UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 July 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Open Championship

The Open - Outright
2 points each way Sergio Garcia @ 25/1 (+12.5)
1 point each way Zach Johnson @ 66/1 (-2)
1 point each way Charl Schwartzel @ 66/1 (-2)
0.75 points each way Chris Wood @ 90/1 (-1.5)
0.5 points each way Jon Rahm @ 250/1 (-1)
0.5 points each way Steve Stricker @ 250/1 (+31.25)
0.25 points each way James Heath @ 750/1 (-0.5)

The Open - To Finish in the Top 20
2 points Steve Stricker @ 6/1 (+12)
2 points Jon Rahm @ 7/1 (-2)
1 point James Heath @ 25/1 (-1)


The Open - To Make the Cut
2 points James Heath @ 13/8 (Paddy Power) (-2)

The Open - Top Senior
2 points Vijay Singh @ 11/4 (-2)

The Open Championship - Day 1 Three Balls
2 points Jon Rahm @ 6/4 to beat Wang and Palmer (-2)
2 points Charl Schwartzel @ 11/8 to beat Casey and Na (-2)

3 points Andy Sullivan @ 4/5 to beat Kodaira and Hahn (+2.4)
2 points Dustin Johnson @ 23/20 to beat Kaymer and Knox (-2)

The Open Championship - Day 2 Three Balls
3 points Shugo Imahira @ 5/2 to beat Manassero and Henley (-3)

The Open Championship - Day 2 Matches
2 points Charl Schwartzel @ 3/4 to beat Knox (+1.5)

The Open - Top Asian
1 point each way Shugo Imahira @ 12/1 (-2)

Three Balls and matches will be posted tomorrow and sent to those signed up to 'specials and in running'.


This week's P&L = +34.65
This week’s investment = 35.5 points

This week's Outright P&L = +36.75
This weeks's Outright Investment = 10.5 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -2.1
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 25 points


2016 Total P&L = -50.14 points

2016 Total Investment =  1021.1 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  +22.05 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 228 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -66.24 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 798.1 points







The Open Championship - Day 2 Three Balls

I like Scott Gregory to win his 3 ball v Duval and Lyle but think 5/6 about an amateur who was leaking on the back 9 in rough conditions is maybe not the best bet. I like Andy Sullivan to beat Hahn and Kodaira but again, 4/6 is decent odds on, in what could be a wild day. Same story with Garcia, he should beat Bradley and Lahiri but the weather could make it closer.

I am going to take Shugo Imahira to beat Manassero and Henley @ 5/2. He putted well to shoot -3, putting could be key tomorrow and Henley won't like the conditions.

3 points Shugo Imahira @ 5/2 to beat Manassero and Henley


The Open Championship - Day 2 Matches
In the 18 hole matches I am going to take Schwartzel to beat Knox. Schwartzel has new equipment (PXG big money deal) but his simple technique and quality ball striking goes well in the wind and rain. Knox, although Scottish, may not deal with it so well. Despite his lofty FedEx Cup rank, he is not in the same league as Charl

2 points Charl Schwartzel @ 3/4 to beat Knox

The Open Championship - Top Asian
I am also going to side with Shugo Imahira in the top Asian market. I was tempted with the 500/1 on the outright but 12/1, 1/4 the odds first 3 in the top Asian market seems worth and interest.

1 point each way Shugo Imahira @ 12/1



(Already Advised)
This looks like one of the trickiest puzzles to solve of the year. We have most of the top players in the world playing well, not many of the challengers to the top guys doing much of note and a lot of outsiders who fit a rather strange profile of Troon winners.

Let me try and explain the "strange profile". It starts with past Troon Champions.

Arthur Havers 1923, +7, finished 7th, 4th, 12th in previous 4 Opens leading into his sole Major victory.

Bobby Locke 1950, -9, hit a hook, great putter, won it the year before and had an incredible Open record, 4 wins.

Arnold Palmer 1962, -12, great all around aggressive player, hit it long with a draw and putted very well. Finished 2nd and 1st before winning his second Open in 3 starts here.

Tom Weiskopf 1973, -12, finished 7th year before and won this on 4th appearance in The Open. Great swing, long and high ball hitter.

Tom Watson 1982, -4, was his 4th Open win in 8 starts, won his 5th the following year, hit a draw, great putter. Great Open record.

Justin Leonard 1997, -12, His win at Troon came on his 4th Open start, previous form was poor, MC,DNP,58,MC, win. Short, low ball hitter, good pitcher and putter.

Todd Hamilton 2004, -10, Missed cut in '92, 45th in '96, missed cut '03, win '04. Hits it short, on a pretty hard fade, nothing stand out with his game. When he won he did not rank inside top 10 in driving accuracy, greens in regulation, putts per GIR, one putt percentage, three putt avoidance, birdies or better or scrambling. In fact I have no idea how he won in a great line up! He was just better than average throughout.

Looking at winners of British Amateurs at Troon we see Alan Dunbar and Gary Wolstenholme. Dunbar has not really kicked on and Wolstenholme is a very short hitter with a good short game and can really putt.

So there is the 'strange profile' we have to work with. There is a slight biased towards having contended in an Open previously but it is not significant and you can be short or long hitter, hit a fade or draw, hit it high or low, or in Todd Hamilton's case not be very good at anything at all! However, it does help to be a good putter and this is perhaps the easiest test at Troon. There is not a huge amount to the greens and although 1 putt averages are fairly standard for Tour averages, 3 putt avoidance is low. In 2004, 17 of the players who made the cut did not have a 3 putt all week, very rare for a Major Championship. So we are looking to separate this field on putting ability on easy greens!

The one thing that is for sure is that the favourites all come here in good form. Not all at he top of their games but each have shown enough to make a decent case for them here, none of them would have to improve too much to be on top form, they are all close and hard to argue against. This is how I see the week through different simulations.

Top Ten on Open Form

-11 Adam Scott
-10 Jordan Niebrugge
-9 Chris Kirk
-9 Sergio Garcia
-9 Zach Johnson
-8 Dustin Johnson
-8Anthony Wall
-8 Hideki Matsuyama
-7 Steve Stricker
-7 Jordan Spieth
-7 David Howell
-7 Steven Alker
-7 Robert Streb

Top Ten on Season Form

-12 Jason Day
-11 Rory McIlroy
-11 Jon Rahm
-9 Dustin Johnson
-8 Jordan Spieth
-8 Rafael Cabrera Bello
-8 Sergio Garcia
-8 Danny Willett
-8 Branden Grace
-7 Adam Scott
-7 Charl Schwartzel
-7 Bubba Watson
-7 Justin Rose
-7 Henrik Stenson
-7 Phil Mickelson
-7 Byeong-Hun An
-7 Matt Kuchar

Top 10 on Predicted Form

-13 Dustin Johnson
-13 Rory McIlroy
-12 Jon Rahm
-12 Sergio Garcia
-12 Jason Day
-11 Vijay Singh
-10 Chris Wood
-10 Matt Kuchar
-10 Martin Kaymer
-10 Andy Sullivan
-10 Alexander Noren
-10 Lee Westwood
-10 Rafael Cabrera Bello
-10 Henrik Stenson

It is tricky building in the total factors. For example, Troon has a little microclimate. It can be raining a little further South on the coast at Turnberry and further North but Troon can remain dry, which I have been extremely thankful for on a number of my visits, but there is forecast heavy rain on Friday afternoon. This obviously can build in a little draw bias but it also means may be more drivers hit on the weekend in freshening wind and less run from the tee. A lot of Troon strategy is playing short, away or potentially over the fairway bunkers, which can be a very penal if found.

Also, with no real profile to try and find as a player it leaves a lot of question marks. There are a couple of tee shots that are really tough. 11 along the railway is one where you can't really see the fairway, there is no miss and into the wind you almost have to hit driver. You will need confidence with the driver at times and perhaps the biggest tee shots just after the turn slightly favour a fader. There are also plenty of wedge approaches on the front side, which is (depending on wind direction) where players will build their score.

Here is my overall simulation top 10.

Overall Top 10

-10 Dustin Johnson (9/1)
-10 Sergio Garcia (25/1)
-10 Jason Day (9/1)
-9 Rory McIlroy (10/1)
-9 Adam Scott (22/1)
-8 Jordan Spieth (12/1)
-8 Jon Rahm (250/1)
-7 Charl Schwartzel (66/1)
-7 Zach Johnson (66/1)
-7 Phil Mickelson (40/1)
-7 Henrik Stenson (28/1)
-7 Chris Wood (90/1)
-7 Steve Stricker (250/1)

Ok, so lets back Sergio @ 25/1. One feels like he has served his apprenticeship and is playing well. His last 3 events he has finished 1-5-5. He has the one of the best ever performances in an Open without winning, in 2014 he beat the average score per round by 4.52 shots. That performance would have won him any other Open from 2011-2015. He just ran into an inspired Rory that week. He has 9 top 10s and sits 4th in all time earnings at The Open.

I think we also go with defending Champion Zach Johnson. We have seen many past winners at Troon have performed well in their previous Open and with an emphasis on wedges and putting in the scoring area of the course and not much emphasis on distance, this looks like a good fit. He has started putting well again with a 8th at the US Open and a 10th at Firestone, a course that really does not set up well for him, in his two last starts, he looks ready to make another bold bid.

Schwartzel also looks fairly priced at 66/1. He has finished in the top 20 in four of The Opens since 2010 and has strong form all year. He is solid throughout the bag and comes here off the back of a 5th and 7th on his last two starts. He is a proven winner and needs to mix it up with the big boys a little more, he has the ability and this would be a good time to start.

Chris Wood has been playing some really nice stuff this past couple of months and it has gone fairly unnoticed, apart from his Wentworth win. But since then he has finished 6th in Austria, 23rd in the US Open and 11th in the French Open. There is so much hype around players like Willett, Westwood, Rory, McDowell etc coming into Majors that he has the luxury of being under the radar. He is definitely over priced at 90/1. He has played well at The Open before finishing 5th as an Amateur in 2008 and 3rd the following year as a pro. I can see him having another solid week, maybe coming from off the pace to post a number on Sunday, again under the radar!

Finally, lets throw a couple of big prices in there. I am fairly bullish about Jon Rahm, as is Jon Rahm about Jon Rahm, but I think we could both be right. He has huge ability and I expect him to once again outrun his price of 250/1. Also worth an interest for a top 20 at . Same goes for Stricker. 250/1 is huge. He hasn't played the last 3 Opens but played well in Scotland last week, posting a 67 in the last round and played well in the St Jude Classic before that. If putting does separate them then there is no better than Stricker to have on your side. He doesn't have the fire power of some, but nor did Hamilton or Leonard. The price makes him worth a punt.

One other guy, just as a gut feeling punt, to keep on side this week is James Heath. He won on the Challenge Tour in Scotland a couple of weeks ago, qualified for The Open and then finished 3rd in Slovakia last week. He is playing great, has enormous ability and potential, and has shown his love for links when putting in a quite incredible performance at the Lytham Trophy in 2004 to win by 10 and smash Tom Lehman's 1996 Open winning total. At 750/1 he is worth some small change.

(Already Advised)
The Open - Outright
2 points each way Sergio Garcia @ 25/1 (+12.5)
1 point each way Zach Johnson @ 66/1 (-2)
1 point each way Charl Schwartzel @ 66/1 (-2)
0.75 points each way Chris Wood @ 90/1 (-1.5)
0.5 points each way Jon Rahm @ 250/1 (-1)
0.5 points each way Steve Stricker @ 250/1 (+31.25)
0.25 points each way James Heath @ 750/1 (-0.5)

The Open - To Finish in the Top 20
2 points Steve Stricker @ 6/1 (+12)
2 points Jon Rahm @ 7/1 (-2)
1 point James Heath @ 25/1 (-1)


The Open - To Make the Cut
2 points James Heath @ 13/8 (Paddy Power) (-2)

The Open - Top Senior
2 points Vijay Singh @ 11/4 (-2)

The Open Championship - Day 1 Three Balls
2 points Jon Rahm @ 6/4 to beat Wang and Palmer (-2)
2 points Charl Schwartzel @ 11/8 to beat Casey and Na (-2)

3 points Andy Sullivan @ 4/5 to beat Kodaira and Hahn (+2.4)
2 points Dustin Johnson @ 23/20 to beat Kaymer and Knox (-2)

The Open Championship - Day 2 Three Balls
3 points Shugo Imahira @ 5/2 to beat Manassero and Henley (-3)

The Open Championship - Day 2 Matches
2 points Charl Schwartzel @ 3/4 to beat Knox (+1.5)

The Open - Top Asian
1 point each way Shugo Imahira @ 12/1 (-2)

Three Balls and matches will be posted tomorrow and sent to those signed up to 'specials and in running'.


This week's P&L = +34.65
This week’s investment = 35.5 points

This week's Outright P&L = +36.75
This weeks's Outright Investment = 10.5 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -2.1
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 25 points


2016 Total P&L = -44.19 points

2016 Total Investment =  1021.1 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  +22.05 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 228 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -66.24 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 798.1 points

2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.


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