UA-33754892-1 Archives for 05 February 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Dubai Desert Classic and AT&T Pebble Beach

Golf in the desert everywhere and our returns have been barren. Our 2012 total stands at a thoroughly disappointing -61 points. A borderline disaster, but without sounding like too much of a golfer, you are only ever a week away from a big week.

So lets have a look at this week. Dubai first. This is a long course at 7300 yards but shorter, accurate hitters have an equally good record to the bombers. It can play very firm, and I expect it will after the heavy winds that have hit the area over the last week. It is a ball strikers course but is ultimately a good all round test. The past winners roster really is a who’s who of the golfing elite.

Mcilroy heads the market at 4/1. Fair enough, he is a worthy favourite and it would be a huge surprise if he is not in the mix come Sunday. This course suits his long and accurate driving and towering irons. He is a past winner. Ticks all the boxes but is short enough. Westwood is another who is very difficult to dismiss. He has a new putter in the bag the week, a Ping Anser 2. He got hammered by the draw last week but showed he is playing well. I would rate him alongside Rory as the most likely winner and at almost three times the price at 11/1 it makes it a fairly easy decision to be with him. Also Lee tends to play well at the end of a run of events and he has been in the desert for a month. Kaymer is a crazy price at 8/1. I have no idea why he is shorter than Westwood.

Looking elsewhere I think they have the Hansen and Hanson the wrong way round. I do rate Peter Hanson (20/1, 4th in the betting) but from a betting perspective Anders Hansen (28/1) is a much more consistent, reliable runner. The bookies really do rate Peter Hanson, always too short to back. Quiros is always worth noting in the desert but he has not shown too much so far and is always fighting an injured wrist.

The two I like at bigger prices are contrasting players. Jimenez and Seung-Yul Noh. Jimenez has solid record in Dubai and won in 2010. He was winless in 2011 and will be keen to get in the winners circle early in 2012. He has had a so so start this year with three cuts made but no low rounds. 50/1 about the Spaniard has enough appeal in it for me. Noh has only played in the States so far this year after clinching his card at the US Tour School. He has played nicely too. He will be back in a relative comfort zone this week and with a relaxed approach, feeling like a big fish with nothing to prove, can make 66/1 look generous. He is long, hits it high and this should suit. It is a concern that his best finish is 44th in two starts but he is a world class player at a good price.

Now to the States. Pebble Beach. The ultimate horses for courses venue. Dustin Johnson loves it here, well apart from one Sunday at the US Open! He is second in the betting behind Tiger Woods and at 22/1 is a consideration, especially when you see a scoring average of 69.71.

So I do like Dustin’s chances. I also like Mahan, Points, Moulder and Maggert. Woods is obviously the man to beat but it is hard to side with a player who, despite a great result in Abu Dhabi, is missing an awful lot of greens. His putter saved him but maybe that will not happen as often on the less than perfect poa greens here. Also the pro am format worries me with Woods. He has not played since 2002 despite being sponsored by the title sponsor. Very little interest in the 5/1 on offer. Obviously John Rhodes feels the same way going a stand out 11/2 at Skybet.

I will admit I only put Points in the short list to brag about picking the 80/1 winner last year! But in fairness he has a squeak here. He has two top tens this year and lead the field in putting here last year but 40/1 is way too short. Mahan has a huge chance here. I completely forgive his missed cut last week in the wind in Qatar. That is not his thing, but this is. Two weeks ago he posted a top ten at Torrey Pines, a solid sixth place. Last year he finished runner up to Points by two shots. He shot 31 twice on the front 9 at Pebble that week. I like him at 22/1.

Dustin Johnson is also 22/1 but I am concerned about his inconsistency this season. He seems to be fully recovered from his operation now and the two time champ is hard to resist, but inconsistency is something hard to deal with when you want to back someone at 22/1 so he has to be left out. Bryce Molder should have won this event two years ago before taking 9 on the brutal 14th at Pebble. He has two top tens in his two last starts here. He also has six top 15’s in his last 7 starts. Appealing but the big shots have got in there first pushing him into 28/1. He was 40/1 with Stan James yesterday and 33/1 general. 40/1 is the price I would be looking for, 28/1 is a little short unfortunately.

But Jeff Maggert looks a great price at 100/1. He was top 15 going into Sunday last week but struggled to 27th after a one over 72. He shot the course record 62 at Monterey last year and has two second place finished here. He sits 2nd in scoring average this year and 15th in total driving. If the putter is warmish he can go very close.

We need a result soon and I like the cards I am sitting with going into this week.

Dubai Desert Classic

3 pts Lee Westwood @ 11/1
1 pt each way Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 50/1
1 pt each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 66/1

AT&T Pebble Beach

1.5 pts each way Jeff Maggert @ 100/1
3 pts win Hunter Mahan @ 22/1

Special Bet

1 pt each way double Mahan 22/1 and Westwood 11/1

2012 running total -61 pts This weeks investment 15 pts

2011 total +370.78 pts
2010 total +189.33 pts


To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register’.

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

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Need Some Luck!

It has been a rough start to 2012, could do with some luck like this guy! (Reported by Sportinglife)

A 60-year-old man from Belfast is celebrating this week, after he won almost £140,000 at the weekend on a golf bet that he placed in error.
The punter, who wishes to remain anonymous, placed the bet online with coral.co.uk, and thought he had backed Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to win the Qatar Masters and Kyle Stanley for the Waste Management Phoenix Open in a £50 each-way double, whereas he had actually backed the Spaniard to be leading at the end of the first round in Doha after he selected the wrong market on the bookmaker's website, something that turned out to be a winning outcome.
"The customer was unaware of his mistake, and when Paul Lawrie triumphed in Qatar, he assumed his double had gone down as Gonzalo Fernando-Castano finished outside the top five, so he didn't tune in to see Kyle Stanley complete a remarkable victory in America," said Coral's David Stevens.
"When he logged on to his account on Monday morning, he got a very pleasant surprise to see his balance was almost £140,000, and once he checked the bets he had actually placed, he was able to celebrate," added Stevens.
Both selections were priced at 50/1, returning the customer £139,162.50.
"He admitted that he meant to back Fernando-Castano to win the tournament, not lead after the first round, so had no idea he had won so much, but he said the winnings will make a huge difference to his family, with his son's wedding later this year chief among his spending plans," said Stevens.
"When we saw his bet we thought he was an incredibly shrewd golf punter, but now we know he's also the luckiest, and certainly making a mistake has never been so profitable!" concluded Stevens.
WOW!
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