UA-33754892-1 Archives for 08 March 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Valspar Championship and Tshwane Open

The laptop is replaced and the website is back up and running. In the two weeks that tips have not been published we have lost 10.5 points. Last week was close, we had two players at 66/1 and one at 100/1 inside the top 12 going into the final round. We frustratingly did not show a return, Simpson was the best finishing 7th.

This week looks like a good opportunity. Last year we backed the winner, John Senden, at 100/1 and the 4th, Will MacKenzie @ 66/1 in the Valspar Championship and the Tshwane Open is on a course I love, Pretoria CC, where I finished 7th in the Vodacom Championship a few years ago. I like the look of both events from betting perspective.

When the ball striking machine that is John Senden won at Copperhead last year it wasn’t his ball striking that won it for him. Yes, he finished 3rd in greens in regulation but he also putted great. When you look at players that have gone well here they are normally pretty experienced players with a reputation for being great putters. One that really stands out is former world number one, Luke Donald, who hasn’t finished worse than 6th in his last 4 starts here and won in 2012. He looks closer to the player he was 3 years ago but he isn’t quite there and 30/1 carries little appeal to me.

This is a long tough course that will suit ball strikers, but whenever the winning score doesn’t get into double figures it normally puts a bigger emphasis on short game. It was the case for Senden last year. He chipped in at a crucial time in the final round, scrambled well the whole week and ranked 3rd in length of putts made.

I really want to back Shawn Stefani this week. I think he is due a big week and finished 7th here in 2013. However, most of his form is on easier tracks and he ranks 108th in putting and 160th in scrambling. If the wind blows it is hard to give him a chance this week, even at 90/1.

Martin Laird is the first pick. He finished 5th here in 2011 and hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his last 3 starts. He ranks 2nd in scrambling, 16th in greens in regulation, 5th in birdies, 5th in bogey avoidance and 7th in scoring. The only stat he is weak in is driving accuracy but with 5 par 3s this week and the fact that Senden ranked 50th in fairways hit last year, this shouldn’t be too much of an issue here. I think 50/1 is very fair.

At the same price I like Daniel Berger. He lost in a playoff two weeks ago at the Honda, where he showed phenomenal ball striking skills. He lead the field in strokes gained tee to green there and the young Flordian will like it here too. Sometimes young players go a little quite after making their initial mark but that appears to be the main risk about the Florida State graduate. Statistically he has no weaknesses and is long, which although it doesn’t appear to be a huge advantage on previous results, it can’t hurt around a course that measures 7340 yards.

My final bet in Florida is Will MacKenzie at 80/1 (90/1 in places). He looks great value. He finished 4th for us here last year @ 66/1, as our main selection, and coming off a 6th last week (missed the 5 way playoff by one) in Puerto Rico he is a must bet here. There is no concern over his wrist injury now and there is no reason for him not to go well again. He ranks 3rd in greens and 11th in scoring on a tough schedule.

In South Africa they play a great little course, Pretoria Country Club. The course is just over 7000 yards and at 1400 meters above sea level the course won’t play long. But if you take me out of it, the cream rises at the venue. When I played I had Sterne, Oosthuizen, Otto, McGowan, Schwartzel and Kingston above me. At that time McGowan and Kingston were on fire. It was also a good week for ISM and Chubby Chandler, despite the smaller prize money on offer!

I really think Ross Fisher could defend at 16/1, but the course isn’t ideal for him as one will anticipate the scoring to go very low. After all, even I got to -11 thru 24 holes here. I also like the talented Byeong Hun An at 25/1, but again he appears to be more about power than finesse and with some deep fairway bunkers players will have to plot their way around. This is shown by the other past Vodacom winners like James Kingston and Anders Hansen.

The player I am backing is Gregory Bourdy at 40/1. Apart from the last two weeks he has a good record in South Africa and this course fits him perfectly. 33rd in driving accuracy, 20th in greens, 26th in putting and 9th in scoring shows his game is a great fit. His last two weeks in SA have been horrible, 75th and 129th. Before that he had a strong spell in Asia and the Middle East finishing 5-13-5. He will be keen to put the last two weeks behind him.

Valspar Championship

0.75 points each way Martin Laird @ 50/1
0.5 points each way Daniel Berger @ 50/1
1 point each way Will MacKenzie @ 80/1

Tshwane Open

1 point each way Gregory Bourdy @ 40/1


2015 running total =  -37.99 points. This week’s investment 6.5 points. This weeks P&L =

(Already advised) US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments