UA-33754892-1 Archives for 07 November 2010 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Barclays Singapore Open, JBWere Australian Open, Childrens Miracle Network Classic

I have tipped Ben Crane a few times this year and finally at the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic we got paid. He birdied the last to win by 1 and was right in there and leading most the week. The 40/1 chance won us 50pts. Kiradech Aphibarnrat had poor first and final rounds but showed his quality in the middle two rounds, finishing a couple of shots outside the places. Seung-Yol Noh was the disappointment. The European Tour was in Valderrama and the main selection, Eduardo Mollanari was again poor and missed the cut. Jimenez and Fisher had good solid weeks and finished inside the top 10. We lost 11 points but won 50pts on Crane, showing a 39 point profit for the week and a 201.8 pt profit for the year. Or £2018 to a £10 stake.

This week looks very difficult. Good players spread across the world. The strongest field is in Singapore and also the biggest, with over 200 players teeing it up. Australia has defending champion and world number 2 Tiger woods at the head of the market, 8 US Tour players sit behind him in the betting with the rest of the field seems to be made up of no-name Australian players. The market in Australia looks like our best chance. The final event of the season on the US Tour is at Disneyland. A funny event as the scoring goes seriously low and is in pro am format for the first 2 days. When scoring goes low and there is no real test to the course it is tough to find the winner, although a good putter is a must.

So, lets try find them. First up the Children's Miracle Classic. As I said the scoring goes seriously low here, in fact in the last four years it has had the lowest or second lowest scoring average on the US Tour. The forecast is perfect, with the wind on Friday possibly kicking up, but only to a moderate level. So stats wise we are looking for greens in regulation, putting and birdies. Rickie Fowler, Overton, Cink, O'Hair and Holmes have obvious chances but I am not keen to back players are short prices in events like this. Therefore there is only one player for me in this field. Brendon De Jonge. The Zimbabwean has had 7 top 10's this year on a mix of easy and tough courses. He leads the tour in total birdies, is 15th in greens in regulation, 37th in putting and 8th in all round ranking. He makes plenty of appeal at 40/1.

The Barclays Singapore Open is a tough one to call. A strong field, a big field and a lot of players playing in conditions that may not suit. Two main factors here are course management and positioning around a tough golf course as well as dealing with some serious heat. Instinctively I thought Jimenez would be a great bet here, but when you look into his form in Asia it is a long way from impressive and he has had a long hard schedule of events leading into this. It looks so competitive at the head of this market with Kaymer, Francesco Mollanari, Scott, Mcdowell, Mickelson, Poulter and Harrington all having strong claims. I can not pick between them so again I am going to try and bring some value to the table. The aforementioned Thai player Kiradech Aphibarnrat has some serious credentials. At the age of 21 he sits 6th on the Asian Tour order of merit. He was World Junior Champion in 2003 and 2004 as well as being a Gold Medalist at the World University Games. He won the Sinha Pattaya Open last year. He has form in Singapore with a T18th in the Handa Singapore Classic earlier this year and recent form with his 67-64 middle two rounds in Malaysia. My only fear is his nickname of Asia's John Daly due to his hefty physique and grip it and rip it attacking style may not necessarily suit the course. However, at 200/1 I am prepared to take the risk. I think Seung-Yul Noh has done him a real favour. He is the guy who is in the limelight and taking the pressure off of Aphibarnrat and maybe even giving him a tow. Take the 200/1.

My old pal Simon Griffiths is also in the field, he needs a good week and it is a big big ask but at 1000/1 he is worth a small each way interest. Everyone knows he could breeze this event with a realisation of his own ability and if he allows himself to play as he can he can definitely get a place here.

Woods has gone winless this year for the first time since he turned pro 14 years ago. He is 5/2 in a weak field in an event he won last year. He led from start to finish last time but the venue has changed. This year the event has been moved to Victoria. Another McKenzie course. Last time the event was here the winning score was -19, remarkable considering it was only a 54 hole event in the end! Can Woods do this? Yes. Did his putting look like he could do this last week? No. But, different greens, different week and back intro the swing of tournament golf after a break and I make him a bet at 5/2.

I would not put anyone off backing the 2nd and 3rd favourites against him each way. But I think they are both vulnerable. Ogilvy has no form despite reports he is hitting it better than ever and Allenby may well struggle to putt well enough to keep up. On a positive, this is Ogilvy's home course and Allenby is also a member here. But I am going to go for another home town boy, my old roommate, Daniel Gaunt. He has had an outrageously good year and his scoring average would be incredible. Starting on the Europro Tour he dominated that for the first half of the year, wrapping up the order of merit in 7 events. On the Pro 66 Tour he played 8 events and finished 1,1,3,3,3,3,1,1. He then won the English Challenge on the Challenge Tour. Dan ended up winning £97,521 in 11 events, finishing 7th on the Order of Merit and reclaiming a European Tour card. He loves the course and his chances. Gaunty is my each way bet at 66/1.

Barclays Singapore Open
1.5 pts each way Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 200/1
0.25 pts each way Simon Griffiths @ 1000/1

Children's Miracle Network Classic
2 pts each way Brendon De Jonge @ 40/1

JBWere Australian Masters
4 pts win Tiger Woods @ 5/2
1.5 pts each way Daniel Gaunt @ 66/1

(running total + 201.08 points, this weeks investment 14.5 points)