UA-33754892-1 Archives for 09 June 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The US Open

US Open - In running after round 2

To Win

1.25 units Gary Woodland @ 5/1 (+6.25)

US Open - In running after round 1

To Win

0.25 units Gary Woodland @ 50/1 (+12.5)

The 2019 US Open

Since the 2000 US Open at Pebble Beach only three players that you would associate with accuracy over power have won. G-Mac here in 2010, Furyk at Olympia Fields in 2003 and Webb Simpson at Olympic Club in 2012. This is one of the many US Open misconceptions. Bit like the 'only good putters win at Augusta.'

Being long has always been an advantage on any course. Everyone misses fairways and if you miss them a long way down you still have a chance. Plus, if a long hitter has a straight week he has a huge advantage. Just look at the Strokes Gained Driving stats. There are not many medium to short hitters in the top 100 and the top is littered with guys that hit less than 55% of fairways. Rory ranks 144th in driving accuracy yet dominates the Strokes Gained Driving stats and is considered and phenomenal driver of the ball. Bubba, 2nd on SGD is 157th in accuracy. Dustin, 3rd in SGD and 192nd in accuracy. He hits just over 50% of fairways. Furyk hits more fairways than anyone and ranks 120th in SGD.

The one thing I will say is Pebble Beach is fully inclusive. At 7075 yards you don't have to be long to compete. I was at Pebble two weeks ago and I am going to go out on a limb and say it wasn't too bad, I expected it to be brutal. When people say level will win, I would suggest it will be nearer -10 than even par. The USGA have come under huge criticism the last few weeks, they will want to provide a fair test.

Pebble's natural layout doesn't allow it to be tightened much without eliminating bunkers. 11 and 15, and to an extent, the 3rd are slightly narrower than normal. Otherwise it is much the same. The 9th has a new tee 21 yards further back, but they played this in the US Am last year when -2 qualified for the matchplay.

So, the only real difference to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am will be the rough and pin positions. Sure the greens will be a little firmer and faster, but they will also be an awful lot better than February, when they're seeding. The greens could be firmer, but at Pebble only the weather can truly dictate this, there is no sub-air.

Two weeks ago, my impression when playing was a player should be more aggressive from the tee so they can be more defensive/accurate on their approaches. The rough from the tee was really not an issue. It was similar to what one would expect at the PGA at Wentworth. And the grass is weak, not like bermuda or similar. The club gets through it. Don't believe the rough hype.

To find really heavy rough you need to be a long, long way off line. I would imagine they will have fertilised the rough and watered since, but even then the rough is far more penal around the green than from the tee. So, hit lots of drivers, get it miles down there. Nearly all the holes have an entry to the putting surface at the front, you can run it up on to these greens. They nearly all slope back to front so coming up short is fine. Pitching is easy if you need to lay up bar a couple of holes. Missing the greens is where a score can get away from you.

If one chooses to lay back to 'guarantee' a fairway lie, finding the smallest greens on the PGA Tour is very hard. Miss them, then getting up and down is very difficult. Especially if you are short sided or chipping from above the hole. Find a player who is, or can be aggressive from the tee, a strong iron player and a confident putter.

Another misconception is the cream rises to the top at the US Open. Sure, the winners are all fair names but look at the guys in second. Brian Harman, Erik Compton, Michael Thompson, Greg Havret, Ricky Barnes, Rocco Mediate to name a few. Set a course up to allow luck a big chance and you will get some funny results. US Opens are not all about skill, although it does help an awful lot!

It is very competitive at the top of the market and there is a lot to like about many of the market leaders. As a result they are hard to separate and there is not a lot of value amongst them. Rory is now favourite with most firms after his very impressive performance in the Canadian Open. I am happy to put that down as the best performance of the year so far. Still, they make him 8/1 generally, I would be nearer 16/1. I don't fancy him having to make a lot of 4 and 5 foot putts on these undulating greens.

Dustin and Brooks pretty much share second favouritism. Dustin is complicated. I think he is the best player here and I would make him 8/1 favourite. He has outstanding course form (since 2010) (1,1,8,55,mc,2,4,8,41,3,2,45 (inc. US Opens)) but has bad memories from 2010, when blowing a decent lead on Sunday. If anyone can put something like that behind him it is DJ. I think he is the most likely and at 9/1 in a place I wouldn't put anyone off. I would be 16/1 Brooks. His Major form is unreal compared to his regular event form. He is one that is more likely to be aggressive from the tee. There's not much not to like, apart from his price. He finished 8th here on his one start in the AT&T.

Woods and Cantlay come next. Cantlay is 20/1, which is the price I would make him. He has developed into a very impressive all around player. He has no weakness apart from the speed he plays at. Again, you would expect him to go well despite pretty average course form. (9,48,35)

Woods' win here in 2000 was as good as it gets. He is not the same player now, he doesn't have that huge length advantage like he did then. He is still the best iron player out there and that is big at Pebble. I can't be a backer at 12/1, it is just too short. (4,15)

There are a few I shortlisted in the win market, players with a live chance and offer some value. I like Casey. He should have won the AT&T here in February and is a very consistent player. I would be 40/1 with 55/1 available. (41,8,2)

Leishman is another who should enjoy this. He goes well on tough courses and controls his ball well. 75/1 is out there and I would be 50/1, despite his average form at Pebble. (55,mc,mc,21)

Gary Woodland has 4 missed cuts and a 5th at the AT&T and a US Open at Pebble. His poor AT&T form is more about the other two courses than Pebble, where he has actually played pretty well. He is a great iron player and an improved putter. If he doesn't try to play too smart then he could be around the lead come Sunday.

Oosthuizen missed the cut here in the 2010 US Open, which is the last time he played Pebble. His recent form has fizzled of late, but he normally does well at getting ready for Majors. 100/1 looks big for this, it can play like a traditional links course. I would be 66/1.

None of these quite work out as a bet, the only one I am going to back is Webb Simpson. I would be 33/1, 50/1 is general and 55/1 is available in places. He has two top 5s in his last 5 starts including a 2nd in Canada last week. At Hamilton he led the field in scrambling and putting and also ranked 11th in greens in regulation. The greens and rough at Hamilton are not dissimilar. In fact, the overall feel appeared very decent preparation for Pebble. He is 2nd on Tour in scrambling and hits it straight so can be aggressive. I like him at a very fair price. (MC,46,26,MC)

Let's go through some other bets quickly. I am happy to take 20/1 Woodland to finish top 5. He has 7 top 10s this year and sits 9th on the FedEx rankings and 25th in the world. Coming off an 8th in the USPGA we can expect a decent showing from Woodland this week. I would be 9/1 a top 5. He's 80/1 in the win market, I would be 50/1.

I will take Simpson in the same market. You can take 12/1 (13.5 betfair) on Webb finishing top 5. I would be 6/1. He's playing well, has a stellar short game, especially out of the heavy stuff and is putting as well as anyone using the claw armlock method.

This will be Shugo Imahara's 8th consecutive week of tournament golf, but he's playing great so why not. This run started at the Masters where he missed the cut. After that he has posted finishes of 18,2,21,mc (USPGA), 7,9,2. Sure he may be tired but the world number 70 could get involved on a course that suits his length a little better than Augusta and Bethpage. 50/1 a top 10 finish and 18/1 a top 20 appear well worth chancing.

Thomas Pieters is a case of almost but not quite at the moment. He has played plenty in The States this year and has been steady without really clicking. He is likely to have a go at the course and looks a fair price at 18/1 a top 10 and 8/1 a top 20. His last two US starts, in the Byron Nelson and the USPGA, he finished 23rd. Worth a go.

Haotong Li has 3 top 10s in 12 starts this season. He is an impressive, aggressive, free flowing player. He has a great attitude which helps when conditions are a little tougher and he has proven he can play and compete at the highest level. I like him at 16/1 a top 10 and 13/2 a top 20. I really do like Li this week, I fancy him to be right in the mix on Sunday and I think Pebble Beach will inspire him.

Others I like in the top 20 market, more for their price than the type of player they are, are Justin Harding @ 8/1 (I would be 4/1), Thorbjorn Olesen @ 9/1 (5/1), Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 6/1 (4/1), Reavie (who was 2nd here in the AT&T in 2018) @ 9/1 (5/1), Charlie Danielson @ 35/1 (10/1) and Abraham Ancer @ 9/1 (6/1).

To Win

0.25 units Webb Simpson @ 55/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.5 units Gary Woodland @ 20/1 (+10)
0.75 units Webb Simpson @ 12/1 (-0.75)

Top 10

1 unit Shugo Imahara @ 50/1 (-1)
1.5 units Thomas Pieters @ 18/1 (-1.5)
0.5 units Haotong Li @ 16/1 (-0.5)

Top 20

1.75 units Charlie Danielson @ 35/1 (-1.75)
1.5 units Thomas Pieters @ 8/1 (-1.5)
1 unit Justin Harding @ 8/1 (-1)
1 unit Thorbjorn Olesen @ 9/1 (-1)
0.75 units Adri Arnaus @ 25/1 (-0.75)
1 unit Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 6/1 (-1)
0.75 units Chez Reavie @ 9/1 (+6.75)
0.5 units Abraham Ancer @ 9/1 (-0.5)

My Banker

1 unit Haotong Li to finish top 20 @ 13/2 (-1)

My Big Value Play

2.25 units Shugo Imahara to finish top 20 @ 18/1 (-2.25)

First Round Leader

no bet

72 Hole Match Bet (Skybet, tie no bet)

no bet

This week's P&L = +20.75
This week’s investment = 17.5 units

This week's Outright P&L = +2
This weeks's Outright Investment = 16 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +18.75
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 1.5 units

2019 Total P&L = +50.61 units

2019 Total Investment = 500.63 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +25.2 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 383.9 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +25.41 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 116.73 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.