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Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Players Championship Day 3

The Players Championship Day 3 Two Balls

4 pts Brendon De Jonge to bt Jeff Overton @ Evs (16.50 tee off) (-4pts)
3 pts Charles Howell III to bt Marc Leishman @ 11/10 ( 18.40 tee off) (-3 pts)


(Already Advised)

The Players Championship 2nd Round 3 Balls

2 pts Stadler 5/2 to beat Stroud and Lynn. (Ladbrokes, Boylesports) Tee off 14.11 GMT (+2.5 points)

4 x 0.5 pt trebles and a 0.5 pt accumulator (-2.5 pts)
Stadler @ 5/2 to beat Lynn and Stroud (Tee off 14.11)
Walker @ 5/4 to beat Castro and Bohn (Tee off 17.46)
Weekly @ 5/4 to beat Romero and Lingmerth (Tee off 19.10)
M. Jones @ 13/8 to beat Davis and N. Thompson (Tee off 19.21)

The Players Championship 72 Hole Matchbets


2.5 pts Russell Henley to beat Zach Johnson @ 6/5 (Coral) (-2.5pts)
2 pts Steve Stricker to beat Jim Furyk @ 21/20 (Will Hill and Stan James) (+2.1pts)


The Players Championship
2 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 66/1 (-4 pts)
2 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 50/1 (-4 pts)
1 pt each way Jimmy Walker @ 125/1 (-2 pts)
1 pt each way Billy Horschel @ 50/1 (-2pts)


2013 running total = -128.95 pts. This week’s investment 28 points. This weeks P&L = -17.4 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments

The Players Championship 2nd Round 3 Balls

The Players Championship 2nd Round 3 Balls

2 pts Stadler 5/2 to beat Stroud and Lynn. (Ladbrokes, Boylesports) Tee off 14.11 GMT

4 x 0.5 pt trebles and a 0.5 pt accumulator
Stadler @ 5/2 to beat Lynn and Stroud (Tee off 14.11)
Walker @ 5/4 to beat Castro and Bohn (Tee off 17.46)
Weekly @ 5/4 to beat Romero and Lingmerth (Tee off 19.10)
M. Jones @ 13/8 to beat Davis and N. Thompson (Tee off 19.21)


(Already advised)
The Players Championship 72 Hole Matchbets


2.5 pts Russell Henley to beat Zach Johnson @ 6/5 (Coral)
2 pts Steve Stricker to beat Jim Furyk @ 21/20 (Will Hill and Stan James)


The Players Championship
2 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 66/1
2 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 50/1
1 pt each way Jimmy Walker @ 125/1
1 pt each way Billy Horschel @ 50/1


2013 running total = -111.55 pts. This week’s investment 21 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments

The Players Championship 72 Hole Matches

The Players Championship 72 Hole Matchbets

2.5 pts Russell Henley to beat Zach Johnson @ 6/5 (Coral)
2 pts Steve Stricker to beat Jim Furyk @ 21/20 (Will Hill and Stan James)


(Already advised)

The Players Championship
2 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 66/1
2 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 50/1
1 pt each way Jimmy Walker @ 125/1
1 pt each way Billy Horschel @ 50/1


2013 running total = -111.55 pts. This week’s investment 16.5 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments

The Players Championship

We broke the 100 point barrier last week. We stand -111.55 points down for the year. Work to do.

The Players Championship at Sawgrass is one of my favourite events and this year will be the first in three I have not been there to watch the final day and play the following week. A little gutted. Especially as the second event of the trip would have been Pebble Beach. Anyway, lets get to it.

Plodders do well at Sawgrass. A good all round, steady player. It really is a brilliant golf course and way more than just one hole with an island green. It helps if you can move it both ways but it is not essential if you can hit it pretty neutral. It is a very fair test.

This year it has been very wet in the build up. So much so that no spectators were allowed in today to watch. On the face of it this should suit the longer guys but it also means the normally rock hard greens should be a little softer which will aid the shorter hitters, especially with the rough lusher than usual . They have sub-air under every green so they should still be able to dry them out a fair bit so lets not read into this too much.

Past Champions: Kuchar, Choi, Clark, Stenson, Garcia, Mickelson, Ames, Funk, Scott, Love. All great iron players and apart from Mickelson, all accurate drivers. Last year the top finishers ranked highly in birdies, greens in regulation and putting. The top 5 in driving distance were Quiros (finished 40th), Woods (40th), Watney (56th), Scott (15th), Immelman (56th) with an average of 42nd. Top 5 in driving accuracy Toms (10th), Slocum (64th), Kaymer (15th), Haas (25th), Clark (25th) with an average of 28th. Top 5 greens in regulation Fowler (2nd), Z. Johnson (2nd), Kuchar (1st), Toms (10th), Blanks (40th) with an average of 11th. Top 5 putters Na (7th), Laird (2nd), Curtis (2nd), Kang (61st), Kuchar (1st) with an average of 14th. So we can see where our prioritise need to be. Greens in regulation and putting dominated all other stats.

My shortlist: I like Woods but 8/1 is short enough on a course he has a poor record at. Rose I would love to bet but 28/1 about a guy who ranks 147th in putting is hard to justify. Mcilroy at 16/1 is not a bet. It is not a great course for someone who hits a big hook and can struggle to get it pin high. Distance control is important around here. I like Henley and 150/1 is big but a Players Champion will usually have a little more experience than he has and his rank of 98th in greens in regulation is off-putting. Garcia has great course form and recent form. 33/1 is tempting on a course that fits well. He is a past champion and ranks 10th in putting but a lowly 50th in greens in regulation. The electric atmosphere should capture his attention and keep him interested but I just don’t fancy him this week. Chris Kirk has some great scoring stats and around the green is as good as anyone. He is due another big week soon and 125/1 is a big price but a rank of 129th in driving accuracy and 115th in greens in regulation is going to make things difficult around here.

There are others that were not on the shortlist but stand out for their course form. Sawgrass is a bit of a ‘horses for courses’ venue. Scott Hoch used to love this event back in the day. It is also worth noting that Furyk, Singh and Funk are residents at Sawgrass. Of the course form players Donald, Stenson, Garcia, Bo Van Pelt, David Toms and Ben Crane are worth noting. Stenson is the number one ball striker on the PGA Tour this year. He ranks a very impressive 45th in driving distance, 3rd in driving accuracy and 1st in greens. 84th in birdies, 99th in putting and 90th in scrambling are the negatives. Bo Van Pelt is slowly finding his stride this year but his putter is still ice cold, ranking 146th in that category. That combined with 122nd in scoring makes him very hard to back. The bad greens probably did him a favour last week and although the concept and philosophy of ‘horses for courses’ suggests form and stats don’t matter, the venue will bring the best out of them again and again, I just don’t see it. Crane has not shown enough to really get excited about. Donald is interesting as I think he is getting closer every time he plays but he is a player who notched up so many top 10’s over a two year period he would look like a horse for nearly every course. 160th in greens in regulation and a 20/1 price makes him easy to cross out. Finally Toms. He loves it here but his game has deserted him and a tricky combination of appalling putting and not being able to hit it will make this a tough test for him!

My first bet this week is Steve Stricker. His limited schedule is working out ok for him and although his form at Sawgrass is not great I do like him. A 12th place in 2011 is the best he has on his CV here so far. However, from what he has played this season he has been impressive. Two big numbers late in the 2nd and 3rd rounds at Augusta cost him a chance. Augusta form holds up well here. A lot of guys who have gone close a few weeks before at Augusta do well. Like Kuchar last year, was right in the mix at Augusta before winning here. 66/1 is a big price for someone who ranks 14th in driving accuracy, 2nd in greens in regulation, 10th in birdies and 12th in scoring. He is a bet.

Next is Snedeker. Augusta form, great stats and a huge price. He finished 12th here in 2007 and has only missed cuts to his name since then so its hard to shout about the course form. But none of these players bring the full package this week, not even Woods. 50/1 is too big to ignore. 10th in driving accuracy, 10th in greens in regulation, 22nd in putting, 3rd in scrambling, 2nd in birdies, 7th in scoring. If he re-finds the early season putting touch he can prove that price should be nearer 25/1.

Billy Horschel is going to go one of two ways now. He is either going to prove he is the real deal or he is going to drift away. Sometimes when you fight so hard to win you can become flat after when that goal is achieved. His stats suggest he is the real deal. 8th in total driving, 24th in greens, 14th in putting, 2nd in birdies, 11th in scoring. This should be a great fit for him too. 50/1 is fair and although my brain is screaming out “inexperienced, inexperienced” I am still going to put him in the staking plan.

Finally, Jimmy Walker. Not the perfect set up for him here but the weather and softer conditions will help. The main reason for backing him this week is 125/1 is huge, 150/1 in a place. He is a long hitter but not straight. However he still ranks 30th in greens in regulation. I understand he is far from a plodder but he ranks 12th in scoring and 7th in birdies. I think he is a nice compliment to the other three picks. He has firepower and can make birdies in bunches. Lets hope he does it this week.

Matchbets and specials to come on Wednesday.


The Players Championship
2 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 66/1
2 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 50/1
1 pt each way Jimmy Walker @ 125/1
1 pt each way Billy Horschel @ 50/1


2013 running total = -111.55 pts. This week’s investment 12 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.


Comments