UA-33754892-1 Archives for 05 October 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

2015 US Money List

The new season starts this week on the PGA Tour so I had a look at the 2015 US Money List market and there was only one price that really stood out. I did enquire about one unquoted player, Brooks Koepka, who I think could have huge season, but was a little disappointed in the 150/1 quoted.

The guy I do like is Hideki Matsuyama at 80/1. His 2014 season was hampered continually by a bad wrist. He is fully fit again now by all accounts and he will play a full schedule in The States. We have seen what he is capable of in big events. Notably the Majors in 2013 and his win in The Memorial in 2014. He thrives under pressure and is a very complete player.

In 2014 he played through injury and still managed to play 24 times (only once in Japan reassuringly), fully fit he will play a very full schedule, including all the big events. Also, despite his injury, he made it to East Lake for the Tour Championship (top 30 players) in his first attempt. That’s a rare and impressive accomplishment. He will play all the big events and has the potential and mental fortitude to take the Tour by the scruff of the neck this year. Especially as a number of the big name players play such limited schedules and some have injury concerns.

It may still be worth having a small investment on Brooks Koepka @ 150/1 in his rookie season. He has proven himself on the big stage, like this years US Open, and does not fear success. He has so much ability and although it would not come as a surprise to many, I can see him progressing strongly again, remaining hungry and having a huge year. Although the price is not fantastic we don’t have too many options of how to back him longterm

US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2014 running total =  -35.77 points.

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

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Frys.com Open and Portugal Masters

Last week was remarkable for two reasons. Firstly our pick Richie Ramsay boggied two of the last three to lose by one. Secondly it was of course, the remarkable story of Oliver Wilson’s ‘out of nowhere’ victory. Now we know he has game, anyone who has 9 second place finishes on the European Tour, played in 10+ Majors and a Ryder Cup must have some serious quality in there, but to put it into context, and I hope this doesn’t sound too critical, he is often referred to as the worst good player out there. Physically he looks so average in terms of the way he hits it but this must only go to credit his mental game and self belief even more. He is like Poulter in a way, a very average golfer who counters that weakness with absolute belief in what he is capable of achieving. That’s why Wilson can go two years, mainly on the Challenge Tour, without a top 25, and then pull off a huge performance like last week. Another characteristic he shares with Poulter, who can’t compete in 95% of the events he plays, but nobody ever judges him on those performances, is overachieving. Overachieving is a great quality to posses.

I did actually have a look at Wilson last week. He finished 2nd there in 2009 and, for him, has maintained decent form at the Dunhill Links during a tough period of his career. He had also played well the previous week on the Challenge Tour where he had shot a second round 63 to be in second place before a pair of 76s on the weekend saw him slip down to 47th. At 300/1+ he was worth consideration.

Anyway, we made 6.13 points on the week to move back to -35.77 points for the year. I know many of you traded Ramsay as short as 1.5 so may have done a little better than that. I didn’t, so I continue my pattern of underachieving, which is not a good quality!

Anyway, this week, we have two decent tournaments to look at. The Frys.com Open and Portugal Masters.

The Frys.com is the first event of the PGA Tour season, strangely. I’m still not used to or entirely convinced by this wrap around season thing. But the Frys has attracted a much stronger field than usual and I wonder how much of this has to do with the fact that Johnny Miller is co-owner of the new venue they will be using.

Silverado Resort and Spa is in Napa, California. They will be using the North course which Miller helped redesign in 2011. His redesign appears to be more an attempt to make it playable for the average player rather than building a brutal test for a PGA Tour event. He removed bunkers, removed strong, tangly grasses and replaced with lighter, more playable grasses (kikuyu replaced with rye and bluegrass) and took some overly severe slopes out of the greens so they could putt at a faster speed. From what I have heard, the rough is not up and the 7203 yard course is actually playing pretty long as the air is heavy. To me it sounds like a long hitters dream and the fact that there is no past knowledge advantage to the PGA Tour regulars one would not be overly zealous in writing off the Web.com graduates who are carrying strong recent form and have played more golf than some PGA Tour members, who may have tried to have a short break.

Kuchar at 14/1 has obvious appeal and although this may not be the most suitable test for him, we know he can compete on any course at anytime. He is a worthy joint favourite as is Jimmy Walker who couldn’t wish for a better venue to defend his maiden victory. Between these two there were 21 top 10s last season. They are good solid performers and Walker should be buoyant off the back of a strong Ryder Cup showing. At least one of them should go close but at 14/1 you would want to be sure which one.

I like Kevin Chappell. He has been in solid but unspectacular form. He has made his last 9 cuts of which four have resulted in top 20s but nothing better than a 16th. The one time he got into contention, back in August, he had a two shot lead through 5 holes of the second round and he finished 30th. And yes, we did back him that week! I am really tempted by him this week, as soon as the putter clicks he could be exceptional but I would want a little more than the 45/1 on offer.

Let me clarify a little. Between Chappell and the two favourites there are some very lively contenders. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Delaet at 25/1 or Koepka at 28/1 - 33/1. Koepka especially. He should have won this last year when receiving an invite from the sponsors after an epic year on the Challenge Tour. That was at CordeValle but this looks to suit even more. He is long (ranks 1 in driving distance in Europe) and a birdie machine. Add to that he is in superb form and will come into this with even more belief than last year. He has a PGA Tour card already for this season and that would have been the extra pressure he could have done without last year, when he was playing for that too. His last 5 starts he has finished 15-38-3-11-9. Not much not to like.

Charles Howell III plays an awful lot of golf tournaments year after year. The strange thing about this approach is he tends to go better fresh, but rarely gives himself that opportunity. His weakness is accuracy with the driver. He will not be punished so much for this here and at 66/1 is worth having onside.

Out of the web.com players I like the chances of Justin Thomas (80/1), Jason Gore (100/1), Blayne Barber (150/1), Adam Hadwin (80/1) and Tony Finau (150/1).

Now, Finau is a no brainer for a bet. He is longer than anyone in this field, and probably anyone in California too! He has been around for years and they attempted to fast track him through the levels maybe 5-7 years ago. It was too soon but he is a better player for it. He has earned his way onto the PGA Tour and that can do the world for a talented players psyche, he knows he belongs and deserves to be there. Form of win-11-46-19-46-6-14 suggests another strong showing here would not be a huge surprise.

I am going to take two of the other four. Gore and Barber. Gore had been struggling for years but came back to life last year. He lead scoring on the web.com and will want to continue his hot form on the big stage. 20-6-80-9-2-41-14-3. He may not be the most talented of the graduates but when you add the combination of experience then he may be the strongest.

Blayne Barber may be best known, so far, for disqualifying himself from the 2012 Q School but he earned his right to play this week by finishing 16th on the web.com with the aid of a win in the South Georgia Classic. 25-5-80-5-75-52-6-37 in his last 8 starts. But here I am going to back track, I can’t get away from Justin Thomas and feel I may be chasing Barber because the price looks so much more appealing and balances the staking plan better. Justin Thomas is longer and better and still a good price at 80/1. He is the guy to back. Thomas getting in the mix is just far more likely and he is a better bet because of that.

In Portugal they once again play the Victoria Golf Course in the Algarve. I have played this course and always thought it would suit a long bomber who can occasionally deal with a windy day. There are very few intimidating shots and length, to me, appeared to be it’s only protection. However, when you look at the past winners few fit this profile. Form and desperation to retain playing privileges has to come into the equation too. Picking a player with good form is easier than trying to guess the player that is going to over perform and live to see another season Tour. If I was going to pick one who may come up with a big week when needed it may be Steve Webster. He was awful last week finishing 117th but was 12th on his previous start and has been plagued with short game problems. But, if you take out Lynn from last year, who was running hot at the time, ball strikers do well here and Webby is certainly a ball striker who also won here in 2007. Players like Ross Fisher and Francesco Molinari have very strong records here. Webby may well be worth a punt to turn things around, it wouldn’t be the first time he has got himself out of dodge and kept his card. He’s 150/1 with Stan James.

I am going to back Robert-Jan Derkson at 80/1. Since 2009 he has finished 12-17-44-16-8 here and has two top 12s in his last 3 starts. The weather should let him enjoy some awful colour combinations in horizontally stripped shirts, but he should get in the mix and in turn cement his place in top 60 in the Race to Dubai, currently 70th.

I like Mikko Ilonen for this too at 45/1 but that price seems a little short when you see he ranks 91st in greens and hasn’t been close to his best the last few weeks after becoming a father. He has ok course form 19-9-dnp-27-dnp and two top 11s in his last 5 starts but I would want a better price.

Hennie Otto has been in poor form since he won at the end of August but he has finished 27-26-37-6 here the last four years. He hits it solid and looks big at 100/1. We know with Hennie he could be anything and is always a risk to back. Emotion plays a big role in his golf game, but he should be worth chancing and having won fairly recently, and if he does click he will be confident in converting.

I am going to have a couple of cross doubles between these events on the players I really do fancy to go well but are too short to get involved with in singles. We can stake small, enjoy some excellent value and hope for the best! We are staking fairly high this week, but we have two good markets to invest in.


Frys.com Open

1.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 28/1
0.75 points each way Charles Howell III @ 66/1
0.75 points each way Justin Thomas @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Jason Gore @ 100/1
0.5 points each way Tony Finau @ 150/1

Portugal Masters

0.5 points each way Steve Webster @ 125/1
0.75 points each way Robert-Jan Derkson @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Hennie Otto @ 100/1

Specials

0.5 point each way double Francesco Molinari (25/1) and Jimmy Walker (14/1) @ 389/1
0.5 points each way double Francesco Molinari (25/1) and Matt Kuchar (14/1) @ 389/1
0.5 points each way double Francesco Molinari (25/1) and Brooks Koepka (28/1) @ 753/1

2014 running total =  -35.77 points. This week’s investment 14.5 points. This weeks P&L = -14.5 points


2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments