UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 March 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Tampa Bay Championship

Funny couple of weeks. We had the bases loaded with big prices after two rounds at the Honda and did not show a return. Charles Howell III was of particular frustration there. Last week was just a bad, bad week where, after about 9 holes of the event our chances were gone! We lost all 8 points invested which pushes us down to a 39.25pt loss for the year. Not good and must do better this week.

So here we go. Again I am going to skip ‘Europe’. The Avantha Masters in India is at a course that all the Indians have played many times but very few of the European players have. It is very hard to read the Indian Tours form into a European Tour event as the pressures etc are so different. It all just looks very confusing and best left alone. However, one thing is for sure. The European Tour’s worldwide recruitment drive really is in full swing. Last week they recruited a winner of a little South African event who is now fully exempt on Tour. This is a guy who was retrospectively disqualified from the Russian Open for cheating. He knowingly signed for a 68 when he had shot 69 on route to a 4th place finish. The guy he played with the first two rounds also reported him for repeatedly moving his ball on the greens. Still, nice to see him keep even more Tour School and Challenge Tour graduates out of getting a start in an event. The Tour is so backwards now and policies so outdated that being a European and going through the old system of Tour School or Challenge Tour seems to be a waste of time as you can barely get a start in any event, let alone a decent sized one. Things need to change or the Tour will continue to die.

Anyway, back to business. The Tampa Bay Championship at Copperhead, Innisbrook Resort, Florida. The weather looks great after slight winds on day 1. Long hitters like Gary Woodland have won here (tipped by me at 100/1!) and short hitters like Donald and Furyk have also won. Garrigus finished runner up to Donald last year which proves that the 7340 yards does not discriminate against short or long hitters. There is not huge emphasis on hitting greens or fairways either. Scrambling as we know is always important but here the challenge seems easier than most venues. So, it is hard to separate the players or find the profile that fits.

Course form wise Singh, Simpson, Howell III and Senden are of interest. But Senden has been distinctly average so far in 2013, mainly due to poor driving, which is worrying as it is normally his strength. Howell III does not play. Webb Simpson is in decent form despite driving it badly. He ranks 14th in greens despite being 163rd in total driving. He used to drive it great and can bounce back but on a course where holes meander left to right and right to left through trees you would have to think a good driver may sneak an advantage and the 18/1 therefore looks short enough. Singh has been steady but unspectacular this year. His stats are very average and even at 100/1 I have no real interest in backing the veteran.

I have five players I like the look of this week. Four of which seem to represent good value. Brendon De Jonge is 66/1 which is not big by any means but I do like his chances this week. He finished 5th here in 2011 and will appreciate a test a little more lenient in decent weather. He finished 11th last week in Puerto Rico on -15, the third time in 8 starts where he has broken the 15 under mark which backs up the theory for liking good weather and scoreable courses. He ranks 4th in total driving and 19th in greens too. Like I said 66/1 is not great, but it is ok.

Matt Jones is my next pick at 125/1. Now I am not picking him for outstanding form but it is solid. 15-23-mc-30-18-14. But again he has broken the 14 under mark in half of his six starts. The reason I like him this week is a golden combination of 5th in total driving and 4th in scrambling. 14th in scoring and 5th in the all round is pretty good too. Statistically he looks ready and 125/1 looks good to me despite a poor record at Copperhead.

Brian Stuard is next up. This guy is under the radar in my view. Here is a guy who ranks 21st in driving accuracy and 8th in both putting and scoring. He finished 4th last week in Puerto Rico, his second top 5 of the year after a 5th in the Sony in Hawaii and his third top 10 in six starts with no missed cuts. He is playing great and 100/1 looks good.

I was going to put Kevin Stadler in next but I have changed my mind. He is as big as 125/1 this week which really caught my eye but looking at his course form and recent form I am going to leave him out. His last three events he has finished 42-58-72 and he is a streaky, confidence type player.

Billy Horschel has had a solid year so far. 54-10-39-11-28-46. Scores of -5, -21, -2, -16, -6, +6. His last event, the Honda was better than it looks. 66-69-81-70. If you remember the third day of the Honda it blew a gale and the native Floridian obviously did not enjoy that challenge. He should not have to worry about that factor this week. He ranks 6th in total driving, 5th in birdies per round and 15th in scoring. He can be backed at 110/1 with Bet 365 and 100/1 generally, which seems fair.

Tampa Bay Championship

1pt each way Brendon De Jonge @ 66/1
1pt each way Matt Jones @ 125/1
1pt each way Brian Stuard @ 100/1
1pt each way Billy Horschel @ 100/1 (125/1 Bet 365)

2013 running total = -39.25 pts. This week’s investment 8 points. This weeks P&L = -8 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.