UA-33754892-1 Archives for 06 March 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Valspar Championship and True Thailand Classic

Valspar Championship - Outright
2 points each way Danny Willett @ 20/1 (-4)
1 point each way Sung Kang @ 100/1 (-2)

Valspar Championship - 72 Hole Matches
8 points Danny Willett @ Evs to beat Louis Oosthuizen (-8)

Valspar Championship - Day 1 Three Balls
2 points Danny Willett @ Evs to beat Cink and Donald (+2)
(I also like Willett to beat Grace in the round 1 18 hole match up with BET365 but think 8/11 is too short)

Valspar Championship - Day 2 Three balls
2 points Danny Willett @ Evs to beat Cink and Donald (-2)

Valspar Championship - Day 3 Two Balls
2 points Greg Yates @ 13/8 to beat John Huh (-2)
2 points Danny Willett @ 19/20 to beat Kevin Na (+1.9)
2 points Henrik Stenson @ 8/13 to beat Seung-Yul Noh (+1.23)
2 points Sung Kang @ 4/6 to beat Ken Duke (+1.23)

Valspar Championship - Day 4 Two Balls
2 points Patton Kizzire @ 8/11 to beat Justin Hicks @ 8/11 (+1.46)
2 points Brandon Grace @ 8/11 to beat George McNeill (-2)
3 points Danny Willett @ 7/10 to beat Daniel Summerhays (-3)

2 points Sung Kang @ 5/6 to beat Jerry Kelly @ 5/6 (+1.67)

Valspar Championship - Day 4 Matches
2 points Danny Willett @ 8/11 to beat Brandon Grace (+1.46)
2 points Sung Kang @ 8/11 to beat Jamie Lovemark (+1.46)

True Thailand Classic - Outright

0.5 points each way Phachara Khongwatmai @ 200/1 (-1)
1 point each way Soomin Lee @ 50/1 (-2)
1 point each way Jason Scrivener @ 45/1 (-2)
0.5 points each way Masahiro Kawamura @ 100/1 (-1)

True Thailand Classic - Day 1 Three Balls
3 points Peter Uihlein @ 5/4 to beat Hend and Brazel (+3.75)

True Thailand Championship - Day 2 Threeballs
2 points Peter Uihlein @ 11/10 to beat Hend and Brazel (-2)
2 points Thongchai Jaidee @ Evs to beat Jimenez and Pieters (-2)

True Thailand Championship - Day 2 Matches
2 points Mashiro Kawamura @ 10/11 to beat Siem (-2)

True Thailand - Day 3 Two Balls
I like Thomas Pieters to beat Madsen and Campillo to beat Lagergren but 4/7 and 8/11 are too short.
No Bets

True Thailand Classic - Day 4 Two Balls
2 points Jeunghun Wang @ 8/11 to beat Paul Peterson (-2)
2 points Lucas Bjerregaard @ 6/10 to beat Kalem Richardson (+1.2)
4 points Johan Carlsson @ 6/10 to beat Jeev Milkha Singh (-4)
2 points Joost Luiten @ 8/11 to beat Marc Warren (+1.46)
2 points Thongchai Jaidee @ 8/11 to beat Rikard Karlberg (+1.46)

True Thailand Classic - Day 4 Matches
3 points Panuphol Pittayarat @ 4/5 to beat Jeev Milkha Singh (-3)

This week's P&L = -23.72

This week’s investment = 69

This week's Outright P&L = -12
This weeks's Outright Investment = 12

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -11.72

This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 57

Valspar Championship

The Valspar at Innisbrook this year looks a difficult puzzle to solve. There are some clues we can use, but in general there is an awful lot up in the air. There are two guides to help us for the physical requirements. Firstly, short hitters are not excluded here and secondly, good putters tend to prevail. When Senden won here for us in 2014 he lead the putting stats for the week, when Spieth won last year he lead strokes gained putting as well as the fewest putts categories. In fact, the top four in strokes gained putting last year placed in the top 6 of the final leaderboard. The problem is they have relaid all the greens at Copperhead and changed the type of grass since last year!

Still, I think we should use this putting power stat to help us, especially as it leads us nicely to our first pick,
Danny Willett. He debuts here and he is a bet at 20/1. The relaid greens means his lack of course experience becomes slightly less relevant and the fact he ranked first in strokes gained putting last week at Doral is a reassuring bonus. He has been in great form, 8 top 5s worldwide in the last 10 months, including two wins. He now ranks 11th in the world after finishing 3rd in the WGC last week. Spieth and Stenson are going to be hard to beat but he has the confidence and the game to do it this week.

I also think
Sung Kang is a fair bet at 100/1. In his last 3 starts he's finished 17th at the AT&T after being up amongst the lead all week after almost shooting 59, 8th at the Northern Trust and 10th at the Honda. Statistically he needs to step up to get involved here as there is plenty of class ahead of him in the betting, but he is in good form and overpriced. 9/2 for a top 20 looks decent too.

My top 10 players in order are
Willett, Stenson, Kang, Spieth, Kuchar, Thomas, Streelman, English, Donald and Ryan Palmer.

True Thailand Classic

Not too much to get excited about here. One year's course form to go on from this event and some bits and bobs elsewhere, mainly from the Asian Tour to try and read some form.
Andrew Dodt beat Jaidee and Hend here last year.

I'm going to take a couple of chances. Firstly,
Phachara Khongwatmai. He finished 6th in a very strong Thailand Golf Championship. In horse racing one would say the form of that has worked out very well and a repeat of that performance would put him very close here. We do not have much to judge him on outside of that but 200/1 gives us a chance to support him with very low downside.

Soomin Lee is worth backing again, he very nearly won for us, and should have won, in Malaysia. He finished 3rd in Hong Kong and has had solid weeks in Perth and Thailand in-between. 50/1 is fair.

Jason Scrivener has been playing very solid golf. 3rd in Hong Kong, 12th in SA Open and 3rd in Perth last time out. He is 45/1 and should give us a good run at the price.

Masahiro Kawamura - 11th Hong Kong, 44th Thailand, 9th Malaysia and 15th in Perth. He appears in decent order and can go well at 100/1. He finished 69th last year but seems a steadier player now. Won Panasonic Open in 2013 and finished 5th in Mauritius last year.

2016 Total P&L = -60.18 points

2016 Total Investment = 401.5 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L = -33.45 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 76.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L = -26.73 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 325 points