UA-33754892-1 Archives for 07 April 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Masters Day 3

Els had a good finish to beat Stricker on day 1 to make our opening day acca a loser. Fortunately Poutler kept his US stroke play record going with a missed cut and made our 72 hole match bet with Stricker a winner. Just for 2.2 points, but a winner all the same.

Nearly all the betting talk this morning is about Woods and a potential DQ for an illegal drop on the 15th yesterday. I don’t think he will be DQ’d. He will state his intentions were to drop it as close as possible and it turned out it was 2 yards further back and his interview will become irrelevant. The bookies prices have not moved their prices much in response but I took some 7/1 on Betfair earlier about Woods and laid 6/1 Day. This is purely on the basis that I think he will tee it up and will be more than happy to trade out at maybe 4/1 and 10/1 when he does. Oh, and Mcilroy at 10/1 and shorter is a bad price. Garcia on the same score at 50/1 is surely much more desirable. However, we have Stricker, Garcia and Snedeker already who are still very much alive in this event and therefore any further outright plays when there are so many strong players in the mix is not recommended.

A few of the third round matches look interesting. I think Peter Hanson will beat Huh at 5/6, I think Bradley will beat Gay @ 3/5, I think Stenson will beat even the most drugged up Vijay Singh @ 5/6 and a fired up Woods should dispatch a nervous Fernandez-Castono @ 2/5. Castono may hit a few interesting putts in that game! Like Bubba Watson who seems to have developed a real yip in his stroke, almost fun to watch on occasion, just watch his hands!

All these I think will win but are not exactly flashy prices. I think the one to be on is Garrigus @ 5/4 (as big as 13/10) to beat Kaymer. Kaymer looks vulnerable and some may say Augusta has been the undoing of the former world number 1. He tried to change his game and swing to suit Augusta and he has been on a downward spiral since. Kaymer ranks 165th in driving accuracy, 167 in greens in reg, 145 in putting, 103 in eagles, 188 in birdies, 158 in scoring (72.218), 188 (last) in total driving, 188 (last) in ball striking and 162 in scrambling. This week he is slightly improved. 60% of fairways, 69% of greens which is above average and better than Garrigus but he has had 65 putts in two rounds. Statistically his ball striking may not hold up, especially if he tries to keep up with Garrigus and if the putter stays cold he could rack up a few numbers, despite the perfect conditions forecast.

Garrigus is not in the form of last year yet but he has 2 top 10’s in 8 starts and his 3 eagles in 2 rounds so far shows his fire power. I am not sure how he is not favourite in this match up.

Stat Garrigus Kaymer
GIR 31 167
putting 144 145
scoring 69 158
eagles 38 103
birdies 15 188
t. driving 67 188
ball striking 41 188
scrambling 113 162

They tee off at 15.15 GMT. Get on.

The Masters - 3rd round 2 balls

4 pts Garrigus to beat Kaymer @ 5/4 (13/10 with youwin) (+5 pts)


(Already advised)

The Masters - 72 hole matches

2 pts Stricker to beat Poulter @ 11/10 (+2.2 pts)

The Masters - 1st round 3 balls

1 pt accumulator Henley to bt Gay and Mize @ evs, Bubba Watson to beat Poulter and Fox @ 11/10, Woods to beat Donald and Piercy @ 18/19, Stricker to beat Els and Watney @ 7/4 (-1pt)

The Masters


1.5 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 66/1
0.5 pts each way Russell Henley @ 175/1 (-1pt)
1 pt each way Sergio Garcia @ 45/1
1 pt each way Brant Snedeker @ 40/1

The Masters - Specials

0.5 pts each way Henrik Stenson @ 55/1 to be first round leader. (-1pt)


2013 running total = -75.75 pts. This week’s investment 16 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.


Comments

The Masters Matches

There are a few of the 72 hole match bets that look appealing. I like Stenson to beat Watney @ 4/5 (Betfred), Haas to beat Kaymer @ 8/11 (Sportingbet) and Bradley to beat Dufner @ 8/13 (VC). However, at the prices I am not too keen to back them as singles and as they are not priced up by one bookie it is tricky to have a treble. If you ask nearly all bookmakers to lay you the bets at the prices they will after a quick chat with their odds compilers. However, because of this complication I will not make it a pick.

I will however take Poulter on. He plays the first two rounds with Bubba Watson and I watched them play in the same group at Sawgrass a couple of years ago and Poulter did not like it. It looked like the arrogance was sucked out of him, like he didn’t feel like he would compete with it. I know he had a great opening two rounds last year but check his stroke play record in the States and it is very, very weak. He is worth taking on. It is just a question of wether I do it with Stricker @ 11/10 with Bet 365 or with Garcia @ Evs with VC. Stricker is more reliable as you know he will be trying and grinding all the way, no matter what, but Garcia can spit it and if his head goes down he can rack up numbers quickly. Also, Stricker is slightly closer in the draw to Poulter so they will be playing in fairly similar conditions. With the wind set to pick up as the day goes on you do not want to be out too far behind.

In the first round 3 balls I like 4 matches. I like Henley to beat Gay and Mize @ Evs, Bubba Watson to beat Poulter and Fox @ 11/10, Stricker to beat Els and Watney @ 7/4 and Woods to beat Donald and Piercy @ 18/19. A 1pt accumulator pays 21.49 pts.

The Masters - 72 hole matches

2 pts Stricker to beat Poulter @ 11/10 (+2.2 pts)

The Masters - 1st round 3 balls

1 pt accumulator Henley to bt Gay and Mize @ evs, Bubba Watson to beat Poulter and Fox @ 11/10, Woods to beat Donald and Piercy @ 18/19, Stricker to beat Els and Watney @ 7/4 (-1pt)


(Already advised)
The Masters


1.5 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 66/1
0.5 pts each way Russell Henley @ 175/1 (-1pt)
1 pt each way Sergio Garcia @ 45/1
1 pt each way Brant Snedeker @ 40/1

The Masters - Specials

0.5 pts each way Henrik Stenson @ 55/1 to be first round leader. (-1pt)


2013 running total = -75.75 pts. This week’s investment 12 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments

The Masters

Lets do the formalities from last week so we can move quickly to what we really want to do, have a look at the best week in golf, the US Masters. Jordan Spieth had an awful putting week and missed the cut, despite leading the tournament after 16 holes on Thursday. Cameron Tringale also missed the cut, breaking a strong run of form. Jimmy Walker kept climbing the leaderboard ladder before he would miss a step and go back to where he started, snakes and ladders style. He could never maintain once he got himself in the mix. Scott Brown refound last seasons form and it would not surprise me if we saw a long string of missed cuts from him now. He looks like another confidence player who has lost it right now. Our 200/1 first round leader bet, Brad Fritsch, started with a double and ended up missing out on a return by a single shot. Close but no cigar. Another losing week sees us slip to -75.75pts for the year. If it is any consolation we were in a worse financial position going into The Masters last year and won over 150 points on the year. Believe!

The Masters week is just a dreamy week. I wish it was all still on BBC as my golf season always felt like it started as soon as the famous music kicked in on Thursday night. There is no other TV show I anticipated more as a kid growing up, and still now. For me this is the ultimate in TV golf. I love it. This year’s renewal looks as good as any.

Surely the wearer of the green jacket come Sunday night all revolves around Tiger Woods. He is a very worthy favourite. With form since ’05 of 1,3,2,2,6,4,4,40 one must believe if he can continue to putt the way he has been nobody can touch him. It really will not matter how he hits it. At Bay Hill he ranked 71st out of 73 in driving accuracy and still hosed up. He made up over 11.5 shots on the field in putting that week. If he had putted the field average he would have finished 27th! So, if Woods putts good 4/1 or even 7/2 is a fair price. We are all aware of his imperious record at Augusta and we have all seen him do everything badly and still contend come Sunday. To be honest, I can’t see him getting beaten but still can’t make myself back him at the price.

My main concern with Woods are his ball striking and scrambling. They are rarely as average as they are right now. 147th in driving accuracy (was 15th last year going into The Masters) 76th in greens in reg (5th last year) 79th in ball striking (1st last year) and 84th in scrambling (8th last year). Like I say the putter is the key, as it is with anyone who wants to win at Augusta, but if it is not on, one would have to see a decent amount of improvement in the rest of his game to still get it done. Augusta is not as forgiving as most of the courses he fills his schedule with.

The other guy in my view they got to beat is Charl Schwartzel. The 2011 Champion has star quality and is in strong form. He has 12 top 25’s in a row and the main reason for this again is his putter. He ranks 17th on Tour in putting and ranked 10th in putting last week in San Antonio. The negative with Charl is his form outside his win. A 30th and a 50th is not overly impressive. 25/1 is a fair price in a competitive market.

One has to think that Mickelson and Rory will put in their runs. Mickelson loves Augusta and has an impressive record with 3 wins and a further 7 top 5’s. He always gets in the mix and he appears to be a place certainty, as long as he is settled on a putting method he is sure of another big challenge, he knows how to do it around here. 11/4 the place has some appeal but his stats are far from stunning. 95th in ball striking, 89th in scrambling and 45th in putting hold some concern. (9th in putting going into this last year). I would have Rory and Mickelson the other way around in the betting. Rory looked like he was turning the corner last week in Texas but his putting is still not what he needs to be. In my view Mickelson is more of an 8/1 chance than Rory. I would never ever take 8/1 Rory right now. Especially around here when I have not seen him hole a left to right putt for weeks. His rank of 93rd in scrambling is further concern. 8/1 is a very poor price.

So who is a good bet for this years Masters? I think the best bet by quite a long way is Steve Stricker. 66/1 is a huge price about the 46 year old. Admittedly his Augusta record is not great. Since ’07 he has finished mc, mc, 6, 30, 11, 47. However, this guy ranks 35th in ball striking, 4th in scrambling, 10th in putting, 9th in scoring and 1st in my all round ranking. So far this year he has played 3 events and has finished 2nd, 5th, 2nd and 38th. One of his seconds was to a red hot Woods at Doral, an event with strong form lines to Augusta. See Bubba, Charl, Woods, Mickelson etc in previous years. For an example Bubba finished 2nd at Doral last year before winning Augusta. I hope Stricker can imitate that! He is my main selection this week. Not because he is the most likely winner by any means, I just think he is the wrong price. Stricker has beaten, for example, Rickie Fowler in every tournament they have both played in this year, Fowler has never had a top 25 at Augusta, so how is Fowler 50/1 and Stricker 66/1? The forecast is good for the week, a little windy the first two days. In my view the tougher and windier it gets the better it is for Stricker. He hits it low off the tee and if more players are forced to lay up on par 5s his wedge play advantage will really come to the fore. I hope he will play smart like a Zach Johnson or Immelman did when winning on the par 5’s. If he does, he can out stay many of these without having their fire power.

After winning the Tour Championship and the Fedex Cup last year and starting this year with finishes of 3,23,2,2,1 and being a whopping 82 under par for these 5 events Snedeker rightly got backed in from 66/1 to 16/1 for The Masters. He has good course form and could have won here in 2008 if it were not for a closing 77. He finished 41st in ’04, 3rd in ’08, mc in ’09, 15th in ’11 and 19th last year. But, and it is a big but, since his hot start he had time off for a rib injury and only has two missed cuts to his name since. Now there are excuses for these but are they justifiable enough to make him a bet at 40/1? At Bay Hill he shot 76, 76 for an 8 over total. He was 8 over for the 17th and 18th holes that week. In Houston he played mostly steady stuff with a cold putter then threw in a couple of poor mistakes which lead to the missed cut. He hit some hooks from tees which proved costly. He compounded one of these hooks by hitting his next shot left handed into a hazard. The break after the hot streak all in should have done him good and we know he is fit. He had not played any golf whilst resting his rib so he was understandably rusty at Bay Hill and carried that into Houston. A week off, some practice means I think he will be ready to go. He is the type of player who plays of momentum and rarely turns it around but if he does get off to a good start I expect him to be in there come Sunday and he is not scared of winning any more. He is a bet at 40/1.

It is a big call to go with Snedeker as there are so many around him in the market at 25/1 to 40/1 who you can make a good case for. The one I really wanted to be on was Keegan Bradley. Anyone who has asked me over the past few weeks who I fancy he has been my answer. He was easy to back at 40/1 but now, after finishing 4th, 7th, 3rd and 20th the last four weeks there is only 30/1 available in one place, generally a 28/1 chance. This means he falls into a category of players like Schwartzel, Oosthuizen, Scott, Dustin Johnson and Lee Westwood and I am not sure I’d rather be backing Bradley at the same price as them, instead of them.

Therefore I am going to stick with my other antepost fancy, Sergio Garcia. I rate him just above Bradley and I can back him at 45/1. The only major stat category that Bradley beats Garcia in this season is scrambling. Bradley has played on easier courses than Garcia this year so that accounts for that a little. The two negatives for Garcia are firstly he pulled out of Bay Hill stating a reoccurrence of an old shoulder injury, but it is more likely he wanted to get out of there as he was going badly in the final round and did not want to hang around for a Monday finish. Secondly his Masters record is fairly average. Since ’02 he has finished 8th, 28th, 4th, mc, 46th, mc, mc, 38th, 45th, 35th, 12th. However, he looks to be a much better player right now. Since winning the Wyndham last year he has finished 1,3,24,15,13,17,3,7,wd on the PGA Tour. The last 3rd place was at Doral which, as mentioned, represents a good form line. Before his withdrawal he had 13 straight top 25’s worldwide. 14th in ball striking, 30th in putting (10th last year) and 3rd in scoring bode well. For someone in good form he comes into this a little under the radar. If his brain does not get involved and his talent comes out he can break his Major duck here.

I am fully aware that debutants have no chance here but that is not going to stop me from taking a bit of the 175/1 about Russell Henley. No debutant has won since Zoeller in 1979 but rookies had no record at the Sony Open, an event he won which was also his first event as a member of the PGA Tour, his 3rd PGA Tour start ever. No one had achieved that since 2001. He has won 3 web.com events, one as an amateur, the 2nd amateur ever to do that and finished top amateur at the 2010 US Open which lead to him winning the Haskins Award as top college golfer in 2010. He has a real pedigree and is not afraid of breaking the ‘unwritten rules’ of what you should or shouldn’t achieve as a golfer. This week Tom Watson is his mentor and he will be playing all his practice rounds with him as well as the par 3 competition. He is a great guy to learn from as well as a calming influence. He ranks 21st in ball striking and 20th in putting which is a nice combo. He is worth a pop at a big price.

My final bet is Henrik Stenson to be first round leader. Stenson is a reformed golfer since hanging on to his PGA Tour card at the end of last year and then winning the South African Open at the start of this year. He is hard to ignore here as he ranks 1st in ball striking, 1st in driving accuracy, 1st in scrambling and 10th in scoring. He has finished 8th and 2nd on his last two outings on the PGA Tour, the 2nd in Houston got him back into the top 50 in the world and to the Masters for the 8th consecutive year. I can’t back him in the outright market as he is still liable to making big numbers, as we saw last year when he shot 71,71,70,81. In the first round he was -5 playing the last, and with 2 bogies on the card already, he managed to make a quadruple bogie 8 up the last. I think it is worth taking the 55/1 on him to be the first round leader rather than back him outright.

I will be looking at some specials and match bets later this evening, will let you know if there is anything interesting.


The Masters

1.5 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 66/1
0.5 pts each way Russell Henley @ 175/1
1 pt each way Sergio Garcia @ 45/1
1 pt each way Brant Snedeker @ 40/1

The Masters - Specials

0.5 pts each way Henrik Stenson @ 55/1 to be first round leader.


2013 running total = -75.75 pts. This week’s investment 9 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.


















Comments