UA-33754892-1 Archives for 08 April 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

RBC Heritage and Maybank Malaysian Open

The Masters was great viewing, always is, but this one was a little bit special. There were some hugely impressive performances. Bubba was class and showed unbelievable powers of recovery. He was in the perfect position going into the final day. I do not think he is a great front runner but a brilliant hold up horse. He needs to be produced late to stumble across the line before he realises what is happening. Louis, for a player who had never made a cut at Augusta, showed tremendous control over every part of his game. Whenever he putts good he is a contender and he looked very decent putting left below right. Peter Hanson put in a big performance. For a player with only one Major top ten and again no real Masters form he looked good enough to win. He putted great, especially on day 3. 23 putts for 65. He is definitely one to watch for a US Open or USPGA. They should suit him better but he is a complete golfer. Mickelson contended despite not being at his best. Augusta is his playground. I thought the player of the week though was Matt Kuchar. He played so solid. Tee to green he was faultless and pulled off some big plays under the gun. He looked comfortable throughout and he is definitely a Major contender this year. Elsewhere, Westwood was predictable. When in his comfort zone he looks like the best player in the world but then he gets in a position where he feels the heat a bit he starts lagging putts and yipping chips. His short game is not good enough to win at Augusta and whenever he gets a sniff in a big event he becomes ultra defensive. That is not hindsight, I said it in the preview too. When we backed him Dubai he did the same thing. Turned on Sunday with the lead and did not get a putt to the hole on the back 9. He is hard to win with unless it is a nothing event. e.g. Indonesian Masters or Nedbank Challenge where he does not care so much.

The three who disappointed were Rory, Tiger and Luke. Rory looked the most likely after round two but was not at his best at any point and lost serious momentum with a disastrous start to round 3. Luke was always up against it as his long game is not as good as others and he especially struggled at Augusta hitting fewer greens than any other player completing four rounds. Woods however was the most worrying. He looked lost on the course for the most part. He looked like a player whose mind is absorbed by technique and has lost his instinct to play good golf. He could not find it and lost it mentally. Often when you hit a lot of bad shots or are struggling with your swing you lose focus on your putting. Your mind gets rushed with thoughts. He looked very, very poor and the anger he showed was that of a frustrated player who wanted it too much but was completely lost.

Anyway, the result for us was decent. We lost 10 points on Woods but that was built into the running total as it was all ante post. As was the 3 points on the fast finishing Bo Van Pelt. The only outright pick for the week was Matt Kuchar at 66/1. He placed and won us 15.5 points. Phil Mickelson we backed each way without the big 2, he won us 6 points. Bubba Watson we backed without the big two at 35/1. That won us 43.75 points. Ben Crane cost us a point, he put in a decent run at a big price. I fancy him now for the Players Championship. John Sendon had a shocking front 9 on day 2 and therefore did not finish top Aussie, another point gone. Our 72 hole match bet treble had no return -1 point and our round 2 matches lost 4 points. Our Masters week total was +58.25 points. Decent.

So on to this week. The RBC Heritage played at Harbour Town, Hilton Head. I have won a pro am at this course. In the final round I had 6 birdies and 3 bogies on the front 9 and then hung on. This course suits a straight hitter. There is an advantage in being able to shape it both ways and a sharp short game is vital. The greens are so small that everyone is going to miss a few but getting up and down is not too demanding, it is very fair.

I like Bo Van Pelt. Matt Kuchar and Jason Dufner.

Bo Van Pelt posted a 64 to close at Augusta, good enough for a share of 17th. I have to say I really fancied him but he got going a little too late. He is a great player. He swings it great, hits it great and putts great. He has four top tens this year and is 1st in total driving, 4th in birdies and 2nd in putting All his stats are very solid and he has three top 15’s in six starts at Harbour Town. He is a must bet at 25/1.

The flat stick was the only reason Matt Kuchar did not win the Masters. He three putted the 9th from short range and missed a few others too. His long game was bang on. This is reflected in his stats too. He is 110th in putting and 9th in greens in regulation. His ball striking, shot making and tidy short game should put him pretty close here. He has had four straight top tens coming into this and has a decent record at Harbour Town. It is a worry how much last week took out of him but he is worth an interest at 16/1.

Jason Dufner has a similar profile to Matt Kuchar. He is 7th in total driving but 105th in putting. He finished 14th last year and has had a solid season. He lead after 36 holes at the Masters before shooting a pair of 75’s over the weekend. This course should suit him a little better, especially with his calm temperament. 40/1 is a fair price.

Others considered were Brian Davis who has cracking course form and has been in good form recently but looks short at 50/1. The favourite Luke Donald has impressive course form with two 2nds and a 3rd in his last 3 starts. But he is 143rd in greens in regulation and 110th in total driving (175th in driving distance). The course does suit and he has an awesome short game but at with his recent ball striking 7/1 seems short. I also looked at John Huh at 100/1. His accurate driving all suit this course but the rest of his stats have become a little average the last few weeks.

The Maybank Malaysian Open boasts a strong lineup this week and it is very difficult to look past the first four in the betting. The hardest thing is separating them and finding the most likely winner. I can’t. However Kiradech Aphribarnrat seems worth a pop at 100/1. In his last two European Tour starts he has posted top 10’s. He finished 3rd here two years ago and has a good record in Malaysia. Danny Willett got a second look at 66/1. He does well in Asia but with the top four looking so strong it is hard to be with him here.

RBC Heritage

2 pts Matt Kuchar @ 16/1 (General)
2.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 25/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred, Geoff Banks)
1 pt each way Jason Dufner @ 40/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power)

Maybank Malaysian Open

1 pt each way Kiradech Aphribarnrat @ 100/1 (Bet 365, Bwin, Geoff Banks)

2012 running total +53.13 points. This weeks investment 11 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf