UA-33754892-1 Archives for 06 May 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Players Championship and Rocco Forte Open

The Rocco Forte Open (In running after round 3)


Top 5


33.10 points Francesco Laporta @ 7 (-33.10)



The Players Championship



To Win


232.12 points Webb Simpson @ 2.86 (+431.74)


Webb Simpson has a 5 shot lead. This can disappear quickly, especially on a course like Sawgrass, but my model suggests he should still win from here 51% of the time. The best of the books suggest he will only win 35% of the time. There is decent value in this short price. I am going to take the 2.86.

Elsewhere the value lies with two I have already backed, Brooks Koepka (who made a 7 on the par 3 17th yesterday after getting to 8 under par) and Jimmy Walker who sits on -7, 8 behind.

Everything revolves around Simpson. If the former US Open can play solid, steady golf and continue to putt the way he is he is going to be very difficult to catch. It appears to be in his hands.

JK




player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
£100
To Lose
Ex V.
Webb Simpson
35%
2.86

1.95
51%
16%
186
49%
47
Jason Day
10%
10.3

13
8%
-2%
930
92%
-20
Patrick Cantlay
8%
12.8

21
5%
-3%
1180
95%
-39
Alex Noren
7%
15.3

34
3%
-4%
1430
97%
-55
Charl Schwartzel
6%
18.1

19
5%
0%
1710
95%
-4
Dustin Johnson
5%
19.6

18
6%
1%
1860
94%
12
Chesson Hadley
4%
27

63
2%
-2%
2600
98%
-57
Sergio Garcia
3%
39

53
2%
-1%
3800
98%
-27
Jon Rahm
2%
41

45
2%
0%
4000
98%
-9
Xander Schauffele
2%
41

56
2%
-1%
4000
98%
-27
Henrik Stenson
2%
49

64
2%
0%
4800
98%
-24
Bryson DeChambeau
2%
51

117
1%
-1%
5000
99%
-57
Charles Howell III
2%
54

44
2%
0%
5300
98%
23
Danny Lee
2%
54

52
2%
0%
5300
98%
3
Steve Stricker
1%
69

65
2%
0%
6800
98%
7
Matt Kuchar
1%
73

89
1%
0%
7200
99%
-18
Adam Scott
1%
81

102
1%
0%
8000
99%
-21
Billy Horschel
1%
88

417
0%
-1%
8700
100%
-79
Jimmy Walker
1%
116

60
2%
1%
11500
98%
94
SiWoo Kim
1%
176

1061
0%
0%
17500
100%
-83
Keegan Bradley
1%
186

289
0%
0%
18500
100%
-36
Bubba Watson
0%
201

413
0%
0%
20000
100%
-51
Justin Rose
0%
218

363
0%
0%
21700
100%
-40
Rory Sabbatini
0%
297

437
0%
0%
29600
100%
-32
Brooks Koepka
0%
297

104
1%
1%
29600
99%
187
Zach Johnson
0%
297

283
0%
0%
29600
100%
5
Patrick Reed
0%
333

187
1%
0%
33200
99%
78
Ian Poulter
0%
353

221
0%
0%
35200
100%
60
Tommy Fleetwood
0%
392

323
0%
0%
39100
100%
21
Branden Grace
0%
401

903
0%
0%
40000
100%
-56
Lucas Glover
0%
401

1127
0%
0%
40000
100%
-64
C.T. Pan
0%
401

1061
0%
0%
40000
100%
-62
Brice Garnett
0%
451

1252
0%
0%
45000
100%
-64
Adam Hadwin
0%
451

287
0%
0%
45000
100%
57
Emiliano Grillo
0%
490

823
0%
0%
48900
100%
-40
Justin Thomas
0%
501

390
0%
0%
50000
100%
29
Jordan Spieth
0%
501

540
0%
0%
50000
100%
-7
Beau Hossler
0%
539

350
0%
0%
53800
100%
54
Ollie Schniederjans
0%
588

470
0%
0%
58700
100%
25
Jhonattan Vegas
0%
588

354
0%
0%
58700
100%
66
Harold Varner III
0%
608

609
0%
0%
60700
100%
0
Kevin Na
0%
751

1352
0%
0%
75000
100%
-44
Ted Potter-Jr
0%
751

5090
0%
0%
75000
100%
-85
Tom Hoge
0%
751

2179
0%
0%
75000
100%
-66
Bud Cauley
0%
751

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
75000
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Tony Finau
0%
784

900
0%
0%
78300
100%
-13
Grayson Murray
0%
833

562
0%
0%
83200
100%
48
Tiger Woods
0%
980

103127
0%
0%
97900
100%
-99
Marc Leishman
0%
980

834
0%
0%
97900
100%
17
Chris Kirk
0%
980

1789
0%
0%
97900
100%
-45
Byeong Hun An
0%
980

2216
0%
0%
97900
100%
-56
Ryan Moore
0%
980

2851
0%
0%
97900
100%
-66
Jason Dufner
0%
980

784
0%
0%
97900
100%
25
Brendan Steele
0%
980

841
0%
0%
97900
100%
17
Cody Gribble
0%
980

6138
0%
0%
97900
100%
-84
Andrew Landry
0%
1001

8261
0%
0%
100000
100%
-88
Nick Watney
0%
1001

3816
0%
0%
100000
100%
-74
Rafael Cabrera Bello
0%
1001

12136
0%
0%
100000
100%
-92
Ross Fisher
0%
1001

4757
0%
0%
100000
100%
-79
Martin Laird
0%
1001

17109
0%
0%
100000
100%
-94
Matthew Fitzpatrick
0%
1001

3139
0%
0%
100000
100%
-68
Scott Brown
0%
1001

5138
0%
0%
100000
100%
-81
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
0%
1001

15625
0%
0%
100000
100%
-94
Nick Taylor
0%
1001

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
100000
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Kevin Tway
0%
1001

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
100000
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Daniel Berger
0%
1001

1541
0%
0%
100000
100%
-35
Chez Reavie
0%
1001

1680
0%
0%
100000
100%
-40
Jason Kokrak
0%
1001

2045
0%
0%
100000
100%
-51
Austin Cook
0%
1001

11620
0%
0%
100000
100%
-91
Richy Werenski
0%
1001

44197
0%
0%
100000
100%
-98
Brian Gay
0%
1001

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
100000
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Chris Stroud
0%
1001

4849
0%
0%
100000
100%
-79
Ryan Blaum
0%
1001

58930
0%
0%
100000
100%
-98
J.J. Henry
0%
1001

#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
100000
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
Mackenzie Hughes
0%
1001

40179
0%
0%
100000
100%
-98
Tyrone Van Aswegen
0%
1001

17679
0%
0%
100000
100%
-94
Shane Lowry
0%
1001

8709
0%
0%
100000
100%
-89
Jamie Lovemark
0%
1001

4978
0%
0%
100000
100%
-80
Brandon Harkins
0%
1001

13393
0%
0%
100000
100%
-93
Ryan Palmer
0%
1001

2775
0%
0%
100000
100%
-64



The Rocco Forte Open (In running after round 2)



To Win


9.02 points Francesco Laporta @ 95 (-9.02)

The Players Championship



To Win


2.00 points Jimmy Walker @ 260 (-2)
2.00 points Brooks Koepka @ 120 (-2)
2.00 points Pat Perez @ 230 (-2)

Top 5


3.74 points Alex Levy @ 46 (-3.74)
3.85 points Satoshi Kodaira @ 51 (-3.85)
10.78 points Jon Rahm @ 7 (-10.78)
3.42 points Webb Simpson @ 17 (-3.42)

Top 10


5.42 points Steve Stricker @ 17 (-5.42)
5.30 points Alex Levy @ 19 (-5.3)
5.65 points Pat Perez @ 13 (-5.65)
6.09 points Satoshi Kodaira @ 21 (-6.09)

Top 20


11.35 points Steve Stricker @ 7.5 (-11.35)
10.84 points Alex Levy @ 8.5 (-10.84)
11.16 points Ross Fisher @ 10 (-11.16)
10.52 points Satoshi Kodaira @ 9 (-10.52)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

115.04 points Mickelson to beat Reed @ 1.91 (-115.04)
121.21 points Spieth to beat Thomas @ 1.80 (-121.21)


The Rocco Forte Open


To Win


2.00 points Anthony Micheal @ 440 (-2)
2.30 points Chris Doak @ 1001 (-2.3)
2.00 points Nicolai Von Dellingshansen @ 200 (-2)
2.00 points Jazz Janewattanond @ 120 (-2)

Top 5


11.56 points Nicolai Von Dellingshansen @ 29 (-11.56)
7.29 points Jazz Janewattanond @ 19 (-7.29)
6.67 points Matt Millar @ 19 (-6.67)
7.65 points Henric Struhead @ 29 (-7.65)


Top 10


17.41 points Nicolai Von Dellingshansen @ 10 (-17.41)
13.54 points Jazz Janewattanond @ 11 (-13.54)
9.90 points Henric Struhead @ 14 (-9.90)
11.77 points Matt Millar @ 10 (-11.77)


Top 20


28.24 points Nicolai Von Dellingshansen @ 6.5 (-28.24)
9.90 points Henric Struhead @ 7 (-9.9)
21.45 points Jazz Janewattanond @ 5.5 (-21.45)
19.86 points Matt Millar @ 5 (-19.86)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

no bets




2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 818.61 points


This week's P&L = -114.28
This week’s investment = 778.14 points


This week's Outright P&L = -267.65
This weeks's Outright Investment = 267.65 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +153.37
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 510.49 points



2018 Total P&L = -181.32

2018 Total Investment = 12693.15 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = +346.27
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 5676.97 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -527.59
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 7180.86 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

Comments