UA-33754892-1 Archives for 08 July 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Scottish Open and John Deere Classic

Scottish Open - In Running (After rd 3)

Today in the Scottish Open we had one of those frustrating, tough, coastal days. The scoring was very good in the morning and then the wind picked up and the afternoon scoring was poor. This has bought a lot of players back into it. We are still looking good with Fowler but Dantrop could be worth backing again. I also think Hend is good value.

To Win

0.5 points Rickie Fowler @ 5 (-0.5)
0.4 points Jens Dantrop @ 10 (-0.4)
0.25 points Scott Hend @ 25 (-0.25)

John Deere Classic - In Running (After rd 3)

No Bet

I think we may have to write off the John Deere. A player, Michael Kim, who has offered very little all season caught fire. He is too short to back but hard to oppose.


Scottish Open - In Running (After rd 2)

Fowler is still the most likely and still fairly priced. As is Hatton. I took a little of the 50/1 Hatton for The Open next week. I played with him last Friday and he was in rude form. His last two rounds at Carnoustie, next week’s venue, are 5 under and 7 under. He is a great links player and 50/1 is too big.

Jens Dantrop is one behind and 33/1, 36 on Betfair. Worth some pocket change at the price.


To Win

0.4 points Rickie Fowler @ 4.6 (-0.4)
0.4 points Tyrrell Hatton @ 5.5 (-0.4)
0.25 points Jens Dantrop @ 34 (-0.25)

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Fowler
22%
4.60

3.67
27.2%
5.5%
25.26
Hatton
18%
5.50

4.26
23.5%
5.3%
29.23
Rock
14%
7.00

7.72
13.0%
-1.3%
-9.34
Rose
6%
17.00

19.14
5.2%
-0.7%
-11.20
Pepperell
5%
19.00

43.30
2.3%
-3.0%
-56.12
Westwood
4%
23.00

19.11
5.2%
0.9%
20.35
Li
4%
23.00

27.19
3.7%
-0.7%
-15.39
Bjork
4%
23.00

41.24
2.4%
-1.9%
-44.23
Frittelli
3%
31.00

40.49
2.5%
-0.8%
-23.44
Knox
3%
34.00

64.24
1.6%
-1.4%
-47.07
Dantorp
3%
34.00

19.23
5.2%
2.3%
76.82
Poulter
3%
36.00

38.12
2.6%
-0.2%
-5.57
Reed
2%
41.00

37.20
2.7%
0.2%
10.21
List
2%
51.00

27.67
3.6%
1.7%
84.33
Hoffman
1%
67.00

40.92
2.4%
1.0%
63.72
Horsfield
1%
71.00

426.78
0.2%
-1.2%
-83.36
Kjeldsen
1%
101.00

198.40
0.5%
-0.5%
-49.09



John Deere Classic - In Running (After Round 1)

The price about Molinari is still generous. I have topped up a little. He opened up with a 6 under 65 to be 7th, 3 behind. But with other market principles coming up short on day 1 his price is still attractive.

To Win

0.5 points Francesco Molinari @ 5 (-0.5)

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Molinari
20%
5.00

3.41
29.3%
9%
46.63
Kirk
6%
17.00

22.55
4.4%
-1%
-24.60
Wagner
4%
26.00

31.65
3.2%
-1%
-17.86
Dahmen
4%
26.00

29.42
3.4%
0%
-11.63
Streelman
3%
29.00

25.78
3.9%
0%
12.49
Johnson
3%
34.00

22.90
4.4%
1%
48.47
Rodgers
3%
34.00

47.30
2.1%
-1%
-28.12
m Kim
3%
34.00

32.60
3.1%
0%
4.28
Wheatcroft
3%
34.00

22.69
4.4%
1%
49.84
Kraft
2%
41.00

50.35
2.0%
0%
-18.57
w Kim
2%
41.00

53.53
1.9%
-1%
-23.40
Moore
2%
51.00

92.67
1.1%
-1%
-44.96
Niemann
2%
51.00

84.07
1.2%
-1%
-39.33
Brown
2%
51.00

28.26
3.5%
2%
80.47
Taylor
2%
51.00

62.11
1.6%
0%
-17.89
Taylor
2%
51.00

62.11
1.6%
0%
-17.89
Ryder
2%
56.00

69.03
1.4%
0%
-18.87
Romero
2%
61.00

53.43
1.9%
0%
14.18
Cook
1%
67.00

153.48
0.7%
-1%
-56.35
Mitchell
1%
67.00

42.33
2.4%
1%
58.26
Conners
1%
67.00

54.21
1.8%
0%
23.59
Duncan
1%
71.00

45.01
2.2%
1%
57.75
McCarthy
1%
71.00

45.58
2.2%
1%
55.77
Stricker
1%
81.00

50.94
2.0%
1%
59.02
Hadley
1%
81.00

70.64
1.4%
0%
14.66
Blaum
1%
81.00

123.93
0.8%
0%
-34.64
Palmer
1%
81.00

92.04
1.1%
0%
-11.99
Varner III
1%
81.00

62.17
1.6%
0%
30.30
Hearn
1%
81.00

117.27
0.9%
0%
-30.93
Griffin
1%
81.00

47.53
2.1%
1%
70.42
Pan
1%
101.00

103.47
1.0%
0%
-2.39
Gomez
1%
101.00

152.40
0.7%
0%
-33.73
Campbell
1%
101.00

167.26
0.6%
0%
-39.61
Stallings
1%
126.00

123.70
0.8%
0%
1.86




Scottish Open - In Running (After rd 1)


Fowler looks cracking value after day 1 of the Scottish Open. However, one must proceed with caution with the fact the entire field is covered by just 12 shots. This is amazing, normally you would see a much larger deviation. Fowler is one behind, is fantastic on links and won on this course in 2015, the only other time this course was used.

To Win


1 point Rickie Fowler @ 5.5 (-1)
0.25 points Luke List @ 13 (-0.25)
0.25 points Hideki Matsuyama @ 41 (-0.25)

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Fowler
18%
5.50

3.51
28.5%
10.3%
56.85
Reed
11%
9.50

8.98
11.1%
0.6%
5.83
List
8%
13.00

9.75
10.3%
2.6%
33.30
Hatton
8%
13.00

10.89
9.2%
1.5%
19.37
Rose
7%
15.00

12.92
7.7%
1.1%
16.11
Westwood
5%
21.00

16.42
6.1%
1.3%
27.88
Knox
5%
21.00

43.99
2.3%
-2.5%
-52.26
Poulter
3%
29.00

24.97
4.0%
0.6%
16.15
Frittelli
3%
31.00

29.91
3.3%
0.1%
3.64
Matsuyama
2%
41.00

19.88
5.0%
2.6%
106.24
Li
2%
41.00

59.91
1.7%
-0.8%
-31.56
Southgate
2%
41.00

74.24
1.3%
-1.1%
-44.78
Fox
2%
51.00

72.85
1.4%
-0.6%
-30.00
Rock
2%
51.00

90.57
1.1%
-0.9%
-43.69
Kuchar
2%
51.00

74.62
1.3%
-0.6%
-31.65
Willett
2%
51.00

386.68
0.3%
-1.7%
-86.81
Dunne
2%
61.00

135.10
0.7%
-0.9%
-54.85
Hoffman
1%
81.00

40.09
2.5%
1.3%
102.05
Sterne
1%
81.00

40.69
2.5%
1.2%
99.06
Kjeldsen
1%
91.00

154.74
0.6%
-0.5%
-41.19
Dantorp
1%
101.00

70.88
1.4%
0.4%
42.49




We are due a bit of luck. In the Irish Open last week Russell Knox holed a 50 foot putt to tie with our man Ryan Fox, then holed another to beat him on the first playoff hole. You could not even start pricing that double up. Very hard to watch. Add to that the normally solid Xander Schauffele shooting a shaky Sunday 75 (+5) and Niemann a Sunday 64 (-6) at the Greenbrier to beat our 72 hole match bet by a couple of shots. And don't forget Casey blowing a 4 shot lead when we had lumped on at nice prices a few weeks ago. These are all tough breaks. We could have won a lot, fortunately we have not lost a great deal. We live to see another week.

And this week looks to be a good one. Two decent fields either side of the Atlantic, which comes as a little bit of a surprise the week before a Major. Both events offer a fair bit of value.

Let's take a look at the Scottish Open first.

Scottish Open

Gullane hosts and from what I understand it is a composite of all three courses, but holes from course 1 appear the most. It offers a proper, old, traditional links test with wind and bunkers offering the primary defence. 7133 yards and a par of 70 looks a test on paper but one would imagine it to be bone dry and running out to play much, much shorter than those numbers suggest. One thing I hear, unlike most links, there are large changes in elevation making club selection difficult especially when windy. The forecast looks good for golf, perhaps a few occasional, short showers but the recent weather shouldn't allow the rough to be grown too penal and I expect the scoring to be rather low.

I think the best plan is to go with proven links players. The course appears to lend itself to accurate players who can really control their irons, especially their ball flight and distance control. Sharpe short games and solid holing out always helps, but creativity and imagination is certainly an extra string to ones bow when playing links.

My picks are far from original but appear to offer strong value all the same. Especially Matsuyama, who I think should be priced the same as the favourites. He appears the best bet in my view. One at bigger prices to perhaps be with is Charley Hoffman at 66/1. That price is too big in this line up.

It is hard to look too far past the favourites though. They should all be tuned up with The Open next week and will be looking for big performances to build momentum and confidence for next week.



Scottish Open


To Win


0.5 points Hideki Matsuyama @ 23 (-0.5)
0.4 points Rickie Fowler @ 12 (-0.4)
0.25 points Justin Rose @ 11 (-0.25)
0.25 points Louis Oosthuizen @ 26 (Non Runner)

Top 5


1.5 points Hideki Matsuyama @ 6.5 (-1.5)
0.4 points Charley Hoffman @ 15 (-0.4)

Top 10


2 points Hideki Matsuyama @ 4 (-2)
0.5 points Phil Mickelson @ 4.5 (-0.5)
0.4 points Hideto Tanihara @ 21 (-0.4)
0.4 points Tyrrell Hatton @ 4 (+0.24)


Top 20


1.5 points Hideki Matsuyama @ 2.5 (-1.5)
1.5 points Charlie Hoffman @ 4 (+1.5)
1 point Hideto Tanihara @ 9 (-1)
0.5 points Chappell @ 5 (-0.5)


First Round Leader

No Bet


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

0.44 points Ross Fisher to beat Dunne @ 1.91 (-0.44)
0.6 points Fitzpatrick to beat Wood @ 1.83 (+0.5)
0.6 points Matsuyama to beat Reed @ 1.83 (-0.6)
1.8 points Hatton to beat Sullivan @ 1.83 (+1.5)

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Fowler
9%
11.00

7.43
13.5%
4.4%
48.08
Rose
9%
11.00

7.29
13.7%
4.6%
50.82
Reed
5%
21.00

15.87
6.3%
1.5%
32.33
Hatton
5%
21.00

20.17
5.0%
0.2%
4.11
Knox
4%
23.00

61.98
1.6%
-2.7%
-62.89
Matsuyama
4%
23.00

7.49
13.4%
9.0%
207.08
Kuchar
4%
26.00

28.68
3.5%
-0.4%
-9.35
Poulter
3%
29.00

30.67
3.3%
-0.2%
-5.45
Sullivan
3%
29.00

50.19
2.0%
-1.5%
-42.22
Mickelson
3%
29.00

20.45
4.9%
1.4%
41.84
Oosthuizen
3%
29.00

15.78
6.3%
2.9%
83.83
Cabrera Bello
3%
34.00

40.16
2.5%
-0.5%
-15.34
Wood
2%
46.00

105.80
0.9%
-1.2%
-56.52
Fitzpatrick
2%
51.00

58.73
1.7%
-0.3%
-13.17
Fox
2%
51.00

58.00
1.7%
-0.2%
-12.07
Campillo
2%
56.00

93.77
1.1%
-0.7%
-40.28
Dunne
2%
56.00

113.28
0.9%
-0.9%
-50.57
Uihlein
2%
57.00

43.00
2.3%
0.6%
32.56
Hoffman
2%
61.00

26.06
3.8%
2.2%
134.04
Fisher
1%
67.00

40.79
2.5%
1.0%
64.24
Bjork
1%
67.00

151.56
0.7%
-0.8%
-55.79
Suri
1%
67.00

66.87
1.5%
0.0%
0.20
Kaymer
1%
67.00

121.42
0.8%
-0.7%
-44.82
Pieters
1%
67.00

59.65
1.7%
0.2%
12.32
Frittelli
1%
67.00

95.03
1.1%
-0.4%
-29.49
Li
1%
67.00

85.88
1.2%
-0.3%
-21.98
Aphibarnrat
1%
71.00

81.84
1.2%
-0.2%
-13.24
Westwood
1%
81.00

78.12
1.3%
0.0%
3.69
McDowell
1%
91.00

155.01
0.6%
-0.5%
-41.29
Wallace
1%
101.00

144.36
0.7%
-0.3%
-30.04


John Deere Classic

The John Deere feels like a strange, quirky event but always seems to provide a lot of entertainment, stories and drama. From the low scoring (Paul Goydos' 59) and the horses for courses aspect to the emergence of new talent it throws out in each edition.

I'll explain further. The TPC at Deere Run is the only course on the PGA Tour where a 59 (above) and 60 (Stricker) have been recorded in the same week. 16 to 26 under are the range of winning scores. That's the low scorning bit. Horses for courses, well Zach Johnson's form here reads (most recent first) 5,34,3,2,2,1,3,21,3,21,2. Steve Stricker 5,52,35,11,10,5,1,1,1. Emergence of new talent, well it is a timing thing. The event is played the week before The Open so there is less demand to play from established players, the college season finished a couple of weeks ago in the US so they are available to play and the web.com Q School is only a few weeks away so they want to take their chance to play.

Anyway, down to business. The above form is a key here. Stricker and Zach are very similar players. They both hit it right to left, they both are more accurate than long, they are very tidy iron players but the main link is they are perhaps the best wedge players and putters in the game. It also helps for Zach that this is a home fixture.

I think they are both worth keeping on side. This strategy appears overly obvious but I see them both as good value. It is strange as you would expect them to be priced artificially short. Zach has won here, had three second place finishes and two thirds. A scoring average of 66.89. It is impossible to ignore. Stricker has three wins, 8 top 10s in 16 appearances and is the tournament all time earnings leader. With two wins on the Champions Tour to boot, you can't not take the 25/1 on offer. He may be old, but one must not discriminate!

We should back Francesco Molinari too. He also fits the profile of neat and tidy. For years he has been perhaps the most consistent player around. He makes few mistakes tee to green so when he adds number one in putting to that, like he did at the Quicken Loans two weeks ago, where he won for us, he becomes almost unbeatable. He has won two of his last four starts. The other being the BMW PGA. 11/1 seems fair, even on debut.

One to throw in at a bigger price is Chez Reavie. He doesn't boast a great record here nor does he boast a good win rate but he does fit the profile. He is 6th in driving accuracy and 15th in approaches from 150-175 yards and 8th 175-200. He is a neat and tidy player who will need an improved week with his wedges. He has a strong start to the season but has fizzled a little of late. He finished 6th five weeks ago and was 5th here in 2011, which gives us hope, but he is a sneaky good players and the price is more than fair.


John Deere Classic


To Win


0.5 points Francesco Molinari @ 12 (-0.5)
0.25 points Zach Johnson @ 15 (-0.25)
0.25 points Steve Stricker @ 26 (-0.25)
0.25 points Chez Reavie @ 67 (-0.25)

Top 5


0.4 points Francesco Molinari @ 3.5 (+1)
0.4 points Steve Stricker @ 6 (-0.4)
1 point Chez Reavie @ 13 (-1)


Top 10


1 point Steve Stricker @ 3.5 (-1)
1.5 points Chez Reavie @ 6 (-1.5)
0.4 points Bill Haas @ 9 (-0.4)
0.4 points Hudson Swafford @ 23 (-0.4)


Top 20


1.5 points Chez Reavie @ 3.2 (-1.5)
0.5 points Mackenzie Hughes @ 7.5 (+2.18)
0.5 points Bill Haas @ 4.5 (-0.5)
0.4 points William McGirt @ 6.5 (-0.4)


First Round Leader

No Bet


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

0.44 points Ryan Moore to beat Bryson Dechambeau @ 1.91 (+0.4)
0.63 points Francesco Molinari to beat Zach Johnson @ 1.8 (+0.5)
1.88 points Steve Stricker to beat Kyle Stanley @ 1.8 (+1.5)

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Molinari
9%
11.00

6.01
16.6%
8%
83.04
Johnson
8%
13.00

9.51
10.5%
3%
36.75
Dechambeau
8%
13.00

18.48
5.4%
-2%
-29.67
Moore
5%
19.00

19.67
5.1%
0%
-3.40
Niemann
5%
21.00

51.17
2.0%
-3%
-58.96
Stricker
4%
26.00

12.73
7.9%
4%
104.25
Stanley
3%
29.00

25.40
3.9%
0%
14.18
Hadley
3%
34.00

33.39
3.0%
0%
1.84
Cook
2%
41.00

64.93
1.5%
-1%
-36.86
Bryan
2%
46.00

60.80
1.6%
-1%
-24.34
Landry
2%
51.00

64.80
1.5%
0%
-21.29
Lingmerth
2%
51.00

65.88
1.5%
0%
-22.58
Kirk
2%
56.00

43.14
2.3%
1%
29.81
Gay
2%
61.00

52.98
1.9%
0%
15.13
Wise
1%
67.00

42.77
2.3%
1%
56.64
Streelman
1%
67.00

49.84
2.0%
1%
34.42
Piercy
1%
67.00

58.03
1.7%
0%
15.46
Kraft
1%
67.00

128.85
0.8%
-1%
-48.00
Pan
1%
67.00

81.56
1.2%
0%
-17.85
Rodgers
1%
67.00

104.36
1.0%
-1%
-35.80
Tway
1%
71.00

77.80
1.3%
0%
-8.74
Mitchell
1%
81.00

51.54
1.9%
1%
57.15
Reavie
1%
81.00

17.31
5.8%
5%
367.82
Stallings
1%
81.00

72.02
1.4%
0%
12.47
Kang
1%
81.00

97.79
1.0%
0%
-17.17
Ancer
1%
81.00

82.10
1.2%
0%
-1.34
s Kim
1%
81.00

52.36
1.9%
1%
54.69
Putnam
1%
81.00

82.77
1.2%
0%
-2.14
Lee
1%
81.00

150.42
0.7%
-1%
-46.15
Blaum
1%
81.00

233.80
0.4%
-1%
-65.35
Wagner
1%
81.00

229.14
0.4%
-1%
-64.65
Dahmen
1%
81.00

304.46
0.3%
-1%
-73.40
Watney
1%
101.00

53.07
1.9%
1%
90.30
Haas
1%
101.00

60.30
1.7%
1%
67.48
Poston
1%
101.00

174.37
0.6%
0%
-42.08




This week's P&L = -9.52 points
This week’s investment = 26.74 points


This week's Outright P&L = -9.88 points
This weeks's Outright Investment = 20.35 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +0.36 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 10.59 points



2018 Total P&L = -68.71 points

2018 Total Investment = 1629.35 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = -14.12 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 750.94 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -54.69 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 880.37 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan. Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.


It is important to focus on bet size. It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide. So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection. Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year. The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account. This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more. Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones. It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated. The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested. The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.


2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

Comments