UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 June 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

US Open

US Open (In Running after round 3)

To Win


Sim Best Bet: 33.25 points Dustin Johnson @ 3.6 (with Betfair, Boylesports) (-33.25)

Justin Thomas and Charlie Hoffman are nearly good enough value to back, well Hoffman is good value but his chance to win is only 1.5%. Thomas would have to drift to 90/1 to back, currently 70/1 and 80/1 in a place.


US Open (In Running after round 2)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 13.62 points Brooks Koepka @ 17 (with Betfair, BetVictor) (+217.92)


US Open (In Running after round 1)


To Win


Sim Value Bet: 5.02 points Brooks Koepka @ 110 (with Betfair) (+547.18)



US Open 2018

I have friends who have been fortunate to play many of the best golf courses in the world. They have played many of the bucket list venues. Augusta, Pebble, Thracian Cliffs in Bulgaria, Les Bordes in France etc. If Shinnecock Hills is on their list in nearly always ranks number one.

This surprises me a little. It looks a pleasant course but there are no sea views, no tall trees, no dramatic water features. So what is the draw? Why is one of the oldest, most traditional golf clubs in the United States held in such high esteem?

Well, it is hard for me to answer this question as I have never been there! I didn't even go to US Open Qualifying this year for the first time in years. The first point probably has to be it fits the criteria of an ultra exclusive Club. Even if it is a poor course people will always list ultra exclusive venues high amongst their favourite courses just to let you know they have been there! But from what I have read and heard it is to do with the natural elements and the way the land and course flow to accommodate them. It is a vast open space that looks flat, but the course is full of wavey, flowing undulations with beautifully sculptured bunkers framing greens and long rough defining the fairways. It appears a simple formula, but this corner of South Hampton, Long Island is loved and respected around the world. The 7th green debacle of the 2004 US Open the only blemish on its long history.

The original 12 holes were designed and built by Willie Davies in 1891, redesigned to 18 holes by William Flint in 1937 and more recently tweaked by Coore and Crenshaw, of Pinehurst, Streamsong and Bandan Dunes fame. Bill and Ben made the course longer and wider. Some fairways have been squeezed a little for this week, but it is not the most over penal test from the tee. With only two par 5s it is not necessarily one for the bombers either. It will be firm and fast and won't play close to the advertised 7445 yards. This is the fifth US Open to be played at Shinnecock and it is the only venue to host in 3 separate centuries. But who is going to win this week?

Well, the boring answer is Dustin Johnson. He was spot on last week at the FedEx St Jude and, although he was not tipped on here, myself and a couple of my big private punters were on from the start. We and Dustin barely broke a sweat.

DJ could not have asked for more in the redesign. They added length, widened the fairways by an average of 15 yards and reshaped some of the yawning bunkers protecting the greens. The rough frames the fairways at a playable 4 inches.

Going into The Masters the best players in the world all seemed to be bang on and it was hard to separate them. Dustin was the only one maybe not quite firing. This has flipped and now and Dustin seems bang on and there are questions about the rest. Rory doesn't win as often as we think he should and if his long game is not on he can't get it around in a competitive score. Thomas is hit and miss and his best finishes of late have been when coming from off the pace rather than having legitimate chances to win. Day is playing well and his putting is on a different level to everyone else, but can you back a guy who misses more than half the fairways he aims at to win a US Open? Fowler has just become engaged, should be in buoyant mood and should not be dismissed. This has a links feel and he is one of the best at both US Open golf and links golf. Spieth's putting has finally caught up with him. He was always a questionable short putter and now he isn't making so many of the long ones.

So Dustin is going into this with the full package. You could argue Rose, maybe Day, maybe Fowler and Rahm are also playing well and have the game to win here. Out of those five players Dustin, when on, is the best player. Dustin also goes well on traditional old course like this and Riviera, Pebble etc. I really like his chances. Ranking 1st in par 3, par 4 and par 5 scoring is also in his favour. I would be 13/2 Dustin, back him at 9/1.

Rahm I see as maybe his biggest threat. He is drawn in an all Spanish group with Cabrera Bello and Garcia which he will love. He is the longest hitter on Tour, 12th in greens in regulation and third in birdies and better. He is also a great guy to bet on in the respect he never gives up, never stops fighting. He proved he likes courses like this with his dominating Irish Open win last year and comes into this off a win in his home Open and a 5th at Colonial. There's a lot to like about Rahm at 24 (on Betfair), but I would be 24 as well.

When looking for value elsewhere amongst the most likely winners I would put forward defending champion Brooks Koepka. He has come back from injury well and is an all round strong player. Last year, when the scoring went deep, it really suited him and his aggressive play. Although the forecast is perfect and scoring may be better than normal, I still think this may be too much of a grind for him. I say that but look at his US Open form leading up to his win, 4-18-13. The 4th was at Pinehurst, note the Coore and Crenshaw redesign there too. Brooks alongside Dustin and Rahm have big chances and you can take 25/1 about Brooks, a player I make 18/1.

Matsuyama and his excellent long game represent some value. Injury and poor putting put an end to the momentum that looked set to make him world number one last year. He hasn't lost it and could impress again this week. He hits it so well and has played well at the Hero in Albany which plays firm and fast like this. I would be 25/1 and 40/1 available. Leishman loves a Major test and 66/1 is very fair, I would be 40/1. Aussies love it hard and fast!

So my numbers throw out Dustin as a 13.1% chance to win. From a value perspective it highlights Pat Perez as the guy to be with. He won the OHL last year and had a 2nd at the Wells Fargo in a standout season. This season he has won the CIMB and posted a 2nd in New Orleans and a 4th at the Sentry TOC. I am not sure how you can back him at 550 on Betfair. I have him at 80. I know he hasn't been the most consistent of late and has a poor US Open record (made 2 cuts in 5 starts and zero top 25s) but he is the 32nd best player in the world and finished 15th in the FedEx Cup last year. He is great value this week, as long as he doesn't lose his head!

My pick is Paul Casey. His stats remain strong, he looks sharp enough and he has been one of the most consistent players in the world over the past 3 years, although his win rate has been very poor relatively. When he putts average he contends. When he won this year at Valspar it looked as though the floodgates would open. They haven't. In fact he is 9 straight events without a top 25. Back issues have been part of the story but the rest remains unexplained. The good news about this poor run is his price has become very attractive. He would be a 25 to 33/1 chance a few months ago for this. 66/1 looks a price worth taking, I am 28/1.

If you wanted to take a real chance on one Cole Miller could be your man. 1500/1 is big enough to chance about a decent College player who turned pro in May. Cole was a first-team all-Big Ten player at Penn State and played a Mackenzie Tour event last week finishing 23rd. He shot 69-66-67-72. He could be worth a pound or two for some fun.

(My prices below selections)



US Open


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 4.65 points Dustin Johnson @ 10.5 (with Betfair) (-4.65)
Sim Value Bet: 2.00 points Pat Perez @ 560 (with Betfair) (-2)
My Bet: 2.51 points Paul Casey @ 70 (with Betfair) (-2.51)

Top 5


Sim Best Bet: 10.78 points Dustin Johnson @ 3.7 (with Betfair Sportsbook) (+29.11)
Sim Value Bet: 6.96 points Pat Perez @ 56 (with Betfair Sportsbook) (-6.96)
My Bet: 13.52 points Paul Casey @ 15 (with Betfair Sportsbook) (-13.52)


Top 10


Sim Best Bet: 25.40 points Paul Casey @ 7.5 (Paddy Power) (-25.40)
Sim Value Bet: 14.50 points Pat Perez @ 26 (Betfair Sportsbook) (-14.50)
My Bet: 14.61 points Francesco Molinari @ 7.5 (Paddy Power) (-14.61)


Top 20


Sim Best Bet: 26.73 points Henerik Stenson @ 2.64 (Unibet) (+43.64)
Sim Value Bet: 27.05 Pat perez @ 11 (Betfair Sportsbook) (-27.05)
My Bet: 25.40 points Francesco Molinari @ 3.5 (Betfair Sportsbook) (-25.40)


First Round Leader

Sim Best Bet: 2.00 points Brooks Koepka @ 34 (Unibet) (-2)
Sim Value Bet: 2.00 points Jhonattan Vegas @ 200 (Betfair) (-2)
My Bet: 2.00 points Hideki Matsuyama @ 46 (Unibet) (-2)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

44.16 points Dustin Johnson to beat Rory McIlroy @ 1.83 (+36.65)
57.33 points Phil Mickelson to beat Bubba Watson @ 1.80 (+45.86)





2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 953.06 points


This week's P&L = +744.21
This week’s investment = 333.49 points


This week's Outright P&L = -63.85
This weeks's Outright Investment = 174.11 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +808.06
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 159.38points



2018 Total P&L = -46.94

2018 Total Investment = 14480.46 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = +57.21
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 6651.56 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -104.15
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 8109.25 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

110%

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
£100
To Lose
Ex V.
Dustin
10%
10.00

7.64
13.1%
3%
900
87%
30.91
Thomas
6%
17.70

17.82
5.6%
0%
1670
94%
-0.69
Koepka
4%
26.00

18.03
5.5%
2%
2500
94%
44.22
McIlroy
6%
17.00

21.35
4.7%
-1%
1600
95%
-20.37
Rose
6%
17.20

23.61
4.2%
-2%
1620
96%
-27.16
Rahm
4%
24.00

23.93
4.2%
0%
2300
96%
0.28
Fowler
5%
22.00

24.83
4.0%
-1%
2100
96%
-11.39
Matsuyama
3%
39.00

26.83
3.7%
1%
3800
96%
45.35
Casey
1%
67.00

27.85
3.6%
2%
6600
96%
140.54
Spieth
4%
24.00

28.77
3.5%
-1%
2300
97%
-16.58
Day
5%
19.70

29.17
3.4%
-2%
1870
97%
-32.46
Stenson
3%
37.00

30.04
3.3%
1%
3600
97%
23.17
Leishman
1%
67.00

38.74
2.6%
1%
6600
97%
72.96
Fleetwood
2%
55.00

45.51
2.2%
0%
5400
98%
20.84
Molinari
1%
74.00

51.75
1.9%
1%
7300
98%
42.99
Reed
2%
54.00

52.05
1.9%
0%
5300
98%
3.74
Mickelson
3%
38.00

55.09
1.8%
-1%
3700
98%
-31.02
Oosthuizen
1%
67.00

57.15
1.7%
0%
6600
98%
17.24
Noren
1%
69.00

64.25
1.6%
0%
6800
98%
7.39
Finau
1%
108.00

74.74
1.3%
0%
10700
99%
44.50
Perez
0%
523.00

77.92
1.3%
1%
52200
99%
571.18
Grace
2%
41.00

79.13
1.3%
-1%
4000
99%
-48.18
Kuchar
1%
98.00

93.25
1.1%
0%
9700
99%
5.09
Woods
4%
25.00

97.97
1.0%
-3%
2400
99%
-74.48
Garcia
1%
78.00

99.78
1.0%
0%
7700
99%
-21.83
Simpson
1%
78.00

101.90
1.0%
0%
7700
99%
-23.45
Miller
0%
1501.00

101.90
1.0%
1%
150000
99%
1373.00
Grillo
1%
171.00

108.73
0.9%
0%
17000
99%
57.28
Bradley
0%
238.00

114.96
0.9%
0%
23700
99%
107.04
Scott
1%
98.00

116.95
0.9%
0%
9700
99%
-16.20
Cabrera Bello
1%
152.00

117.22
0.9%
0%
15100
99%
29.67
Watson
1%
108.00

124.78
0.8%
0%
10700
99%
-13.44
Fisher
0%
399.00

126.63
0.8%
1%
39800
99%
215.09
Woodland
0%
201.00

130.38
0.8%
0%
20000
99%
54.17
Poulter
0%
218.00

137.36
0.7%
0%
21700
99%
58.71
Stricker
0%
428.00

137.92
0.7%
0%
42700
99%
210.31
Harman
0%
272.00

139.41
0.7%
0%
27100
99%
95.10
Zach
0%
228.00

141.63
0.7%
0%
22700
99%
60.99
Henley
0%
399.00

142.96
0.7%
0%
39800
99%
179.10
Walker
1%
108.00

143.64
0.7%
0%
10700
99%
-24.81
Stanley
1%
146.00

148.81
0.7%
0%
14500
99%
-1.89
Uihlein
0%
272.00

153.21
0.7%
0%
27100
99%
77.53

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