UA-33754892-1 Archives for 06 January 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Sony Open

Sony Open

Tough week to open up with last week. We showed profit, which is the positive, but Casey disappointed. He threatened to get involved even after a slow start. He fired an impressive third round, but never putted well enough to get in the mix. Our in running plays looked threatening but Leishman blew hot and cold, the hot being rather impressive, but not good enough to compensate for the cold. When scoring goes low you can't afford flat spots.

Our other in running play, Rory Mcilroy was really disappointing. His poor run of Sunday performances continued. He claimed after round 3 that he has learnt his lesson of trying too hard to put pressure on the leaders during the final rounds and trying to be perfect. He stated his plan was to just try and limit mistakes and be bogey free. This sounds like someone low on confidence and pretty lost, or running out of ideas on how to get it done. A lack of belief and trust in his own ability. This showed again in his performance.

For me there is little doubt in his ability, I have previously voiced my concerns about his poor short game and putting resulting in rounds that take him out of contention when not playing well tee to green, but now one has to question his nerve. The Masters disappointment last year and The Ryder Cup singles were poor but could be forgiven, however he does it in lesser events too. For me he is going into the bucket with Westwood and Rose. Players that can only win when miles ahead or coming from behind and surprising themselves when they cross the finish line. When they are up with the pace they find little and rarely get it done. Let's call this bucket the 'back to lay bucket'.

Anyway, on to this week. Sony used to be an event exclusively won by experienced veterans who were ball strikers and competent in the wind. This has changed as golf continues to evolve. There is still only two debutant winners, Gay Brewer in the first edition (1965) and Russell Henley (2013). Since Henley won things have changed. Straight hitters and ball strikers have played second fiddle to putters. The scoring goes lights out. Thomas in 2017 posted 27 under par 253, the lowest 4 round total in Tour history. Also notable is the fact that 14 winners of the Sony played the week before in Maui at the Tournament of Champions. There have only been 20 editions of that very limited field event so that is a notable stat.

Last year Kizzire won in a playoff on 17 under. 56th in fairways, 23rd in greens but 3rd in strokes gained putting. He was 61 from 65 inside 10ft, 20 for 24 from 3 ft to 10 ft. He won it with the putter. So things have indeed changed.

My two picks for the win market are interesting on this basis. Spieth has struggled with the putter for the last year or so and for Casey, it has always been his achilles heel. Still they offer value and I like their chances.

Spieth had a winless, frustrating and disappointing year in 2018. He has huge pride, drive and dedication. Expect him to have done some serious grinding and be more than ready to come here and prove a point. If he putts good he could run away with this. He still hits it well and can handle the wind, if it does blow, which isn't in the forecast. He finished 3rd here in 2017. 18/1 is there, I would be no bigger than 14/1.

Casey putted poorly last week but was pretty good tee to green. 30th in 2015 and a missed cut in 2017 don't flatter his chances. He fits the old profile of a winner here well, a veteran ball striker who can handle wind but we will need to see him make some putts, especially the short ones. He will have knocked the rust off last week and is too big not to back here. I would be 20/1 and 33/1 is available.

Outside of these two I am looking to support Steve Stricker and Shugo Imahira. If it is indeed a putters event then you would always want Stricker on your side, even if he is in his 50s now. There is value in his price. I also think Shugo Imahira is well worth having onside. He has been in great form of late. Top 15s in his last 8 starts including a win in the Bridgestone Open in Japan, which boasts a decent line up. This is a step up of course, but he has been more active than most lately, will enjoy the grain in the greens and is clearly playing well.

To Win

0.25 units Paul Casey @ 33/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Jordan Spieth @ 18/1 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.75 units Paul Casey @ 15/2 (-0.75)
0.5 units Steve Stricker @ 25/1 (-0.5)

Top 10

1.5 units Paul Casey @ 3/1 (-1.5)

1 unit Steve Stricker @ 11/1 (-1)
0.75 units Shugo Imahira @ 18/1 (-0.75)

Top 20

2.5 units Paul Casey @ 6/4 (-2.5)
2 units Steve Stricker @ 5/1 (-2)
1.5 units Shugo Imahira @ 15/2 (-1.5)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

2.5 units Stanley to beat Ancer @ 5/6 (+2.08)
2.5 units Reed to beat Champ @ 5/6 (+2.08)
2.5 units Thomas to beat Dechambeau @ 8/13 (-2.5)
2 units Leishman to beat Woodland @ 11/10 (+2.2)

This week's P&L = -7.14
This week’s investment = 20.5 units

This week's Outright P&L = -11 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 11 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +3.86
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 9.5 units

2019 Total P&L = -6.01 units

2019 Total Investment = 31.25 unites

2019 Outright Bets P&L = -13.15 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 16.75 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +7.14 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 16.5 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks as 0.25 to 2.5 units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • 2.5 units - 2.5% of bankroll