UA-33754892-1 Archives for 05 June 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Italian Open and Fedex St Jude

Last week was yet another week of frustration. State side Bill Haas and Chris Couch had solid starts but got nothing good going over the weekend. Every time Webb Simpson got close enough to make it exciting he made a mistake. He ended up finishing 8th. A good week for him, an annoying week for us. In Wales Johan Edfors eagled the last to get a share of 5th. He promised much more throughout but I guess we should be grateful that we got a return. Edfors is one to keep an eye on over the next few weeks. He is very much a confidence player and when he gets on a roll he is impressive. He also has a cracking record in the UK so if the price is right we may get a few more runs out of him, especially with the new venue for the Scottish Open looking like it will suit. I very nearly left Wales alone but happily it saved us. We lost 0.87 points on the week. 2011 running total is +143.8 points or +£1438 to a £10 stake.

With the US Open next week this week’s tournaments are unsurprisingly weak. As always the week before a Major you get a few of the big names out for a run but many are still preparing for the following week. Their minds will often be elsewhere and they will be working on the shots they will need for a different course in different conditions. Sometimes it does work in their favour. Mickelson won at the Shell Houston Open despite saying he was not playing the course the way he should, that he probably should not be there and writing off any chance of winning. Kuchar went with an ultra defensive strategy last week, especially from the tee. He hit a lot of three woods as he will be doing at the US Open, he finished 2nd. Most notably Westwood won this event, the Fedex St Jude, the week before last years US Open. I have no interest in backing the favourites the week before a Major. Are they trying? Are they focused? Are you definitely going to get a run out of them? No.

A lot of the big names choose to prepare for the Majors by having a week away from tournament golf. Some will practice at the venue, others elsewhere. Whatever they think works best for them. This means the week before the Majors you are left with a field that lacks strength in depth. You end up with three categories of players. The favourites who will be at silly short prices and may not be trying. The tour players who may not have qualified for the following week and see this as a good opportunity to sneak a win but are again too short because of the third category. The third category are the capable but unpredictable. They make up the majority of the field and are all obviously good players but are either out of form or stepping up to make up the numbers. There will be some cracking value in this category but to pick one or two is impossible. I would find it hard to find one in this category nailed on to make the cut, let alone contend. Therefore I am going to have a quiet week before the US Open.

In the St. Jude I like Toms, Couch and Simpson. Simpson has just become a non runner and Toms is way too short to consider backing. So a small interest on Couch is the play for me. It is one of the hardest venues to hit greens in regulation, the stroke average of the field has always been over par and it is the third hardest par 70 on the PGA Tour. Couch almost got in the flow last week. He had five birdies in a row in his second round and hitting greens is not a problem for him. His big high fade has been working well this year and when his broom handle putter gets warm there are few better. 66/1 in this field is a fair price. Westwood, Zach Johnson and Toms would be the obvious contenders but I cannot be a backer at prices so short. Couch is my one lone pick.

Italy looks near on impossible. One guy who is playing well and looks a good price in a field that lacks quality in depth is the Scott, Scott Jamieson. He is class and has threatened to breakthrough and win recently. I played with him quiet a bit two years ago and I have played with no player on the mini tours who looked more complete. He swings it nice, great rhythm, great attitude and fearlessly confident. He had a good chance to win in Spain a few weeks ago and shot some nice numbers ruined by one bad in the PGA at Wentworth. He is up against a weaker field here. I think he will fancy it this week and 80/1 looks value.

All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -

Fedex St Jude Classic

1 pt each way Chris Couch @ 66/1

BMW Italian Open

1 pt each way Scott Jamieson @ 80/1

2011 running total +143.8 pts This weeks investment 4 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.