UA-33754892-1 Archives for 08 November 2020 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

08 November 2020

The Masters

The Masters Day 2

2nd Round 3 Balls

3.25 units Andrew Landry @ 6/5 to bt Mize and Michel. (-3.25)
0.75 units Kevin Na @ 5/2 to bt Westwood and Kuchar (+1.88)


Preview
Unfortunately things are very busy, but I will do a quick write up as it is The Masters. With the time constraint I will move quickly to the players I think will go well this week whilst also representing value. I will have to bypass the cliches like 'a tradition like no other' etc. Just the bare bones, no romance I am afraid.

I think the most likely winner is Jon Rahm. Two hole in ones already this week. The first a 5 iron on the 4th, the second a skim shot over the water on 16, if that counts. Don't worry, this isn't the only criteria I've based my view on. 4th here in 2018, 9th in 2019 and 6 wins, 5 seconds and 3 thirds worldwide since the 2019 Masters. There is little weakness in Rahm's game but, despite the huge success, his short game and putting is not quite where he would like it. He was working hard with Olazabal today on these things. One feels he will be in contention on Sunday and he isn't one to fear closing a win out. You can back him at 10/1, I would be 17/2. If I had to back one in the win market, I would be with Rahm.

Behind Rahm there is a bunch of guys who can win, there is little to separate Rahm from any of them. Having said that, Dustin Johnson at his best won't get touched. When he clicks he is the best player in the world currently. He beat the field average by 7.5 shots tee to green last week in Houston. Ball striking will be of a premium this week with wet conditions and less bermuda in the green surrounds, making chipping a little harder as the ball won't sit up as much. He is a very complete golfer, hits it as far as anyone and is on a run of four top 10s at the Masters including a 2nd here in 2019. He has a big chance this week and only 8 players have beaten him in his last 6 events combined. 15/2 offered, but I would be nearer 11/1.

Rory is 12/1, I would be 14/1. I don't think he is a million miles away from playing well but there's perhaps too many mistakes in there at the moment to be serious about backing him this week. If he isn't immaculate tee to green he struggles to keep rounds going. However, his Major record in foggy, wet conditions is notable. He may enjoy it more this time of year when the course is not as fast. It is hard to see where Rory separates himself from the players around him these days. On this basis I would rather be a layer than a backer. 176th in strokes gained (SG) approach and 167th in SG around the green is enough to put a line through his career grand slam chances this week.

Justin Thomas is number one in SG approach. This bodes well, I think accurate and controlled iron play is the number one analytic to focus on for success at Augusta. 12/1 is best price, I would be 14/1. But no top 10s in 4 starts is off-putting course form. Still, he is a very classy player.

Any of the guys in this sort of price range are hard to back with bookmakers offering stupid each way terms. I would like to see them being price competitive rather than just trying to open new accounts. Look for win only markets or use betfair.

I am excited to see what Bryson can do this week. He is an exciting player to watch no matter how much you may dislike him. His practice round numbers were ridiculous (see below) and if he takes Augusta on there is a chance he could blow away this field. But he could also blow himself away. He isn't just long, the rest of his game is in great shape too. Despite everyone saying Augusta is a long hitters course I am not sure that makes as much difference as it would at say a US Open. Out of the 35 or so guys who can win this (only 93 tee it up and at least half have very little chance) they all hit it long enough. Of course the length is an advantage but 21(am)-38-29 in his 3 Augusta starts doesn't build enough confidence to take 8/1, I would be 14/1-16/1. If nothing else, Bryson's performance this week could dictate how golf will respond to the 'technology and length' debate.

IMG_3449

We're on Xander Schauffele at 28/1 already so no need to place more at 14/1. He is playing well with two seconds in his last four starts and he loves a Major. Second here in 2019 with 6 other top 10s in the 13 Majors he has played, pretty impressive. His all around game is solid and he putts beautifully. I am happy we're on at 28/1, that's a cracking bet, I wouldn't put you off the 14/1 available, I would be 16/1.

I think the above are the main contenders. Hideki Matsuyama played well last week but can his putting hold up here? He looks priced about right at 25/1. Reed and Simpson don't have the fire power of the 'big 6' but at their best can win this. Reed at 30/1 and Simpson at 33/1 are correctly priced in my opinion.

Both Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau have played well at Augusta and could go well again. Cantlay hits it low and left to right which isn't ideal, Finau looks a weak under the gun with the putter and doesn't win golf tournaments, even though he seems to have a chance every week! Cantlay is 25/1 I would be 33/1 and Finau the same.

I like Tyrrell Hatton for this week despite his awful 3 Masters so far. But 28/1 is awful, I would be 40/1. Koepka at 16/1 is a really rough price. I know he showed glimpses last week and seems to step it up for Majors but 16/1? I'm 40/1 Brooks.

Scottie Scheffler we have backed at 66/1. He is now 50/1, I would be 50/1 too (33/1 at the time we backed him). He hasn't seemed to have clicked since having Covid. The first round last week gave us some hope but I won't be backing him again at 50/1.

Let's see if there's any value elsewhere, a bit further down. Byeong Hun An looks big at 200/1 (570 on Betfair). I would have him at 125/1. He needs to putt better than he has been but he has a win at Wentworth and a runner up at Memorial (lost in playoff to Bryson), both have form links to Augusta. Emirates in Dubai strangely does too. Both Garcia and Willet won in Dubai prior to their Masters wins, Lucas Herbert doesn't play this week. Time of year probably effects this a little, but worth noting I guess. Anyway, I think a top 20 bet on An at 6/1 is a good value proposition, I would be 7/2.

That's it, sorry I don't have more time. Enjoy the week and if you fancy a further interest check the Masters Sweepstake out at
http://jasonkellygolf.com/Major%20Sweeps/.


The Masters
Winner

No Bet

Top 5
No Bet

Top 10
No Bet

Top 20
0.75 units Byeong Hun An @ 6/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Erik Van Rooyen @ 4/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Sebastian Munoz @ 9/2 (+1.69)
0.75 units Si Woo Kim @ 9/2 (-0.75)

To Make Cut
1.25 units Nate Lashley @ 7/4 (-1.25)
2.5 units Nick Taylor @ 7/4 (+4.38)
2.25 units Max Homa @ 6/5 (-2.25)
1.5 units Jazz Janewattananond @ 7/4 (+2.63)
2 units John Augenstein @ 5/2 (+5)
1 units Andy Ogletree @ 11/4 (+2.75)

To Miss Cut
0.75 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 3/1 (-0.75)

72 Hole Matches
no bets

1st Round 3 Balls

0.75 units John Augenstein @ 5/1 to bt Willett and Fowler (+2.25)

The Masters
Winner

No Bet

Top 5
No Bet

Top 10
No Bet

Top 20
0.75 units Byeong Hun An @ 6/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Erik Van Rooyen @ 4/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Sebastian Munoz @ 9/2 (+1.69)
0.75 units Si Woo Kim @ 9/2 (-0.75)

To Make Cut
1.25 units Nate Lashley @ 7/4 (-1.25)
2.5 units Nick Taylor @ 7/4 (+4.38)
2.25 units Max Homa @ 6/5 (-2.25)
1.5 units Jazz Janewattananond @ 7/4 (+2.63)
2 units John Augenstein @ 5/2 (+5)
1 units Andy Ogletree @ 11/4 (+2.75)

To Miss Cut
0.75 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 3/1 (-0.75)

72 Hole Matches
no bets

1st Round 3 Balls

0.75 units John Augenstein @ 5/1 to bt Willett and Fowler (+2.25)



This week's P&L = +10.08 units
This week’s investment = 19 units
This week's Outright P&L = -0.56 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 3 units
This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +10.64 units
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 16 units


2020 Total P&L = +128.93 units

2020 Total Investment = 439.14 units
2020 Total ROI = 29.36%
2020 Outright Bets P&L = +49.66 units
2020 Outright Bets Investment = 259.64 units
2020 Outright ROI = 19.13%

2020 matches/specials/in running P&L = +70.27 units
2020 matches/specials/in running investment = 179.5 units
2020 matches/specials/in running ROI = 39.15%

2019 total +49.47 units
2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units
2010 total +189.33 units

9 Year Total +460.63 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit -1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.

Comments