UA-33754892-1 Archives for 09 January 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Sony Open in Hawaii, Jo'burg Open and The Gurjarat Kensville Challenge

Last week was a good start to 2011. It was settling to get off to a good start to follow up our 2010 success. With Geoff Ogilvy a non runner due to cutting his finger on coral pre-tournament the recommended double became a single and Oosthuizen obliged with a playoff win in The African Open at 9/1. Els and Hoffman spent a lot of time justifying our support last week but too many mistakes by both players meant they did not show a return. Robert Garrigus saved the day, the pay off was almost mega, the 125/1 shot lead greens in regulation for the week and posted -24, good enough to tie Johnathon Byrd. Unfortunately the longest hitter on tour three putted the second extra hole to lose. Byrd has now won both of his last two starts. We made a profit of 14.75 points, or £147.50 to a £10 stake. A good start!

Other players who caught the eye last week in Hawaii were Justin Rose, who after a slow start played some great stuff. McDowell obviously, after closing with an 11 under 62 proved that the move to Srixon had not hurt him. Carl Petterson, just an incredible putter and one to watch when scoring goes low round an easy track. Also Tim Clark, he closed with a bogey free 5 under 68, showing he is in good nick.

So to this week, the Sony Open is the first full field event of the year in the States. It is played at the Waialae Country Club. The course was first used for a US Tour event in 1965. It is a relatively flat course and fairly short at 7068 yards, par 70. It is the hardest course on tour to hit fairways and past winners appear to be experienced, straight hitting veterans. It also is apparent that playing the week before has been an advantage. It is also the first outing for nearly all the Tour School and Nationwide Tour graduates.

Nearly all the players that I believe fit the profile and are in the field have not shown enough form so have to be looked over. Zach Johnson, for example, is a former winner but looking at him last week he looks a little off his game. Out of the players who caught the eye last week I think Petterson’s inaccuracy off the tee will hinder him here, same with Rose, McDowell does not play but Tim Clark does. He finds fairways for fun and was 3rd in greens in regulation last week. My concern would be the Bermuda greens but he looked as though he got used to them as the week went on last week and would be no stranger to grain coming from Durban. With the prices on offer he looks good value at 35/1.

I would like to be with Els again this week, his putting was very inconsistent last week and the faster greens here should suit. However, he has a busy week elsewhere this week, hosting his own amateur event, the Els for Autism Golf Challenge. He is a double winner here and is a decent price at 14/1 but I am going to leave him alone.

Like I said, not many fit the profile so I am going to conclude my tips in Hawaii with two generously priced outsiders who can give us a decent run for our money. Paul Stankowski is a past winner here and showed some useful form at the end of last year, he can go well at 200/1. The other is Nate Smith, I played with him in 2009 and he is a useful, individually styled player. He has played some great stuff the last two years and expect to see him involved a number of times this year, he is fearless. Take the 500/1, it is a huge price for someone with his talent.

NateSmithWins
Nate Smith can spring a surprise in Hawaii, get on the 500/1...

The Jo’burg Open is perhaps the hardest golf event to pick the winner. 206 players tee it up this week and many of them are relatively unknown. I know Schwartzel has an incredible record at this venue including a 6 stroke victory here last year, but 4/1 is a laughable price. Coming into this last year he did not look like he knew how to lose and he has not shown that form this year. His results are good, but his 2nd, 4th, 4th finishes so far in the South African swing are flattering, he has not truly contended in the three events, just finishing strong on the final day. I would rather be a layer than a backer at that price.

I can’t see a player with a clear, justifiable chance here but there are a couple of players who look good value. David Dixon is buzzed about his golf at the moment, he is fitter than he has ever been and has found an all round new love for the game, he can go well at 200/1.

Dan Gaunt says that he is finding his game and could go well this week, but I think at 100/1 there are too many question marks over his driving to back him here. Instead I am going to stick with Tyron Van Aswegan. Last week in East London the condition of the course was poor with inconsistent greens, he will appreciate the better conditions here. He made 6 bogies last week but not enough pick ups. Have another go at 150/1.

The last pick of the week is Jeev Milkha Singh. He is playing in the Challenge Tour event in India this week. The obvious market leader at 5/1. Compare this field to the huge, higher quality Jo’burg Open field and then the 5/1 price to Schwartzel’s 4/1 and you soon see Jeev is decent value. He struggled in the States in 2010 but home advantage in a relaxed setting should suit Jeev, who is a class act.

All in it is hard to fancy anyone with a great deal of confidence this week so we will employ the small stake, high return strategy!

Sony Open in Hawaii.

1pts each way Tim Clark @ 35/1
0.5pts each way Nate Smith @ 200/1
0.5pts each way Paul Stankowski @ 200/1


Jo’burg Open.

0.5pts each way David Dixon @ 125/1
0.5pts each way Tyron Van Aswegan @ 150/1

Special Bet.

2 pts win Jeev Milkha Singh @ 5/1 (The Gujarat Kensville Challenge)


2011 running total +14.75 pts This weeks investment 8 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register’.
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