UA-33754892-1 Archives for 06 January 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Sony Open and Volvo Golf Champions

Just really the picks this week as not much time between the Tuesday finishing Hyundai and the Thursday starting Sony Open for a full write up. Dustin Johnson was impressive last week and as long as he can stay on the rails he should have a huge year. Our guys did ok, Pettersson was the best finishing 8th, two shots out of the places. Fortunately we had Dustin on side against Watney. That won us 4 points to offset the 7 we lost on the outrights. 2013 running total - 3 points.

The Sony is a tricky event as the field is made up of a lot of a lot of first time outers. But we are ideally looking for a precision, accuracy player.
Tim Clarke fits the bill and has great course form but seems short at 25/1 considering his injury and health problems of last year. He has not been in contention for a while and it is a big ask for him to win this. Dustin Johnson has claims after his performance last week and when on, as he is, is capable of winning anywhere. However this is far from ideal unlike last week and 10/1 is tight enough. Kuchar was in and out most of last week but finished like a train playing the last 10 in -6. He is a big player here and it sets up perfectly for him. He finished 5th on his last visit in 2011 and can handle the wind which is forecast. 16/1 is not big, but it is about right.

Carl Pettersson went well last week and finished 2nd here last year. There is no reason for him not to contend again but 20/1 is short enough. Charles Howell III is a real horse for this course. He has 6 top 5’s in 11 starts including a tie for 2nd last year. Despite his unreal course form 22/1 is short in this field. I also would think Keegan Bradley will be in the mix. He hits it straight enough and played well last week but this may test his patience and may may not suit his aggressive style. Therefore one would have to be brave to trust him at 16/1.

At bigger prices
Ryan Moore, Jonas Blixt, John Senden and John Huh appeal. Moore is a straight hitter and ticks all the boxes apart from one. On a course where players hit the greens in regulation only 63% of the time you need to be able to scramble and he ranks outside the top 100 in this category so is passed over at 40/1. Blixt putts so well. At 40/1 he could be a bet but when he misses he misses big and will get punished for that around here. Senden’s game is a great fit for Waialae Country Club but did not show enough in Australia over the winter to suggest he should be backed here. 50/1 in this line up is big but not big enough for me. John Huh looks big at 50/1. He played solid last week in windy conditions on a course that was far from ideal making only 5 bogies and a double in 54 holes. Encouragingly it was his putter that was really working. He was 11th last year in driving accuracy and will love the fit of this course. He posted a 65 in the 2nd round last year on his PGA Tour debut finishing 53rd. I like him this week.

In South Africa it appears to be about one player. If
Louis Oosthuizen is healthy and plays well he should win. 5/1 is fairly short though. He may well have taken a little more time off than most as he was suffering with illness and an eye infection towards the end of a hectic finish to 2012, but his form was fantastic. Durban Country Club is a great course. I played the SA Open there and would rate it in my top 10. It is not the longest but after recent heavy rain will play long enough. The Italian pair of Mollinari and Manassero will like the look of this venue but at 16/1 and 20/1 do not represent much value. Jaidee could go well at 50/1 in the humid Durban conditions and I will back him alongside the inconsistent but overpriced Jbe Kruger at 90/1.

Sony Open

1 pt each way John Huh @ 50/1

Volvo Golf Champions

1 pt each way Thongchai Jaidee @ 50/1
0.5 pts each way Jbe Kruger @ 90/1

2013 running total = -3 pts. This week’s investment 5 points. This weeks P&L = +9.5 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.