UA-33754892-1 Archives for 07 February 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Tshwane Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

Tshwane Open - Outright
1 point each way Clément Sordet @ 80/1 (90/1 with Stan James) (-2 points)
0.75 points each way Dean Burmester @ 33/1 (40/1 with Stan James) (+4 points)
2 points George Coetzee @ 8/1 (-2 points)

Tshwane Open - Outright in Running
1 point each way Anthony Micheal @ 28/1 (1/4 1-4) (+6 points)

Tshwane Open - 72 Hole Matches
9 points Keith Horne @ 7/10 to beat David Drysdale (bet365) (-9 points)
9 points Brandon Stone @ 10/11 to beat Haydn Porteous (bet365) (-9 points)

Tshwane Open - Day 1 Matches
2 points Brandon Stone 20/23 to beat Haydn Porteous (-2 points)

Tshwane Open - Day 2 Three Balls
2 points Dylan Frittelli @ 5/4 to beat Lundberg and Gronewald (-2 points)
2 points Dean Burmester @ Evs to beat Roos and Oli Fisher (+2 points)
2 points Merrick Bremner @ 6/4 to beat Mulroy and Davies (-2 points)
2 points Jason Scrivener @ 11/8 to beat Bezuidenhout and Kinhult (+2.75 points)

Tshwane Open - Day 2 Matches
2 points Jacque Blaauw @ 10/11 to beat Ryan Evans (Bet365) (+1.82 points)
2 points George Coetzee @ 10/11 to beat Charl Schwartzel (Bet365) (-2 points)

Tshwane Open - Day 3 Matches
2 points Dean Burmeister @ Evs to beat Haydn Porteous (bet365) (push)

Tshwane Open - Day 4 Two Balls
2 points Brett Rumford @ 8/15 to beat Rourke Van Der Spuy (+1.67 points)
2 points Anthony Michael @ 19/10 to beat Haydn Porteous (+3.8 points)

Tshwane Open - Day 4 Matches
2 points Dean Burmester @ 21/20 Haydn Porteous (+2.1 points)

AT&T Pebble Beach - Outright
3 points Jordan Spieth @ 5/1 (-3 points)
1 point each way Ryan Moore @ 50/1 (-2 points)

AT&T Pebble Beach - Day 1 Two Balls
2 points Kevin Na @ 6/10 to beat Jason Kokrak (+1.2 points)
2 points Jimmy Walker @ 4/9 to beat Chris Stroud (-2 points)

AT&T Pebble Beach - Day 2 Two Balls
2 points Kevin Na @ 8/15 to beat Jason Kokrak (-2 points)
2 points Chez Ravie @ 11/10 to beat Bryce Molder (+2.2 points)
4 points Justin Rose @ 4/7 to beat William McGirt (+2.29 points)
2 points Luke Donald @ 8/11 to beat Ben Martin (+1.45 points)

2 points Brandt Snedeker @ 4/9 to beat Davis Love III (-2 points)
2 points J.B. Holmes @ 8/15 to beat Jerry Kelly (-2 points)

AT&T Pebble Beach - Day 2 Matches
2 points Chez Reavie @ 10/11 to beat Bryce Molder (Bet365) (+1.82 points)

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am - Day 3 Two Balls
2 points Bill Haas @ 4/6 to beat Ian Pouter (+1.34 points)
2 points Hunter Mahan @ 8/11 to beat Bo Van Pelt (-2 points)
2 points Kevin Na @ 7/10 to beat Jason Kokrak (-2 points)
2 points Justin Rose @ 6/10 to beat William McGirt (-2points)

2 points Luke Donald @ 8/13 to beat Ben Martin (+1.23 points)

1 point each way double Jordan Spieth @ 5/1 and George Coetzee @ 8/1 (-2 points)

This week's P&L = -15.33 points
This week’s investment = 84.5 points

This week's Outright P&L =
-5 points
This weeks's Outright Investment = 10.5 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L =
-10.33 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 74 points

Last Week

We had a good week last week, especially on the match bets and three balls where we had 10 winners from 11 bets.  An got a place for us in Dubai @ 28/1 but Na disappointed in Phoenix having started the final round in 10th.  

Quite a few people have requested daily emails (on tournament days) so I have set up a group separate from the outright emails.  If you would like to be included please email and I will add you to the new group.  They will be posted online anyway.  

I am back from Marrakech and Spain now but go to Scottsdale and Vegas this week but I will endeavour to get the updates out at a time that is suitable in the UK.

Tshwane Open

I see Schwartzel as a very weak favourite here. Even when he was playing some of his best golf he struggled to find top gear in the Vodacom Championships, which was also played around Pretoria CC. Coetzee defends here and although he missed the cut in the SA Open, after a long break, I expect him to go well at a venue that provides a little 'horses for courses' type form.

Dean Burmeister has had a solid South African swing. 11th at the Dunhill, 10th in the SA Open and 31st in Joburg. He finished 3rd here last year and there is every reason to think he will take another decent check from his European Tour starts.

I like Rumford too who was going well here last year before falling seriously ill in the 3rd round and withdrawing to have emergency surgery. I think it was an apple core stuck in his intestines and he ended up having a large section removed Anyway, his opening 64 certainly catches the eye and has been in decent form since his return to action. I just think 33/1 flatters him a little still.

I think Clément Sordet is worth chancing though. He turned pro last year after a successful college career at Texas. He won a pro event as an amateur, an event I played, in France in 2011 and won in Ireland on his rookie season on the Challenge Tour last year. His most notable form was his 2nd place in Thailand to Jamie Donaldson. He beat Garcia, An, Westwood, Colsaerts, Aphibarnrat, Fitzpatrick, Bubba etc there. It is very eye-catching and although that was a while ago and we don't have much other form to go on, it certainly shows his ability. It was a while ago but if he can reproduce anything like that he will beat this field comfortably. He is value at 80/1, 90/1 with Stan James.

AT&T Pebble Beach

This is pretty competitive at the top with unpredictable weather forecast and a pro am format played over multiple courses it is tough to get carried away. However, I do think Spieth wins. 5/1 is a short price and makes him an obvious pick but I still think it is fair. I have Bubba Watson (who may struggle with his lack of patience in the pro am format and very slow play), Jimmy Walker (who always plays great around here (9-9-3-1-21) but looks short at 18/1 in a quality line up) and Ryan Moore as his closest challengers.

Out of these three Ryan Moore is the bet. Although he has only played here once in the last five years (finished 20th in 2012) I like the fit for him. At the start of this season (end of last year) he finished 10th in the Frys, 43rd in the Shriners, 10th in the CIMB and 10th last week in Phoenix after a long break. He is obviously sharpe enough and tends to produce his best early in the season. 50/1 makes him the value of the three main challengers.

Behind these there are players open to a lot of improvement (Rose, Day, Palmer, Dustin Johnson) and others whose tournament form is worth noting (Snedeker, Mickelson, Dustin (again)). However, they either have questions to answer or do not represent value. Reed is another I like but his 81 in the 3rd round of the Farmers before his withdraw is a concern.

2016 Total P&L = -13.92 points
2016 Total Investment = 179.5 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L = -7.95 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 45.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L = -5.97 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 134 points

2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

To get the tips first send an email to with the subject ‘register'.
To get in running and match betting advice first email with the subject 'specials'.

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.