UA-33754892-1 Archives for 06 November 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Singapore Open and Australian Open

The HSBC Champions event last week looked promising after one round. Three of our four players were in the top ten at that point but come Sunday Bo Van Pelt was the only one in with a realistic chance of a place and he duly disappointed in the final round. We lost 11 points. Our 2011 running total dropped to +307.54 points in profit or +£3075.40 to a £10 stake.

So on to this week. Two tournaments boasting impressive line ups mainly due to players looking for a warm up to next week’s Presidents Cup. Well, that and a bucket load of cash!

Lets have a look at Singapore first. The event is played over two courses during the first two rounds, both at Sentosa Golf Club. This is to accommodate an enormous field of nearly 200 players. That is the first factor that makes picking a winner a little difficult. The second is that the event is co-sanctioned between the Asian and European Tours and I will be honest with you there are a lot of players in this line up I know nothing about. The one thing I do know is that since the event has been played at Sentosa long hitters have dominated. Adam Scott has won it three times and Cabrera, Milkha Singh and Poulter once each. Poulter the only exception to the long hitting rule.

If Adam Scott was in the field it would be hard not to back him on recent form and course form no matter what his price. However he is not defending his title. He plays in Australia. This means the $6 million event has no clear favourite. Mickelson, Mcdowell and Anthony Kim are vying for favouritism at around the 18/1 mark.

This is a tough one to pick a winner in. You can make a case for the front three as well as Rose, Dyson, Els and Fisher but none of the prices are particularly appealing and all of them are far from certainties. Therefore I am going to go with some value.

The first thing I noticed when scouting throughout the prices was just how far Nick Dougherty has fallen. I am fully aware of his horrific run over the past two years and understand that he is going to lose his card. I also know that his biggest cheque by quite a way, as it represents 50% of the cheques he has won this year, was for winning the pro am at the Dunhill Links. He won the main event there a few years ago, he also finished 7th in the US Open and won two other big events in Europe in a run that made him ‘the future of English golf’. The heir to Faldo’s thrown, who was the man who mentored him in his younger years. It just really dawned on me that a player of his calibre is available at 500/1, nestled between Pariya Junhasavasdikul and Joonas Granberg in the betting. I know he will go up another 0.1 for each of his rounds again this week but I just thought I would point it out.

Alright, here are my two picks for the Singapore Open. Prayad Marksaeng and Jbe Kruger. Marksaeng is not the longest by any means averaging just 282 yards from the tee. He is not on red hot form either but 11-41-7-2-11-45 shows he playing well enough. The three key factors for me are a 70.17 stroke average (rank 1), a top ten here last year after opening with 69-65 before fizzling out and a price of 200/1. This is good enough for me to have a small interest. Jbe Kruger is a player I have picked a few times this year. 100/1 is an acceptable price, even in a field of this quality, as I do rate this guy. He is a small statured born again Christian but he can seriously shift it. Last year he lead the greens in regulation on the Asian Tour, this year he is 9th, 12th in stroke average and 7th in birdies per round. He is due a win in Asia having finished 2nd four times in two seasons. He has the ability to contend here despite his missed cut last season.

The Australian Open looks like a US Tour event. There will be Aussies up there on Sunday but it is hard to look past the US Tour players. Apart from John Daly. He has got another invite. Not sure how many that is for the season but it is a disgustingly high number for a player who makes no effort himself. He will not enter any Tour Schools unlike Duval, Janzen etc who have done exactly that. Perhaps playing them are below him. He lost his head in the States earlier this year when he requested an invite and was turned down so he came to Europe. He played in Austria and walked off when he had a disagreement with a referee. In my view he does not add to a tournament anymore, I used to be a big fan. He thinks the game owes him something, it doesn’t. It has given him too many chances now, he needs to put something back in and not just take big opportunities away from more deserving players who would love a chance to play his unwarranted schedule.

Anyway, 10/1 Jason Day is an appalling price. He has not played for almost two months and is way too short. Scott 8/1 is a fair price but he has only won once in Aus and this course does not play to his strengths. The Lakes has three short par fives and six par fours under 400 yards. This could be a battle of accuracy and the short stick.

I like Kuchar 20/1, Mahan 16/1, Watney 18/1, Toms 33/1, Senden 25/1 and Scott 8/1. It is the usual battle of trying to separate Kuchar, Mahan and Watney. Kuchar and Mahan have not won this year but both had solid seasons all the same. Watney has won but is more inconsistent. The course sets up better for Kuchar and Mahan so lets discount the sometimes wayward Watney. Kuchar must be a little rusty after three weeks off. Three weeks ago he did not do much on his home course and is a player who plays his best when playing in a long run of events. So despite how well it sets up for him lets take Kuchar out. That leaves Mahan, but 16/1 does not really appeal for someone who has not won this year. Ok, so I eliminated all three! Senden has a big chance but is impossible to back when you look at the quality around him in the market. 25/1 is too short. That leaves me with Toms and Scott. Scott has good recent form and will be up for this. Hmmmmm tempting. Toms is definitely a bet. He played some inconsistent stuff last week in Shanghai but should have shaken the rust off. The main concern is his lack of form outside of America but this course looks perfect for him. 33/1 is a nice price. Woods and Dustin Johnson will have their supporters this week but at 11/1 and 16/1 I will leave them alone.

In conclusion…. these are two difficult events to make picks. There is plenty of cream but hard to know which cream will rise to the top and none of the cream is particularly good value, but still way better than the big priced outsiders who don’t seem to have too much of a chance.

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -

Singapore Open

0.5 pts each way Jbe Kruger @ 100/1
0.5 pts each way Prayad Marksaeng @ 200/1

Australian Open

3 pts Adam Scott @ 8/1
2 pts each way David Toms @ 33/1

Special Bet

4 x 0.5 pt trebles and a 0.5 pt accumulator -

Jbe Kruger to be top South African in Singapore @ 14/1
Mickelson to bt Mcdowell @ 4/5 (72hole matchbet)
E. Mollanari to bt C. Nilsen @ 10/11 (72hole matchbet)
Dyson to bt F. Mollanari @ 10/11 (72 hole matchbet)

2011 running total +307.54 pts This weeks investment 11.5 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.