UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 April 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Maybank Malaysian Open and Valero Texas Open

Wow what a Masters! To try and pick a winner after four holes on Sunday was pretty much impossible which proves how hard it is to try and do it at the start of the week! Charl Schwartzel was the eventual Champion, and well deserved. He is a class act and will win a lot more in the years to come. The Grand Slam is still on! Obviously you have to feel for Rory but we have seen players melt down before when things start going on wrong and we will see it again. When things unravel under pressure it is so difficult to retain or reclaim your clarity of thought. Rory proved his immense talent once again but unfortunately there will always be question marks about the young man who has won only twice in one hundred starts, a mediocre win rate for a player of his ability. Some players bounce back quickly from these disasters like Ross Fisher (shot 84 when leading the BMW Championship before winning the Dutch Open two weeks later), others it haunts them for their whole career. There are only so many times you can take it and Rory has already had a few even at his young age. Chances to win Majors do not happen very often.

So can Rory bounce back this week in Malaysia? I don’t think so. He needs time to reflect. I think he is too intelligent to wipe the Masters from his brain overnight and I am not willing to take that chance at 11/1. Is he really going to be able to stand over a 4ft putt and not think about last week? I think not. Kaymer and Schwartzel are the other two at the top of the market. Kaymer was awful last week. This suits him better but leave me out at 8/1. Schwartzel is a confidence player and he will never be more confident than he is right now and 14/1 is definitely interesting. The change in greens is going to be a big factor as is fatigue. He will be drained after an emotional week and the long journey from Augusta to Malaysia will not help. If he had popped down to Texas for the PGA Tour event I think I would probably be backing him but begrudgingly I will resist from backing him here.

Travel fatigue, jet leg, time to acclimatise, course conditions all suit the Asians so why are the Europeans so underpriced? I want to find a rested Asian at a decent price. Jaidee and Noh are the obvious ones to be with. Jaidee has a brilliant record in Asia the last couple of years and Noh is an exceptional talent. Noh also has a standout record in Malaysia and comes in as defending champion. At 25/1 he makes more appeal than 20/1 Jaidee.

The one I do fancy is Kiradech Aphrinbarnrat. They call him Asia’s John Daly. Fortunately this is because he is rather overweight, overswings and hits it long. Not because he is a red neck lunatic who is upset that he can’t get a sponsor’s invite every week! He won last time out on the Asian Tour at Delhi Golf Club, a course that really should not suit. He is in form, confident and fearless. He has been successful but has always been in Seung-Yul Noh’s shadow. Lets hope they shadow each other up the top of the leaderboard this week.

Another overweight Asian who could go well at a much bigger price is Namchok Tantipokhakul (maybe best to back him online rather than try and say his name over the phone!). He is a young player who shot 65 in the last round of the last tournament of the 2010 Asian Tour season to keep his card. Rounds like this show quality in a player and proves he has guts as well as ability. He has shot a few low ones recently and although unproven at this level he could spring a surprise at 250/1.

Back over to the States. The Velero Texas Open is this weeks event. Whenever I see Texas Open I think Justin Leonard who has a formidable record in the event. He is 66/1 but has shown nothing. Three big performers at last weeks Masters dominate the market. Defending champion Scott 10/1, Ogilvy 12/1 and Laird 16/1. It is 25/1 bar these 3. Laird makes the most appeal but they are all too short for me. Jimmy Walker keeps telling anyone who will listen that he is about to win and to an extent he is backing it up with good performances. He also finished 3rd here last year and lives locally. I had a long look at him at 33/1 but on a course that will test your long game his stats turned me off. 176th in driving accuracy and 134th in greens and somehow 6th in scoring average. Maybe he just misses all the tough weeks off his schedule!

The course is a 7500 yard Greg Norman design. It has the appearance of an Aussie sandbelt course and Aussies go well here with two finishing inside the top five last year. John Senden is a great player and one I can see challenging. Very disappointed to see him only 40/1. I can’t find one here. I like Snedeker but again 33/1 has zero appeal. I am going to leave the Texas Open alone apart from a very small play on my old pal Nate Smith, just for an interest. He popped up again and spent most the week on the first page of the leaderbard in the Shell Houston Open and can give us a value run at 200/1 here.

Last week Geoff Banks went six places in the Masters. Each way backers of Woods, Donald and Ogilvy with the Geoff got a full pay out where others placing their bets with other bookmakers would have won half as much. My each way tip on Tiger then earned us 2.25 points. Crane missed the cut (-2pts). Kuchar had two good rounds and two bad and finished T27 (-4 points). No hole in one let us down in our double with Schwartzel to beat Immelman (-3 points). Dustin Johnson was no where to be seen on day 1 (-2 points). Martin Laird had a great week finishing T20 on debut but was unable to finish in the top 3 from GB & I (-2 points). Mcilroy and Donald got wins in our yankee. Quiros, despite dominating the top Spaniard position ended up tying Jimenez for top Spanish honours (so two doubles and a treble get settled using the dead heat rule). The bet won us 12.39 points as Petterson missed the cut. This meant we showed a 1.64 point profit for the week. Yeah, OK, it is not life changing but a profit is a profit! It means our 2011 running total leaps to 196.47 in front or a profit of £1964.70 to a £10 per point stake.

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -
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Maybank Malaysian Open

1.5 pts each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 25/1
2 pts each way Kiradech Aphribarnrat @ 80/1
0.5pts each way Namchoc Tantipokhakul @ 250/1


Valero Texas Open

0.5 pts each way Nate Smith @ 200/1

Special Bet

2 point double Kaymer to beat Mcilroy @ 4/5 and Jaidee to bt Oosthuizen @ Evs. 72 hole matches.

2011 running total +196.47 pts This weeks investment 11pts


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register’.


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