UA-33754892-1 Archives for 08 January 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Jo'burg Open and Sony Open

Disappointing start to the year. None of the picks even got close. Fleetwood maybe gave us the best run but came up with little on the weekend. We lost the 9 points invested.

A chance to get it back this week. Lets have a look at the Jo'burg Open first and see if we can oppose the favourite Charl Schwartzel. He has won this the last two years and looks very hard to beat. If he is at his best he is in a different class to most in this field but is now best price of just 7/2. There was some 4/1 around at the start of the week but it did not last long and 7/2 is short in the biggest field of the year. Favourites have had an incredible strike rate recently and Charl certainly seems capable of keeping that up but in a tournament where you have to go low you still have to putt good. It is hard to take a runner against 180+ other runners and only get three and a half times your money. He would need to be bullet proof to be value and he is not quiet that.

I think Danny Willett looks decent at 25/1. This event is played over two different courses at Royal Johannesburg, the East and the West. The West is short and scoreable. The East is long and a good test but not really too penal. You can get away with some wide drives and after a strong showing last week Willett looks to have a decent chance here. He has the third lowest scoring average at the venue and finished 4th here in 2009 and 2010. 7th last week shows he is good nick and looks a pick.

I was interested in Havret at 40/1. He does well in South Africa and his game is in good shape. My only worry with the Frenchman is he does not often contend in low scoring events, he is more of a grinder on tougher courses. Instead I am going to go with another Frenchman, the same one as last week, Guillaume Cambis. 500/1 is too big about this guy. He can play and this will suit him. Last week will have settled him in and he can have a big week here.

In the States this week it is the first full field event of the year, the Sony Open in Hawaii. I like this event, it is all about hitting fairways and is a real horses for courses type course. It is also a chance to look at some of the rookies for the first time. However, the rookies do not have a great record in this event. Top rookie last year was placed a lowly 37th. The last top 10 by a rookie was in 2009. I am keen to be with Seung-Yul Noh this season and he will be a tipped as many times as his price represents value. However, this does not look the best place to start. He is not known for accurate driving and this will not be his best chance, but he is awesome. He is 80/1 generally but Stan James go a stand out 125/1, if you can nick a bit of this price he is worth a go, actually he is probably worth a go anyway!

I really like two players here. Zach Johnson and David Toms. They both have great records and the course is just perfect for them. Johnson won here in 2009, was in the top 10 of fairways hit last year and finished 2nd to Tiger Woods last time out. He must have a decent chance here and 18/1 is decent. David Toms is a great price at 40/1. I was expecting to see something around 20/1 despite a poorish week last week. He finished with a decent round on the Monday on a course that was far from ideal and he will be happier back at Waialae Country Club. He finished 2011 ranked 6th in both fairways hit and greens in regulation and 18th in putting. Its that lethal combination of accuracy and clinical finishing that saw him win here in 2006 and finish in a tie for 2nd in 2009. At 40/1 he is a good bet, certainly the best value of the week.

Obviously you have to be brave to oppose Striker and Simpson in any event at the moment but they both lack accuracy from the tee and these greens are tricky and saving yourself with the putter will not be easy. I don't doubt they will be in the mix so that's why I am taking the each way on Johnson even at a shortish price. Choi is another with a great record at Waialae and played well last week but 14/1 is tight about a player who is not that consistent from the tee.

Jo'burg Open

1 pt each way Danny Willett @ 25/1 (General)
0.5 pts each way Guillaume Cambis @ 500/1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes, Stan James)

Sony Open

1.5 pts each way Zach Johnson @ 18/1 (Sportingbet and Stan James)
2.5 pts each way David Toms @ 40/1 (General)
0.5 pts each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 125/1 (Stan James) 80/1 general

2012 running total -9 pts This weeks investment 12 pts

2011 total +370.78 pts
2010 total +189.33 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.