UA-33754892-1 Archives for 05 May 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Byron Nelson and British Masters

Byron Nelson - In running (After round 3)

Lay 2.75 units Sung Kang @ 4/6 (-1.83)

0.75 units Scott Piercy @ 14/1 (-0.75)




British Masters - In running (After round 3)

0.75 units Marcus Kinhult @ 4.5 (+2.63)


British Masters - In running (After round 2)

0.5 units Niklas Lemke @ 25/1 (-0.5)



Byron Nelson - In running (After round 1)

0.75 units Brooks Koepka @ 9/2 (-0.75)
0.25 units Justin Harding @ 45/1 (-0.25)



British Masters - In running (After round 1)

0.25 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 8/1 (-0.25)



Byron Nelson

Trinity Forest is wide open. It has massive greens, massive fairways, no trees, no water and no rough. The greens have plenty of undulations, but if the wind does not blow expect to see some brilliantly low numbers on this 7371 yard, par 71, which plays a lot shorter.

It is odds on to be a shoot out, and a confidence booster for some heading into next week's USPGA Championship. In general, courses tend to offer much more width in The States, but last year the field were hitting almost 80% of fairways, giving you an idea of how lenient Trinity is. They also hit almost 14 greens per round, the second highest all year last year. The winner, Aaron Wise, missed only 6 fairways and 6 greens all week.

One needs to look at guys that sometimes become unstuck by hitting it wide from the tee but otherwise keep things going. I can't believe Mickelson did not add this event to his schedule. Good putters should be rewarded, but lesser putters have putted well here. Last year, Matsuyama was 5th in strokes gained putting and ranked 2nd of putts made inside 10ft. Maybe the slope and slower speed are an equaliser to an extent.

Trinity is hosting for just the second time, so we are yet to see what the wind can do around here. That is its only protection.

I like Brooks Koepka, Marc Leishman, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed and Thorbjorn Olesen.

All these guys are great players and strong scorers but the occasional loose one from the tee costs them. I fancy they will all enjoy this opportunity to really express what they are capable of. Leishman finished 2nd here last year and is wise to have on board incase the wind blows. He thrives in the wind and has already posted 5 top 10s this year. He was 33/1 but has been backed into 25/1, this stops him from being a win bet unfortunately.



To Win

0.25 units Brooks Koepka @ 15/2 (-0.25)
0.25 units Thomas Pieters @ 66/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Patrick Reed @ 33/1 (-0.25)



Top 5

1 unit Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 10/1 (-1)
1 unit Patrick Reed @ 15/2 (-1)
0.75 units Thorbjorn Olesen @ 12/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Marc Leishman @ 7/1 (NR)
0.75 units Thomas Pieters @ 14/1 (-0.75)


Top 10

1.5 units Thorbjorn Olesen @ 13/2 (-1.5)
1.25 units Patrick Reed @ 4/1 (-1.25)
1.5 units Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 9/2 (-1.5)
1.25 units Thomas Pieters @ 7/1 (-1.25)
0.75 units Marc Leishman @ 11/4 (nr)


Top 20

2.75 units Thorbjorn Olesen @ 3/1 (-2.75)
2.75 units Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 9/4 (-2.75)
2 units Justin Harding @ 7/2 (+7)
2.5 units Patrick Reed @ 2/1 (-2.5)

First Round Leader

no bet


72 Hole Match Bet (Betfair Sportsbook, tie no bet)

no bets



British Masters

Not often one finds a par 72 under 7000 yards in professional golf, but that is the cool challenge that faces some of Europes best this week at Hillside. The rough is penal and the fairways firm. This will be a typical links test that will reward shot making, patience and precision. Length will mean little. I would love to see more events like this.

Fleetwood is the host and dominates the market at 8/1. I would make him 7/1, but as host with all the extra duties one is happy to avoid backing him. The hosts have traditionally gone badly in this event. It does suit Tommy and I would like to see him have a good week but I can't back him.

In fact there is few I want to back. The young, homegrown hopefuls are badly priced. Pepperell, Wallace and Hatton are 20/1, 25/1 and 20/1 respectively. I couldn't be involved at those prices. There's a bit of value in Westwood at 33/1 and Sterne at 66/1 goes well on links. I would be nearer 40/1 Sterne. I can't find one I particularly like at the prices.

Instead I am going to take a punt on Gaganjeet Bhullar. He has been hugely consistent this year and has a cracking record on short golf courses. He is worth chancing at nice prices to get involved this week.


To Win

no bet

Top 5

0.5 units Gaganjeet Bhullar @ 30/1 (-0.5)


Top 10

1 unit Gaganjeet Bhullar @ 16/1 (-1)


Top 20

1.5 units Gaganjeet Bhullar @ 7/1 (-1.5)


First Round Leader

no bet


72 Hole Match Bet (Skybet, tie no bet)

3 units Joost Luiten to beat Matt Wallace @ 5/6 (-3)



This week's P&L = -15.87
This week’s investment = 27.25 units


This week's Outright P&L = -13.75
This weeks's Outright Investment = 24.25 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -2.12
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 8.08 units



2019 Total P&L = +33.66 units

2019 Total Investment = 364.5 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +23.6 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 302 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +10.06 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 111.83 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.

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