UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 December 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Indonesian Masters

Indonesian Masters


Player
Odds
BF
My Odds
Diff
Justin Rose
3.75
4.42
3.97
6%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
9
9.55
26
184%
Brandt Snedeker
11
12.4
13
16%
Dylan Frittelli
13
13.4
22
71%
Yusaku Miyazato
23
26
21
-9%
Satoshi Kodaira
29
26
12
-58%
S.S.P. Chawrasia
34
29
66
95%
Shubhankar Sharma
26
32
47
81%
Gavin Green
41
36
20
-51%
Thongchai Jaidee
34
42
84
148%
Lucas Herbert
34
44
77
127%
Scott Vincent
51
44
38
-25%
Younghan Song
41
57
33
-20%
Miguel Tabuena
41

73
78%
Gaganjeet Bhullar
51
52
45
-11%
HyunWoo Ryu
51
62
70
38%
Ajeetesh Sandhu
51
44
91
78%
Shiv Kapur
51
57
37
-27%
Angelo Que
67
67
198
195%
Phachara Khongwatmai
67
67
98
46%
Scott Hend
51
57
34
-32%
Hyunwoo Ryu
51
62
67
31%
Micah Shin
51
71
44
-13%
Prayad Marksaeng
51
71
50
-2%
Jazz Janewattananond
51
67
46
-10%
Poom Saksansin
51
67
42
-17%
Prom Meesawat
67
71
67
-1%
Masahiro Kawamura
81
86
178
120%
Johannes Veerman
126
95
124
-1%
Rattanon Wannasrichan
126
105
45
-64%
Hung Chien-Yao
126
124
98
-22%
Daisuke Kataoka
81
124
57
-30%
Namchok Tantipokakul
126
124
67
-47%
Jake Higginbottom
101
95
258
155%
Rashid Khan
151
124
399
164%
Tirawat Kaewsiribandit
126
124
73
-42%
Panuphol Pittayarat
126
162
71
-44%
Chapchai Nirat
151
171
439
191%
Jyoti Randhawa
151
171
786
420%
Shota Akiyoshi
151
171
283
87%
YiKeun Chang
161
160
44
-72%
Suradit Yongcharoenchai
126
152
88
-31%
Gunn Charoenkul
126
162
66
-48%
Danny Chia
151
171
58
-62%
Liu Yan-Wei
201
190
80
-60%
Adria Arnaus(am)
151
219
52
-65%
Sihwan Kim
151
219
97
-36%
Soomin Lee
126
219
187
49%
Dodge Kemmer
201
238
445
121%
Lee Chieh-Po
401
238
619
54%
Matthew Millar
151
238
171
13%
Nicholas Fung
201
238
188
-6%
Pavit Tangkamolprasert
201
238
85
-57%
Bowen Xiao
201
171
397
98%
John Catlin
176
171
49
-72%
Natipong Srithong
201
171
244
21%
Richard T Lee
151
209
451
199%
Rory Hie
201
209
118
-41%
Siddikur Rahman
201
209
453
125%
Lionel Weber
251
219
173
-31%
Thanyakorn Khrongpha
176
219
248
41%
Arnond Vongvanij
151
238
1023
577%
Giwhan Kim
201
238
147
-27%
Shunya Takeyasu
151
238
83
-45%
Marcus Both
251
285
289
15%
Antonio Lascuna
251
304
444
77%
Chiragh Kumar
251
304
498
98%

Rose
and Snedeker set the standard here. 7/2 and 12/1 respectively looks about right. Aphibarnrat, despite some recent good form looks underpriced at 9/1, I would have him nearer 25/1 despite the lack of depth in the line up. Frittelli looks the real deal and was impressive in Mauritius, even so 12/1 should be nearer 22/1.

I am going to back players with form in the region that look undervalued, a couple have surprisingly strong win percentages or be it against lesser opposition. I think most golf fans and punters underestimate the strength of golf around the world. The 'lower' level tours are unbelievably competitive. Even the Asian Developmental Tour where -28 and better regularly are the winning scores. I don't care what the course looks like and the perceived quality of the fields, numbers like that are good enough to win against anyone. There are so many good players playing the game around the world these days, they are fearless and ruthless against players they believe they are better than, sometimes they just need to take that attitude up a level and this is a good opportunity to do that. They can take aim at
Rose, Snedeker and Aphibarnrat and showcase their quality.

Having said all that, if I was forced to pick a winner it would be
Snedeker. He is fresh and ready after an enforced lay off, looked good on his come back at Sea Island and his putting stroke should be ideally suited by these grainy greens. However, there is not much margin in the 10/1 available.

Instead I am going to take
Satoshi Kodaira at 28/1. The world number 50 has 2 wins this year in 28 events and has won at least once in each of the last 5 years. He has a further 2nd, three thirds, 9 4th-10ths and hasn't missed a cut this season. His form reads 1,10,3,41,5,20,1,wd,8,21). I would have him nearer 12/1.

Gavin Green clinched the Asian Order of Merit last week when he finished 19th in Joburg in an up and down week. There was plenty of good and bad. One thing is for sure is that he has huge ability. He won 10 weeks ago in the Taiwan Masters and was 7th four weeks ago in Manilla. In all he has 1 win, 4 seconds and 2 4th to 10ths. 40/1 available, I have him at half that price.

Rattanon Wannasrichan I would have at 45/1 in my book so 125/1 looks a good bet. 1 win, 1 second and 4 4-10ths looks great. This is offset a fair bit with real inconsistency. 12 missed cuts in 24 starts and a lot of these have been ADT events, which is a worry. The positives are he won the Thailand Open on the Asian Tour, finished 5th five weeks ago in the Indonesian Open and 6th last week on the ADT. He is worth chancing.

My final pick is the young Korean
Yikeun Chang. He has 2 wins in 20 events this season, both in Korea, the Korean Open and Mega Open. He has a 5th in Bangladesh Open and a 2nd in Yeangder Heritage in Taiwan. Only 3 missed cuts. 150/1 general and 160/1 with the bet limiting BET365 looks very fair value about a player I would have between 40 and 45/1.

Indonesian Masters - Outright

3.57 points each way Satoshi Kodaira @ 28/1 (non runner)
2.5 points each way Gavin Green @ 40/1 (-5)
0.67 points each way Yikeun Chang @ 150/1 (non runner)
0.8 points each way Rattanon Wannasrichan @ 125/1 (-1.6)


Indonesian Open - 72 Hole Matches (Skybet - tie no bet)

5 points Dylan Frittelli @ 11/10 to beat Kiradech Aphibarnrat (-5)
5 points Gavin Green @ Evs to beat Shubhanker Sharma (-5)
5 points Younghan Song @ 5/6 to beat Miguel Tabuena (void, Tabuena a N/R)






This week's P&L = -16.6
This week’s investment = 30.08 points

This week's Outright P&L = -6.6
This weeks's Outright Investment = 15.08 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -10
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 15 points



2017 Total P&L = -37.24
2017 Total Investment =  1616.44 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  -86.24
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 822.24 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  +49
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 873.3 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
7 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.


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