UA-33754892-1 Archives for 09 November 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Turkish Airlines Open and OHL Classic

Another short preview for this week as I am still away. Last week Matsuyama never really got going and finished 41st after a miserable weekend. The rough was really up and players had to hit fairways. He didn’t. In the Sanderson Farms our only runner, 150/1 chance Fabian Gomez, was up with the leaders. He started the final round 2 shots out of the places before eventually finishing 14th. Yet another player running well at a big price but not quite getting it done.

This week we have the Turkish Airlines Open played at The Montgomerie Maxx Royal in Turkey and the OHL Classic in Mexico.

The Montgomery Maxx is in Belek near Antalya. Scoring went deep here last year when Dubuisson won on 24 under. I have a feeling they are going to try and get the rough up, like they did last week in Shanghai, to try and protect the scoring a little more. It is a strong field with 16 of the world’s top 50 playing.

There is certainly some strength at the top of the market in Garcia (12/1) and Stenson (12/1) but both have not really shown as much as you would have liked of late. Kaymer played well last week and got in the mix, but his chipping continues to be a concern and I am not convinced at 14/1. Dubuisson (20/1) and Donaldson (18/1) finished first and second here last year and can definitely get involved again. Victor withdrew last week but there is no real injury worries etc. He had just played himself out of the event after two rounds and will be fresher for this. Donaldson has become an incredibly consistent performer and is riding a wave of confidence and form that has lasted 18 months and counting. He has to be considered as world class now and doesn’t fear the big occasion.

But the player I am going to back this week is Brendon de Jonge. He lost in a playoff for the McGladery Classic and finished 13th in the CIMB Classic. He is a birdie machine and drives it straight. 50/1 about a confident player of his quality is well worth a play.

The OHL Classic is played at the Greg Norman designed El Camaleón. The course is just under 7000 yards and has suited ball strikers, especially good iron players. The event has moved from February to November so we can expect firmer conditions which should emphasis ball striking yet further.

I think Robert Streb has an obvious chance. He has three top 10’s in a row including a win. He is the form man and leader of the FedEx Cup at this early stage. However, he has not played here before which makes taking 25/1 about him a little off putting. Ben Martin at 33/1 is another I like. He won The Shriners and at 33/1 catches the eye but he has kind of fizzled a little since and missed the cut here last year.

I like Kevin Stadler at 50/1. He is as good a ball striker as anyone in this field and controls his irons incredibly well. He stated a wrist injury as the reason for his withdrawal last week in China but the fact he is here suggests the issue is not too serious. He is worth an interest and has five top 20s here in 7 starts.

Spencer Levin at 66/1 should also be backed. He ranks third in ball striking and lost in a playoff here in 2011. He hasn’t played since The Shriners where he finished 10th after a 21st in the He looks a good price.

Fabian Gomez gets another chance at 100/1. The Argentine should like it here and is in great form finishing 8th at The McGladrey and 14th last week. He hits it short but that isn’t too much of an issue. The rest of his game is very high class and the rookie can go well here on debut.

Turkish Airlines Open

1 point each way Brendon de Jonge @ 50/1
1 point each Jonas Blixt @ 50/1 (added Tuesday on Stadler’s W/D)

OHL Classic

0.5 points each way Fabian Gomez @ 100/1
0.75 points each way Spencer Levin @ 66/1
1 point each way Kevin Stadler @ 50/1 (Withdrawn)

2014 running total =  -84.77 points. This week’s investment 6.5 points. This weeks P&L = -6.5 points

(Already advised) US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.