UA-33754892-1 Archives for 08 May 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Players Championship

Right, last week was another week of so close yet so far. Romain Wattell finished in a six way tie for 5th. A shot better and an outright place would have shown a 20pt profit but instead a rather disappointing 3.7pt profit. Everything else lost. David Toms played well but again disappointed on the weekend and Woodland played well in spurts. The treble had one loser, Martin Laird missed the cut. One record I achieved last week was tipping my first ever last place finisher, David Dixon!!

I have to be quick again this week as I still have to pack before catching my flight to Sawgrass which just so happens to be the venue for this weeks Players Championship. I am watching on Sunday and playing a pro am there the week after. So it would be great to celebrate a winner on site. However it does not look too easy.

The forecast is very hot and humid with a few thunderstorms. If there are suspensions in play it will suit more experienced players. Even more so than it already does. The average first time winner has played 7.5 Players Championships and having been there you can see why. The atmosphere is unbelievable, incredibly intense. It is a ball strikers course. A ball striker with a good shortgame.... hmm so just a good player than..... so lets look for a good player at the right price to become the Players Champion.

Ben Crane has awesome course form. He would be my number one pick but 33/1 is short. Lets see what I can find to oppose him with. Shortlist - Watney, Simpson, Toms, Kuchar, Mahan, Haas, Rose, Fowler, Holmes and Sabbatini. I have got to knock Rory Sabbatini out straight away, like half the players on the PGA Tour want to! He is in the middle of two ugly disciplinaries and staring at a possible suspension. Watney has the game and looks a good price at 40/1. The bookies went mad for him after he won at Doral and he started a run of events at ridiculous prices. However the last few weeks he seems to have lost his edge but I am willing to give him a chance again. His stats are awesome. He fits the bill.

I am going to put a line though Webb Simpson as well. He played well again last week for the third week in a row but this is a step up. He may well prove me wrong but I don’t like him at Sawgrass. Toms has been a regular pick for me. He is still a great player but seems to have no killer instinct anymore. He will be good for a top 20 again but I cannot back him to contend. Kuchar is awesome. Although he has finished outside the top 20 in his last two starts he has a good record here. Top 15’s in his last two starts. He is 15th in greens in regulation and 11th in scrambling. A cracking combination. Get on the 33/1.

I like Mahan, he is fantastic tee to green but I am going to leave him out because of his shortgame. You need an exceptional one to compete around this challenging Pete Dye course. Bill Haas went well last week, 66/1 is a fair price but I will pass as he is messing around with different putters every week. Rose has not shown enough the last few weeks. There is no doubt his game is good enough but I am not sure he has the confidence to win coming into this week.

JB Holmes has a good record at Sawgrass. He can go well but 66/1 is just too short. He should be at least 100/1 and would have been a bet at that price. Instead one guy who I have always put in the over-rated category, Rickie Fowler. He drives it wild and hits few greens but he makes a lot of birdies. He seems to be coming into form and I am going to give him a chance at 60/1. These three selections look better value than Ben Crane but lets keep him on side. He is our fourth selection at 33/1.

I am going to give Europe a swerve again this week.

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The Players Championship

2 pts each way Matt Kuchar @ 33/1
1 pt each way Rickie Fowler @ 60/1
1.5 pts each way Ben Crane @ 33/1
1 pt each way Nick Watney @ 40/1

2011 running total +166.67pts This weeks investment 11pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

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