UA-33754892-1 Archives for 09 August 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

USPGA Championship

Only a very brief preview this week as I am in the middle of a tournament in Oslo and have a 5am alarm set for an 8 am tee time tomorrow.

It is a shame as I have played Whistling Straits a number of times and adore the place, I could write about it all day long. It is the best course I have played by a long, long way. It has 18 holes which you can't wait to come back and play again. Most great courses may have 3 or 4 holes like that. It has the strategy of a Sawgrass with the beauty of a Pebble, the condition of a Leopard Creek with the feeling and traditions of a St. Andrews. It is a special place and one of the few venues where all the players are in agreement regarding the course. There's nothing not to love, it is close to perfection. Herb Kohler and Pete Dye should be very proud of what they have created.

It is a very fair test, and one that rewards players who hit greens in regulation and scramble well. If the wind gets up it helps to be long as the 2nd, 3rd and 4th, but more importantly the tough stretch of 14, 15, 16, 17 will play straight into the prevailing wind, which can be cool coming across Lake Michigan.

Anyway, here are the 9 players that I think I have the best chance. They are the 9 that rank high enough to be considered for a bet. Will Wilcox ranked number one but did not qualify for the event, the others in order are Spieth, Day, Matsuyama, Watson, Thomas, Kuchar, Stenson, Streb and Bohn.

Spieth obviously has a great chance and, with some huge question marks against McIlroy, is a worthy favourite. But for me he isn't a 7/1 chance. He could have been a bet at 14-16/1 but he ranks poorly in greens in regulation.

Jason Day has a golf course here that should suit him perfectly. He is number one in bogey avoidance which shows the quality he has. For a big hitter who is often wayward that ranking is testament to his ability to grind when things aren't going his way. Hence he hangs around in nearly every Major he plays. He ticks every box and is in strong form. 14/1 is fair but does't have enough value in it. It's the right price.

I have stuck with Matsuyama throughout the year, he has a lot of class. One week the putter is going to click and he could win going away. He is a long way clear of everyone else tee to green. I am going to stick with him at 45/1. His penetrating, low spin ball flight with the driver is ideal for this and even if he has an average week with the short stick it is hard to imagine him not being in the mix come Sunday. I said greens in regulation and scrambling would be key here and his ranks of 18th and 19th respectively make him way clear of all the others when combining the two. I would make him 25/1 so 45/1 makes him a nice bet.

Bubba lost in a playoff here to Kaymer. He leads the total strokes gained stat taking over from Spieth last week. Physically he is the best golfer on the planet, the most gifted, the most talented. His temperament is the only thing that holds him back. Imagine if he had Spieth's temperament? Nobody would get close. Shaping shots and taking on longer carries are big advantages to him and I think he will have a big week, but 14/1 is short.

Justin Thomas has some value. He feels like Matsuyama. A half decent putting week will see him right in the mix. He has the weapons and is a progressive player. The rank of 102 in putting hurts but 100/1 is too big.

Kuchar hasn't shown the very high level of consistency we have come to associate with him this season. He is not long so needs to be accurate. His accuracy, especially with his irons has been the issue. However, he is a smart player and will know how to use the contours, will know when and when not to be aggressive and scrambles as well as anyone. The extra roll on the fairways will suit him too. 66/1 is big enough for me to have him onside especially as he lead after 36 here in 2010 before finishing 10th.

Stenson shot 81 in the third round last week at Firestone. That is a little off putting but anyone who ranks 1st in greens and 13th in putting has to be considered, especially around here. I really fancy the Swede this week but 28/1 is just not enough for me to back him.

There's nothing much to Robert Streb apart from he doesn't do anything incredibly well but doesn't do anything badly. He is slight in stature but gets it done. He will almost definitely make the Presidents Cup team and sits quietly in 5th in the FedEx standings. He is under the radar and continues to offer excellent value. 80/1 is a bet.

Finally a huge price player to back this week. Jason Bohn is 300/1. He ranks 22nd in greens, 31st in scrambling, 38th in putting, 19th in scoring, 19th in the all round and 4th in bogey avoidance. Admittedly he has done this on a relatively easy schedule which does flatter the stats slightly, but they are not the stats of a 300/1 chance.

USPGA Championship

2 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 45/1

0.75 points each way Justin Thomas @ 100/1

1 point each way Matt Kuchar @ 66/1

0.75 points each way Robert Streb @ 80/1

0.5 points each way Jason Bohn @ 300/1

USPGA Championship Day 1 Three Balls

2 points Spieth 5/4 to beat McIlroy and Z Johnson (19.20) (+0.3 points)

2 points Day 7/4 to beat D Johnson and Fowler (14.05) (-2 points)

2 points Kuchar 11/8 to beat Schwartzel and Dubuisson (13.15) (+2.75 points)

2015 running total =  -140.36 points. This week’s investment 16 points. This weeks P&L so far = +1.05 points

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.