UA-33754892-1 Archives for 09 December 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Dunhill Championship, Australian PGA and Iskandor Johor Open

Last week was a tough week to watch. Bubba, who we backed win only finished 2nd in Thailand. Peter Senior who I said “showed glimpses at the Talisker Masters sharing 6th, but surely the old pro can’t spring a surprise at 66/1 on a course he has won on before? Stranger things have happened but not worth a go in my opinion” won the Australian Open. I asked the right question but answered it incorrectly. Chalmers threatened to get involved but never did and finished midfield. In fairness, the strong weekend winds made it a very difficult event to solve. In SA there is not much I want to talk about. The event threatened to be very poor from the outset, the weather made it a complete joke and I can’t believe they played instead of rescheduling. I am not sure anyone involved really benefitted from that decision. Even the winner Scott Jamieson will struggle to call it a win with a straight face. There’s a player we have backed a few times. Great player but I did not see that win coming. He shot 57 on day 2 to win, just 11 more than he did on the back 9 in Hong Kong when missing the cut! We lost the 7 points invested and slipped back to +151.86 points ahead for the season.

This week the events do not look a whole load better. The only interesting thing I read when researching was about a 26ft tall, roaring T-Rex that overlooks the 10th tee at the Palmer Coolum course. One of many strange reasons why the Australian PGA will be changing venue next year after 12 years here. They were looking for a new host up to last Sunday! Anyway, lets have a look at it.

Greg Chalmers, who blamed his short game for his mediocre performance last week, defends. Scoring normally goes pretty low here and past champions tend to be straight hitting players. The course is well established, not long but highly rated. The field is pretty weak. Senden is the worthy favourite at 9/1. He is the man to beat. Others who can realistic win are Ogilvy (2008 champ) 10/1, Chalmers (defending champ) 11/1, O’Hern (2006 Champ and 72 hole scoring record holder) 25/1 and dare I say it again? Peter Senior, who has won here a couple of times before (2003 & 2010 champ) 30/1. I say realistically as any other would be an over performance or a shock. Out of these Senden should be too good. 9/1 is tight but the field is very weak so does not represent bad value. Some may say he does not win enough to justify a win only price but he was going well last week before getting blown away on the final day, posting 82 to finish 18th. I would not back him in the wind. But he is good enough to win this. O’Hern would be my best of the rest but he boasts very little apart from course form right now.

The Johor Open is played at Horizon Hills GC in Malaysia. If
Garcia or Els play well they probably win but they are hard to back at 9/2 and 6/1 right now. Garcia is inconsistent and is playing some great golf but interrupted by some awful stuff. He is hard to trust. Ernie has not played for a while and has been suffering from injury. He could be anything this week and I would not be surprised if he ended up walking this, but who knows and at 6/1 can’t be worth the risk. Fraser and Wiratchant are fighting out the Asian Order of Merit and with only $25k between them will be feeling extra pressure and are probably best avoided. Jbe Kruger has to win to win the OOM. At 45/1 there is some value in the South African. He slipped down to finish 28th last week after a final round 75 but he played some good stuff the rest of the week. He has self belief, is confident and could have a big week here.

Jaidee has to be respected, he has a formidable record in Asia but 16/1 is a touch short. Ryan Yip has to be dismissed at 125/1 just because of his name! Simon Griffiths needs a big week to keep his card and found some form with his putting two weeks ago when finishing 11th in the Kings Cup. At 250/1 he may be worth a small interest. It will also be interesting to see how Kevin Na fares on his travels at 16/1. However, he drives it wild and you rarely get away with that on Asian courses.

The Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek is a great week. I played in it twice and it is an awesome course in a stunning location. The field is pretty good for this year’s event and the players coming from last week will face a very different challenge, one I am sure they will enjoy a lot more, and one that will not embarrass the tour so much.
Schwartzel, after his rampant victory in Thailand last week, is favourite at 4/1, just ahead of 6/1 Oosthuizen. Again, you would imagine, these two should battle this out. They are streaks ahead of the opposition. When you say they are the only Major winners in the field puts it into perspective. They are tough to split at the top. You could almost back them both with Sky Bet’s double chance at 15/8. Tempting.

However, I like the look of some at big prices. They may only be able to scrap it out for a place but if we can get one in the top 5 it will be far more rewarding than siding with the big two.
Tyrone Van Aswegan is a really classy player who basis himself in the States. He has had an up and down season but has posted four top 10’s on the Overall one has to feel he underachieved so far. His game sets up well for the course despite never finishing better than 30th. He did however finish 2nd in Cape Town in late November and kept his form ticking over with a 39th place finish in last week’s lottery. He is worth a pop at 175/1.

Matteo Delpodio will like Leopard Creek and for me he kind of matches the Quiros profile which does so well here. Being able to dominate the par 5’s is the key around here and he is long. Ben Coley beat me to tipping him this week so his price has contracted from 350/1 to 250/1 but there is still enough in that to make me a player. Anton Haig is also seriously long. His best finish is 23rd here but his game should suit and 250/1 is big enough to be involved. Chris Swanepoel’s best finish here was 18th in 2007. Again, he is long, has had a good season and is a huge price at 250/1. As tempting as it is to dive into the security of Louis and Charl, lets stick to the value and hope one of these four puts in a career changing week.

Alfred Dunhill Championship

0.5 points each way Matteo Delpodio @ 250/1
0.5 points each way Chris Swanpoel @ 250/1
0.5 points each way Tyrone Van Aswegan @ 175/1
0.5 points each way Anton Haig @ 250/1

Australian PGA Championship

2 points John Senden @ 9/1

Iskander Johor Open

1 pt each way Jbe Kruger @ 45/1
0.25 pts each way Simon Griffiths @ 250/1

2012 running total +158.86 points. This weeks investment 8.5 points. This weeks P&L = -8.5 pts

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.