UA-33754892-1 Archives for 06 October 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Portugal Masters and Open

I am in Sardinia this week. That combined with the fact that we have two pretty average events to look at means there is no in depth write up this week, just the picks.

I also apologise for some IOS7 toothing problems with the emails and I know some received them up to 3 times.

Last week Gregory Bourdy, our top combined points scorer bet in the Seve Trophy, finished with a 100% record to land the 33/1 recommendation.

We made 20.63 points from Bourdy but lost 2 points on the first day fourball double. We lost a further point on the USA to lead 6-0 after day 1 despite looking in great shape before the weather delay. A further 0.5 points went on the Presidents Cup correct score. All in we won 17.13 points leaving us -8.74 points for the year.

This week we have the Portuguese Masters from the Victoria course in the Algarve and the Open from CordeValle Golf Club, California.

Portugal appears to be wide open and it seems hard to make a decent argument for anyone at the top of the market. The players I liked were Lowry, Fisher, Paul Lawrie, Jaidee, Havret, Fleetwood, Jimenez and Luiten but none of the prices were over appealing. I was going to sit this one out, as a few of the players may be tired from Seve Cup duties etc. but instead I am going to make a small, loyal, play on Brandon Stone @ 275/1. This wide open long course should suit him and his display at tour school last week was mature with limited errors.

The is a similar story. I am going to back Matsuyama as I think he is an unreal talent. It’s his first event as a PGA Tour member and although he may be a little tired after last week’s Presidents Cup he oozes class. He won in Japan again last month and has an impressive 8 top 25’s worldwide in a row. 25/1 is ok.

Russell Henley won his first event after graduating from the tour and I think a few of the graduates this year look decent and can do the same. The three I like are Ben Martin @ 66/1, John Peterson @ 40/1 and Chesson Hadley @ 80/1. I know it is a big ask but Martin’s stats were incredible last year, Peterson has 5 consecutive top 5’s and has already posted two top 10’s on the main tour and Hadley won last time out. When talented, young, players run hot it is incredible what they can achieve if they run with it.

However, the one that looks the bet is Martin. He had 8 top 10’s in 22 starts including two wins and two thirds. Peterson looks priced correctly and Hadley is a long hitter which is not a huge advantage here. This is more about accuracy. Martin ranked 2nd in ball striking, 2nd in greens in regulation and 5th in total driving. Couple that with 3rd in birdies and 2nd in scoring average it is clear the guy can play. He ranks 1st in bounce back making a birdie over 30% of the time after dropping a shot. This is a good insight into not just ability but mental approach and attitude. 66/1 is worth a play.

Portugal Masters

0.5 points each way Bradon Stone @ 275/1 (-1 point) Open

1.5 points
each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 25/1 (+7.88 points)

1 point each way Ben Martin @ 66/1 (-2 points)

2013 running total = -8.74 points. This week’s investment 6 points. This weeks P&L = +4.88 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.