UA-33754892-1 Archives for 07 October 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Frys.com Round 1 18 hole match

Ben Crane is normally a fast starter. Remember at The Players Championship this year when we backed him to be the first round leader? He rewarded us with a nice each way return. In round 1 at the frys.com he is paired up against Jhonattan Vegas and Robert Allenby. Allenby’s form has been drastic. He is 106th in the Money List thanks to a 2nd place finish in the Mayakoba Classic. He has missed 8 of his last 8 cuts (he played 4 rounds at Firestone where there is no cut) and 13 out of 24 this year. He ranks 172nd in pre-cut scoring average. Vegas has missed 5 of his last 8 cuts, 11 of 23 for the season. He is a hot and cold, generally erratic player. He is 112th on the Money List and his pre-cut scoring is ranked 122nd and 145th in overall scoring.

Ben Crane is not in his hottest form ever after suffering from a back injury but he still ranks 44th on the money list with a limited schedule. He is a good solid player who makes a lot of birdies. He is a strong putter and should enjoy this course more than Vegas (as in Jhonattan, not last week’s event!). His stats are in a different league to his two rivals here and for me anything bigger than EVS would be a backable price. So to see 11/8 generally was too good to turn down.

I also think Thatcher @ 9/4 is value to win his 3 ball against at 15.20 against Reavie and Matteson. Same applies with Boo Weekley @ 5/2 to beat Dimarco and Knost at 16.00. Walker looks another one near to banker material against Hearn and O’Hern at 20.40. 11/8 is an ok price about him but does not offer the same value as Ben Crane.

Frys.com rd 1, 3 balls.

4 pts Ben Crane to bt Allenby and Vegas @ 11/8 (tee off 15.50) (non runner)


Already recommended

Frys.com Open

2 pts each way Ben Crane @ 40/1(non runner)
0.5 pts each way Roberto Castro @ 110/1(-1pt)
0.5 pts each way Will Claxton @ 125/1 (-1pt)
0.5 pts each way Roland Thatcher @ 400/1 (-1pt)

Portugal Masters

1 pt each way Ross Fisher @ 40/1 (+10pt)
1.5 pts each way Eduardo Molinari @ 66/1 (-3pt)

2012 running total +178.15 points. This weeks investment 16 points. This weeks P&L = +4 pts

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf


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Frys.com Open and Portugal Masters

We won 7 points last week as Olesen came 2nd at 50/1 at the AD Links, he pushed the onwardly impressive Grace right to the 72nd hole. We also had some excitement in our 400/1 runner too, Anton Haig. He was right in the mix through 45 holes before falling away. Anyway, we move up to +178.15 points ahead for the year, or £1781.50 to a £10 stake.

Only time for a quick preview on the two events this week. Lets look at the States first.

The Frys.com Open is played at CordeValle Golf Club, California. It has big greens and will reward good putters, much like last week, but there is a bit more emphasis on driving. Last year driving distance was the 2nd shortest of the year showing that players had to think their way round instead of just overpowering the course.

I like Ben Crane 40/1, Roberto Castro 110/1, Overton 33/1, Will Claxton 125/1, John Rollins 66/1, Richard Lee 55/1, Billy Horschel 66/1 and Roland Thatcher 400/1.

For me Crane has a great game for this course. 16th in putting and 10th in birdies looks a good fit and is a fair price at 40/1.

Roberto Castro blew up last week after a decent opening two rounds. 19th in total driving, 19th in greens compliment his tidy short game. He has had a solid rookie season and can go well at a good price of 110/1.

Overton is solid all through the bag but has not quite been able to put it all together over the last couple of years. I like his chances in this week field but 33/1 is a little too short for me, 50/1 and he would be a bet.

Will Claxton, like Castro is in his rookie year after winning his card at Tour School. He is 89th on the money list so has his card pretty much tied up. He has two top 10’s this year including a tied 5th at the True South Classic. He was -18 there and scoring will be similarly deep this week. He is 19th in total driving and greens in regulation. He has a solid all round game and looks overpriced at 125/1.

Rollins ranks 3rd in total driving but does not take advantage from there. He is an ok price at 66/1 and has appeal but I can’t see him making enough birdies.

Richard Lee is a very solid, accurate player. There is a lot to like about his game. His stats are very similar to Huh who has already won this year. He is also gutsy, he birdied 4 of the last 5 at Tour School in December to get the last card. I think he will go well here but has only one top 10 this year which came last week when a closing 65 shot him up the board. I would like to back him as he needs another big week, sitting 149th on the Money List, but there are players like Claxton who I rate as good or better at twice the price which make Lee unbackable.

Billy Horschel is interesting. He is a good player that has been plagued by injury the last two years. He has only played 14 times this year on the PGA Tour and a few on the web.com. He has played only once since August which was on the web.com where he finished 7th on -20. He finished 3rd in the True South in July. The guy can play but the major concern is why all the time off? Has he been injured again? This throws up a big question mark and makes the initially generous looking 66/1 look to short.

Roland Thatcher is my value bet of the week. This guy loves an end of season surge. The last two seasons he has come from nowhere to clinch his card in the fall season. He has a solid long game and ranks 17th in greens this season. When he finds any form with the putter he contends. He ranks 179 in that category this season. He has missed his last four cuts and ranks 168th on the money list despite finishing solo 4th at the Travellers Championship in June. He needs to dig deep again and at 400/1 he is worth a small interest to pull it out the bag again this week.

The Portugal Masters in one of many events missing on the European Tour’s schedule for next year. In fact, any event hosted this season on the European mainland is odds on to be missing next year as the tour continues to struggle. Although the money is good in Portugal the field is not great, nor is the course, which is pretty much a field! It is a bombers paradise, which makes Francesco Molinari’s victory there last year even more impressive.

I like Ross Fisher and the defending champion’s brother this week. This course is perfect for Fish and I know he likes it there. 40/1 is fair. Eduardo only made 3 bogies last week at the Dunhill Links. He is bouncing back to form nicely and should give us a nice run at 66/1.

Frys.com Open

2 pts each way Ben Crane @ 40/1
0.5 pts each way Roberto Castro @ 110/1
0.5 pts each way Will Claxton @ 125/1
0.5 pts each way Roland Thatcher @ 400/1

Portugal Masters

1 pt each way Ross Fisher @ 40/1
1.5 pts each way Eduardo Molinari @ 66/1

2012 running total +178.15 points. This weeks investment 12 points.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf



Comments