UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 July 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Open Championship

We lost 9 points last week. Rose was our best performer. He recovered from a poor front nine on day one to get into contention on the last day. He was bogey free for his last 36 holes but could not make the birdies to contend in a low scoring tournament. A couple of shots better and he would have snuck a place on a packed leaderboard. Llyod Saltman showed signs of inspiration but every time he got going he fell back. Couch did his typical plodding thing as he does at the moment. Middle of the pack. David Toms withdrew after nine holes with a hip injury that will keep him out of this weeks Open Championship. We slid back to +124.8 points.

So this week is The Open, the biggest event of the year. The one to win. But who will win? I am torn. I look at the market and it is dominated by ‘the new breed’. Mcilroy is favourite. He was obviously hugely impressive at The US Open and has a decent Open record. If he is still in the same mood he will be very hard to beat but he has not played since and there is no guarantee that he will be as good. All seems a little risky at 8/1. Westwood seems like a great bet. He fits the profile of a potential champion. He drives it better than anyone, his iron play is pure and the only question mark is his short game. He has 5 top 3’s in his last 7 Majors including the last two Opens. It could well be his time and he appears to be an each way banker. 12/1 to win, 3/1 the place. It certainly makes some appeal, but I think there is better value elsewhere.

Donald makes golf look so simple. He does the easy things so well. Gets up and down when he should, holes the putts when he should, he is patient and effective. Can he win? Definitely. Anyone who putts as well as him can win on any course at any time. However 12/1 is not a great price for someone with his Major record. Kaymer does not interest me at 25/1. He is changing his swing as often as he is changing his caddy and I am not sure he is ready for this. Garcia is massively underpriced. He has a chance but that’s all. 33/1 is poor. He has flattered to deceive this year. He has put together some good rounds but has not finished tournaments off. Mainly due to being an awful putter under pressure. The BMW International where he finished second was perhaps the exception, fortunately for him as otherwise he would not even be in the field this week. I would include Matt Kucher, Nick Watney and Jason Day in this category of the ‘new breed’. There is rightly a lot of buzz about these players and this has shortened their prices considerably. This means the value lies with the older, more experienced, seasoned campaigners.

Phil Mickelson does not have the best Open record. Just one top ten in seventeen starts. Maybe he is not in the best form either. But he is going off at a huge price this week. 45/1 is too big to ignore for a four time Major winner who is still 19th in scoring average on the US Tour. He is a genius and drawn with Kuchar and Harrington on what appears to be the right side of the draw at the moment he has to be worth a small interest.

Ernie Els is another who offers fantastic value. 80/1 to win at the venue where he was the first player to post four rounds in the 60’s at The Open. He has a fantastic record in the event and despite looking more than a little dodgy with the belly putter he is good enough to give us a decent run. Remember a dodgy belly putter wielded by Garcia almost won an Open at Carnoustie.

Hunter Mahan is 20th in total driving, 4th in greens in regulation, 5th in birdie average and 4th in all round ranking on the US Tour this year. I think he is underrated here. 70/1 is a good price for someone who should be in the same price category as Kuchar, Day, Kaymer, Garcia etc. I am not sure how he is 3 times the price. He drives it great, enjoyed a relaxing weekend in London before getting to Royal St Georges on Monday. He can get involved.

Steve Striker’s birdie on 18 to win his third John Deere in a row on Sunday is as impressive a birdie as you will ever see to win a tournament. He will arrive here in a confident mood. He is the best putter on the US Tour. He is also the best scrambler and bogey avoider. He also has the best stroke average and birdie average. A very similar player to Donald and three times the price. 35/1 is a good bet about the man who has two previous top 10’s in The Open.

One to throw in at a big price is Thomas Aiken. He is a talented player. Hits it long and putts good. He always seems to be as good as Oosthuizen, Schwartzel, Sterne etc but somehow lets them achieve first and then catches them up. 200/1 is a big price. He is the type of player that when he is hot he goes low but maybe lacks the nerve to contend for all four rounds. Therefore lets take the 125/1 for first round leader too and hope he fires a low one on day one or day four.

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -

The Open

1pt each way Phill Mickelson @ 45/1
1pt each way Ernie Els @ 80/1
3pts each way Steve Stricker @ 35/1
1.5 pts each way Hunter Mahan @ 70/1
0.5pts each way Thomas Aiken @ 200/1

The Open Special Bet

0.5 pts each way Thomas Aiken First Round Leader @ 125/1

2011 running total +124.8 pts This weeks investment 15 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.