UA-33754892-1 Archives for 08 November 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

OHL Classic and BMW Masters

We had a bit of a mixed bag last week. In the HSBC the big guns failed to fire. Bubba put in a disappointing defence, he looked a little rusty after a long break. Dustin put the performance in but didn't quite get the breaks he needed to win on Sunday. DJ finished in a tie for 5th so we got some place money back. Leishman put in a good run for a 150/1 chance. He finished in 11th after a slow start. If he keeps going off at prices like that on open courses he will be worth following.

In Mississippi we came very close. Both Toms and McGirt had huge chances on Monday after rain badly effected the event. They finished tied for second. Toms gave us a nice return, the 49 year old showing he has still got plenty of game on narrow courses. McGirt made up the each way double with Dustin Johnson so we snuck a bit of profit on that bet too. However, with no winners the returns were limited. We made 9.44 points on the week, but another step in the right direction.

This week we have a strong event in Europe, the BMW Masters from Lake Malaren, Shanghai. The PGA Tour are in Mexico for the OHL Classic at El Camaleon Golf Club.

OHL Classic

For a PGA Tour event this is a fairly weak field, but for this event it isn't bad. The course is under 7000 yards long but it suits ball strikers, especially those who can control their ball in the wind. There is a threat of rain all week so this could limit how much of a factor the wind will be. Experienced ball strikers tend to do well, there is not so much emphasis on length or milking the par 5s. Winners have separated themselves with accurate approaches into the par 4s. The approaches are where most the danger lurks around here.

Jason Bohn seems an obvious choice. He fell away a little last week but with all the rain delays and a busy, stressful run of events he can be excused some fatigue. This should suit perfectly. He has finished 19-3-7 here in his last 3 starts. 20/1 is very fair, he was 9/1 in a field not much weaker than this last week. The presence of Kuchar being the main difference. Bohn has to be considered and for me is perhaps the most likely.

Kuchar is the favourite and is coming off a win in Fiji a month ago. He has 6 top 10s in his last 10 starts and finished 3rd here on his last appearance in 2003. 14/1 is still a little short for my liking.

The only other player that interests me is Patton Kizzire. He debuts here but is in incredible form. He graduated from the last year and finished 5th at the Tour Champs, 2nd at the Shriners and 4th last week. The main concern with him here is he ranks 252nd in driving accuracy, he will need to tighten that up to contend. 25/1 is a fair price though.

From a value perspective nothing really leaps off the sheet. Alex Cjeka at 66/1 is about the only that looks like he has a chance at a price. It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Carlos Ortiz and Brice Garnett go well too at triple figure prices (110/1 and 125/1 respectively). Ortiz registered his only top 10 finish in 33 events on Tour here last year, the Mexican played the last 47 holes in 9 under with one bogey. Garnett finished 6th last year on his only start and finished 9th last week.

1.5 points each way Jason Bohn @ 20/1 (+6 points)

1 point each way Patton Kizzire @ 25/1 (-2 points)

0.5 points each way Brice Garnett @ 125/1 (-1 point)

0.5 points each way Carlos Ortiz @ 110/1 (-1 point)

BMW Masters

I can't get away from the favourite Justin Rose. 6/1 looks short at first glance but on closer inspection it looks quite fair. He is the most in form player with the second best course form. He is going to be tough to beat. He comes into this off the back of a win in Hong Kong on a course he shouldn't really win on, and comes into this fairly well rested and looks ready to peak again. This is a tougher field than Hong Kong but the course suits him better.

Outside of Rose I like Alexander Levy at 50/1. He has only played here once and finished 5th. He should have won but had a shocker in the last round shooting 78 after opening up with 65-66-63. He was in great form then having won in Portugal just before and was contending every week. He is not quite in that form now but this fairly lenient course with flatish greens sets up really well for him. He showed some form in Turkey two weeks ago, opening with 69-65 before fizzling out a little. Hopefully he will put it all together this week.

Peter Uihlein at 35/1, Emiliano Grillo 45/1, Paul Casey 22/1 and Thongchai Jaidee 50/1 all have some appeal but I make Rose and Levy a decent way clear of these.

2.5 points win Justin Rose @ 6/1 (-2.5 points)

0.75 points each way Alexander Levy @ 50/1 (-1.5 points)


0.5 point each way double Justin Rose @ 6/1 and Jason Bohn @ 20/1 (-1 point)

0.5 point each way double Justin Rose @ 6/1 and Patton Kizzire @ 25/1 (-1 point)

0.5 point each way double Alexander Levy @ 50/1 and Jason Bohn @ 20/1 (-1 point)

0.5 point each way double Alexander Levy @ 50/1 and Patton Kizzire @ 25/1 (-1 point)

2015 running total =  -149.65 points. This week’s investment 15 points. This weeks P&L = -6 points

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.