UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 February 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Genesis Open and World Super 6

Genesis Open

Tough results to swallow last week. Casey looked like he had it won, and in fairness, this time, he did not do a lot wrong, but he managed to lose. It would probably be fairer to say Mickelson won, but to me it certainly felt like Casey lost. Casey's final round 71 was solid enough, but he just didn't make putts when he needed them. Mickelson's best of the day 65 was class but he did catch a couple of huge breaks. On the 10th his tee shot looked destined for the water, it just carried one part and plugged in the fairway to finish short of the next. On 11 he again hooked perilously close to the hazard (penalty area!) but again he got away with it, in fact he was better off than Casey whose tee ball barely missed the fairway. Anyway, that's golf I guess. It is not always fair.

On that note, I wouldn't be rushing out to back Phil for the US Open. Pebble was soft and the rough was down. June will be very different. Firm and fast with much more penal rough. Phil hasn't got a reliable straight ball in his locker, this is going to be too bigger obstacle to see him complete the Grand Slam, in my view.

On to this week. The Geneis Open is played at Riviera in the Pacific Palisades. Hollywood's golf course has seen its share of celebrities over the years as well as having a tendency to produce great events and winners. Hogan's Alley, as it is often referred to, is a 7322 yard par 71 of classic golf course. It has three very memorable scenes. The elevated tee shot on one, one of the all time great short par 4s, the 10th and a bunker in the middle of the green on the par 3 6th. The course demands shot shaping and ball striking. There are often tight corridors to drive through and therefore moving it both ways is a vital component to finding a winner. Finding the small poa-bentgrass greens is the real challenge. As we mentioned last week, old traditional courses tend to have much smaller, more undulating greens. Here, last year, 53% of greens were found in regulation making it the toughest on Tour. It's all about ball striking. Hence Bubba has won 3 times, Adam Scott is a winner as is Dustin. Hogan's Alley, after all, could only ever be known for ball striking.

Another thing to consider is course knowledge. It appears an important factor here. Over the last 13 years the winners had played at least 5 times previously. Only one beat this, James Hahn on his third start.

I like Dustin Johnson. His form here reads 2-2-4-1-16 and has a 4th and a win in his last four starts. Last week's 45th, in an event he also has a great record, is obviously concerning but he had traveled back from Saudi so I'll put that down to fatigue. He should go well and I would be 13/2 with 9/1 freely available.

I also like Justin Thomas. As far as ball striking goes, nobody is doing it better. He ranks first in strokes gained tee to green and number one in strokes gained approach. He looks the perfect fit. He is also playing his fifth Genesis and although his course form isn't great 41-54-39 his 9th last year provides encouragement. He has two top 3s in his last 3 starts. There's an awful lot to like about him and he is seen as a strong bet. 14/1 is a fair price, I would be 10/1.

I like Fleetwood's profile here. He is a cracking ball striker and will enjoy this test. 40/1 is a good price. This is his second Genesis appearance which, as mentioned, is against him. He has also been in relatively average form so is just passed over this time.

Elsewhere I like DJ, JT, Rahm, Casey, Oosthuizen and Garcia in the 'Top' markets. Rahm, even on debut, is easy to side with here. He looks perfect for the course, which is not dissimilar to Torrey Pines where he goes so well. He has 4 top 10s in his last 4 and I will back him again in that market at 2/1.

Casey, as we know too well, is tough to win with. Which makes the Valspar last year almost a collectors item for us now. We should have some hats made, "I won with Paul Casey." Still he is an ultra consistent performer. Form of 16-mc-2-2 (plus see stats for top 20 finishes over last two years from last week) makes the top 20 price of 13/8 very attractive. He finished 2nd here in 2015 and is on his fifth start too.

The others I will pass on. Leishman looks good statistically but course from isn't so hot. He did finish 5th in 2016 but otherwise 61-59-mc-mc-mc doesn't look encouraging. Plus he seems to have fizzled a little after his hot start to the year. Garcia will have a lot of distractions this week and I imagine he will spend most of the week apologising, as it is impossible to justify, his behaviour in Saudi. Tyrrell Hatton makes appeal but is on debut and his form coming in of mc-38-15 just isn't good enough to warrant getting involved. I had a long look at Couples and Tah Hee Lee for the top 20 market. Rain and cool weather is forecast which won't make managing Couples' back issues easy and, although coming off 8-5 on the Seniors shows he is in good touch, course form (up to 2016) reads 46-mc-mc-mc-mc. He also had the distraction of running an event with Woods this week. It is hard to shake the images of him beating Love III in an epic final round and playoff in the early 90s, but 12/1 just isn't big enough. Tah Hee Lee's form has all come in smaller events. Any steps up in company has proven unfruitful.

To Win

0.25 units Dustin Johnson @ 9/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Justin Thomas @ 14/1 (-0.25)



Top 5

1.25 units Dustin Johnson @ 23/10 (-1.25)
1.25 units Justin Thomas @ 7/2 (+4.38)



Top 10

1 unit Dustin Johnson @ 11/10 (-0.2)
2.25 units Justin Thomas @ 17/10 (+3.83)
1.5 units Jon Rahm @ 2/1 (0)

Top 20

2.25 units Justin Thomas @ 4/5 (+1.8)
3.25 units Paul Casey @ 13/8 (-3.25)
1.75 units Tyrrell Hatton @ 16/5 (-1.75)

72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

2 units Phil Mickelson to beat Bubba Watson @ 1.83 (-2)


Vic Open.

I don't want to get started about terrible events, but this is one. I will back Nick Voke each way in the 54 hole stroke play. He has won 3 of his 20 events as a pro, be it at a lower level, but at 100/1 here he is worth supporting.


Vic Open

Each Way in 54 hole stroke play market (1/4 1-5)


0.25 units each way Nick Voke @ 100/1 (-0.5)


Suncoast Classic (Web.com) (1/4 1-5)

0.25 units each way Brady Schnell @ 250/1 (-0.5)



This week's P&L = +0.06
This week’s investment = 18 units


This week's Outright P&L = +2.06
This weeks's Outright Investment = 16 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -2
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 2 units



2019 Total P&L = +14.08 units

2019 Total Investment = 141.75 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +13.04 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 90.5 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +1.04 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 53.5 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.

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