UA-33754892-1 Archives for 08 September 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Championship and KLM Open

Last Week:

Two weeks in a row we have been close to the jackpot and not quite got there, but rewarding weeks all the same, especially considering the frustration the rest of the year has been.

We had Lahiri as an each way pick, although I know many of you were on him in the first round leader market too. I was sent screenshots of Betfair bets where Lahiri was @ 180 to lead and other bets up to 250/1 each way with other bookmakers. I wasn’t on, so thanks for those! I would have been but it was a choice between Canizares and Lahiri for 1st round leader as he stakes were getting high, I chose the wrong one this time. Lahiri fizzled away as the week went on and our 300/1 chance finished down the board. Still, he provided some excitement for the 1/2 point he cost us.

Back to Canizares. He was up with the pace all week and started the final day eagle, birdie, birdie to lead by himself. Suddenly it was very much game on at 175/1. Hopefully some of you traded out at this point. He failed to birdie the easier holes coming in and had to finish with a 4th place finish. But that was good enough to win 32.81 points. A point was lost on the first round leader market.

The more likely bets of the week kind of disappointed. Rumford in fairness was always in touch but never quite clicked. He is a good, solid player these days but still cost us 3 points. Donaldson missed the cut and lost us 2.25 points, Wattel also failed to make the weekend after posting level par for his two rounds and a further 2 points disappeared. Jimenez made an unbelievable birdie up the last from the fairway bunker to clinch a place. That made us a further 4.25 points.

All in on the week we made 28.31 points (some of you a little more!), which isn’t bad considering we didn’t find the winner. That puts us back to -48.57 points for the year.

This Week:

KLM Open

The Dutch Open returns to Kennemer Golf and Country Club. The last few victors at Kennemer are ’06 Dyson, ’07 Fisher, ’08 Darren Clarke and ’09 Dyson again. One would therefore assume ball striking will be fairly high up on the agenda for a potential champion.

I like Dyson, Fleetwood, Anders Hansen, Joost Luiten and Marc Warren.

It is impossible to ignore Dyson. He has won this 3 times and twice on this course. He is also returning to form of late and was very nearly a pick last week, as he was the week before in Wales. He has played 6 events since the end of June and finished 5-12-9-28-18-22. Before this his form was shocking, but this was much to do with his clubs and he seems to be past this issue now. I think he should have a very big week but 18/1 second favourite appears to be an overreaction to his Dutch form. Too short for me.

Tommy Fleetwood had another very good week last week finishing 9th and he looks like he has found his comfort zone on Tour after winning two weeks ago in Scotland. I am surprised to see him as big as 50’s in this field. Brooks Koepka, who we have followed closely since his promotion from the Challenge Tour, is 25/1 for this. His form is solid and we know his potential but he is 25/1 and Fleetwood 50/1. Brooks’ last 3 results are 28-18-7, Fleetwood 1-106-9. So why is one double the price? They are both young, confident and hungry to win. Kennemer is only 6600 yards long so the American’s power advantage is negated to an extent. Fleetwood is value @ 50/1.

Anders Hansen is another who looks big at 40/1. He has 3 top 12’s in 5 starts in Holland and has bounced back from his wrist operation very well. His form retained, and if anything, slightly improved. He has had three weeks to settle back into the swing of things and placed 17-8-99. He loves a traditional style course so this should suit him and I like him to make a strong run at this.

Joost Luiten is more hit than miss in his home event. mc-2-mc-mc-57-6-mc. He has been in very good form this year and deserves his price tag of 20/1. You know there will be huge passion from him to perform on home soil and he’ll like nothing more than to be in contention come Sunday, wearing his orange national colours. 20/1 is fair, but there is not enough in it for me to be a player.

Marc Warren is a player I have never backed before. In fact he is a player I try to get against as often as I can. He struggles to win and he struggles to hole short putts under the gun. We know he is an underachiever, we know he swings it great and gets into contention with ease but can we really back a poor closer? His recent form doesn’t bode well either 85-95-85 and he only has Dutch form of wd-mc-4-mc-mc-68-12. Fortunately the 4th was at Kennemer which would give us hope. Warren plays well on short courses, he keeps it in play better hence his decent record at Castle Stewart etc. and I just fancy him this week. His poor recent run has made him a very fair price at 80/1 (90/1 with Sportingbet) and I am going to make a play on him.

One other guy to watch out for is Damien McGrane. He has some great course form and was 6th in Wales. 8/1 about him finishing in the top 10 certainly has some value in it considering he is as short as 66/1 with some in the outright. 33/2 a top 5 or 8/1 a top 10? No contest.

BMW Championship

The third of the four FEDEX Cup playoff events take place this week at Conway Farms Golf Club, Illinois. This is a new venue which makes things a little interesting.

What do we know about it? Well, it is a 7216 yard par 71, Tom Fazio designed course built on an old farm, which sat on Conway Road, hence the name Conway Farms and although it runs through forest and lakes it is designed with a strong ‘Scottish Links’ influence. Luke Donald is a member and was influential in bringing the event here. Woods, the 6/1 favourite, has a poor strike rate on courses he hasn’t played before.

So where does that leave us? Well, I like, in order, Woods (6/1), Stricker (22/1), Spieth (30/1), Bradley (35/1), Rose (20/1), Scott (14/1), Stenson (14/1), DeLaet (40/1), Snedeker (50/1) and Garcia (33/1).

I would have Woods at almost twice the price and, as I mentioned, his record on courses he hasn’t played before is not great and is therefore left out. Sticker is the one I really want to be with here. He was 25/1 with Ladbrokes this morning, which was an unreal price. He would be around 16/1-18/1 in my book. 22/1 is still widely available and I think that is a cracking bet. His last 4 starts show progressive form of 10-13-12-2 and his stats are unreal. 7th in driving accuracy, 2nd in greens in regulation, 8th in scrambling, 9th in putting and 2nd in scoring. There is not too much that can go wrong with a game like that. He is the one to be on this week.

Rose, Scott and Stenson all carry obvious chances but are too short. There is always going to be money for them and they are priced up accordingly. Graham DeLaet has been in very decent form and has the best long game on Tour, only Stenson comes close, but Delaet has been found out and the fancy prices have gone. 40/1 about him puts him alongside some very classy players and although he is a player I highly rate, I think he is overrated here. He will be going in with a lot of confidence now as he secured his Presidents Cup birth through some stunning recent play, but I still think 40/1 is short for someone who has never won and is in a very competitive heat.

Garcia played well at the Deutsche Bank but once again capitulated in the final round. He is 33/1 which seems fair but my concern is his ball striking stats are still pretty average and he is dropping through the putting rankings, which is what he has been relying on. He ranks 109 in scrambling. I think the average ball striking stats combined with lacklustre scrambling is the reason why, under the gun, he is failing to get it done. The putter can only save you so much.

Snedeker is the one I can’t figure out at the moment. His stats have slipped, his form has slipped but the prices about him have really slipped. Two months ago he would have been a 20-22/1 chance for this, maximum. Now you can back him at 50/1. If he can regain his early season form then 50/1 is very big, but in his current, error ridden form, then it seems 50/1 is about right. It’s his ball striking that has slipped the most and it looks as though this won’t be a particularly easy test, in that respect. It is the same reason why I am discounting the ‘home club’ boy, Luke Donald. 161st in driving distance, 54th in driving accuracy (big improvement this season in accuracy from the tee) and 167th in greens in regulation. 167th in greens in regulation and 42nd in scrambling means it’s not that surprising he has had a quiet year.

That leaves us with Bradley and Spieth. Keegan Bradley’s form has been steady but he hasn’t quite put 4 rounds together. Last time out at the Deutsche Bank it was his putter that held him back, his long game stats were strong enough. His last 5 starts have resulted in form figures of 15-2-19-33-16. All his stats are solid, but nothing is really stand out, which is the reason he is not winning. You have to be doing something really well that separates yourself from the rest. It is very rare for a winner not to lead at least one stat category for that week. I fancy Bradley will have put the working during the off week and he might find something here. Worth an interest at least.

Jordon Spieth is a contender again this week and it would be tough to leave him out after he fought through the field, finishing birdie, birdie, birdie, eagle for a closing 62 at the Deutsche Bank, making up an each way double with Bourdy for us. It is very reassuring to hear that Mickelson phoned Fred Couples after the first round at the Deutsche Bank to tell him Spieth has to be picked for the Presidents Cup, and he was. That is high praise indeed and shows the ability and potential of this guy. To think the 20 year old played in the Walker Cup last year and has now been picked ahead of Dustin Johnson (4.5 out of 5 points in the last Ryder Cup) and Jim Furyk (Best President’s Cup record of all time) for the Presidents Cup is quite incredible, especially for a rookie! The 30/1 on offer is not huge, but it is fair and and is big enough for me to be a backer.

KLM Open

0.5 pts each way Tommy Fleetwood @ 50/1 (-1pt)
1 pt each way Anders Hansen @ 40/1 (-2pts)
0.5 pts each way Marc Warren @ 80/1 (-1pt)

BMW Championship

2 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 22/1 (+2.5 points)
1 pt each way Jordan Spieth @ 30/1 (-2pts)
1 pt each way Keegan Bradley @ 35/1 (-2pts)

Special Bet

0.5 pt each way double Anders Hansen @ 40/1 and Steve Stricker @ 22/1 (-1pt)
0.5 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 50/1, First Round Leader BMW Championship. (+31.25 points)
1 pt Damien Mcgrane @ 8/1 to finish in the top 10, KLM Open. (+8 points)

2013 running total = -48.57 pts. This week’s investment 15 points. This weeks P&L = +32.75 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.