UA-33754892-1 Archives for 05 August 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

USPGA Championship

USPGA Championship In Running - After round 3

After the third round there's enough value in Adam Scott to get involved. Dustin went backwards in round 3, rather surprisingly to all, conditions were perfect for him and he was going well. Scott has not been in contention for anything for ages, therefore he is underrated. He’s won enough in the past to warrant converting here, he may see this as his 'only chance’ to get something out of this season. Brooks is a very worthy favourite, but has had a busy schedule and may run flat, although I think he probably wins.

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Koepka
42%
2.40

2.23
44.9%
3%
7.80
Scott
11%
9.00

6.29
15.9%
5%
43.17
Fowler
10%
10.00

11.73
8.5%
-1%
-14.77
Rahm
10%
10.00

8.53
11.7%
2%
17.26
Thomas
7%
15.00

16.70
6.0%
-1%
-10.20
Day
6%
17.00

14.61
6.8%
1%
16.39
Woods
5%
19.00

21.42
4.7%
-1%
-11.28
Woodland
5%
21.00

49.37
2.0%
-3%
-57.47
Molinari
2%
51.00

62.97
1.6%
0%
-19.02
Lowry
2%
51.00

118.94
0.8%
-1%
-57.12
Schwartzel
2%
51.00

62.78
1.6%
0%
-18.77
Cink
1%
81.00

43.81
2.3%
1%
84.90
Kisner
1%
101.00

251.93
0.4%
-1%
-59.91
Dustin
1%
126.00

178.79
0.6%
0%
-29.53
Simpson
1%
151.00

111.53
0.9%
0%
35.39





USPGA Championship In Running - After round 1

The market still looks about right. Fowler appears to offer some value but may be at the disadvantage of storms with his later tee time. I would sit tight with Dustin and continue to curse Casey. Casey does have a start slow finish strong thing going on, I wouldn’t be surprised if he played very well with an early tee time today, and he needs to! He needs a good week to be consider for a Ryder Cup pick, so he won’t give up.

To Win

0.25 points Rickie Fowler @ 7.5 (-0.25)


player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Dustin
15%
6.50

6.34
15.8%
0%
2.58
Fowler
13%
7.50

5.87
17.0%
4%
27.70
Day
9%
11.00

11.49
8.7%
0%
-4.26
Woodland
7%
15.00

17.07
5.9%
-1%
-12.15
Rose
6%
17.00

14.74
6.8%
1%
15.35
Thomas
4%
23.00

20.54
4.9%
1%
11.99
Rahm
4%
23.00

25.47
3.9%
0%
-9.69
McIlroy
4%
26.00

37.56
2.7%
-1%
-30.78
Koepka
3%
29.00

29.52
3.4%
0%
-1.75
Molinari
3%
29.00

34.61
2.9%
-1%
-16.20
Johnson
3%
34.00

22.03
4.5%
2%
54.34
Fleetwood
3%
36.00

40.28
2.5%
0%
-10.64
Poulter
2%
46.00

58.10
1.7%
0%
-20.82
Leishman
2%
51.00

37.77
2.6%
1%
35.02
Cantlay
2%
51.00

36.19
2.8%
1%
40.93
Simpson
2%
56.00

37.96
2.6%
1%
47.51
Spieth
2%
61.00

74.60
1.3%
0%
-18.23
Matsuyama
1%
67.00

31.52
3.2%
2%
112.57
Pieters
1%
67.00

48.69
2.1%
1%
37.61
Kisner
1%
67.00

55.84
1.8%
0%
19.99
Woods
1%
67.00

149.99
0.7%
-1%
-55.33
Grace
1%
81.00

108.03
0.9%
0%
-25.02
Niemann
1%
81.00

119.44
0.8%
0%
-32.18
Stanley
1%
81.00

141.03
0.7%
-1%
-42.57
Stone
1%
81.00

187.41
0.5%
-1%
-56.78
Watson
1%
91.00

323.70
0.3%
-1%
-71.89
Perez
1%
126.00

45.19
2.2%
1%
178.83


USPGA Championship


Again the Majors fly by.  We wait, we wait, we wait, for what feels like an eternity, and then they are over in the blink of an eye.  So lets enjoy the USPGA before the dark winter begins!

We may have to wait until April for the Masters, but only until May until the next USPGA Championship.  It has been moved up the schedule to the spring, when Bethpage Black hosts.

This year they play in St Louis at Bellerive and it will be hot.  Very hot, very humid.  There is no rain forecast and very little wind.  This will come as a huge relief to Bellerive's staff, members and locals.  In 2001 they were due to host a World Golf Championship event, then 9/11 happened and the event was cancelled.  In 2008 they hosted the BMW Championship.  Just before Hurricane Gustav tore through and the course was flooded.  They managed to complete 4 rounds over 3 days, but it was not the course they wanted to present.

Camillo Villegas won on that occasion in what, at the time, was seen as his breakthrough win.  He won't be here this week.  12 of the 68 who played then are playing this week.  However, what they learnt then won't be much use now.

The course promised to be a tough test,
Camillo led wire to wire and posted 15 under.  The field averaged 69.371 against a par of 70.  But the targets were wider from the tee with soft fairways, greens were receptive and easier to hit, flags easier to find on large but segmented greens.  It was not a true reflection of what Bellerive has to offer.

For the USPGA there will be 3 inches of fescue rough, this is certainly enough to make the players pay attention.  So will the 7316 yards that will not see many drivers left in the bag on any hole.  Nearly all the holes move right to left, very much like Augusta.  Only the 597 yard 17th curves right to left.  Drawers and
Bubba will enjoy this.  

For me though, the most important factors will be managing the heat and course management.  I think good iron players, especially mid and long iron ball strikers will have a decent edge here.  The greens are huge and getting to the correct section will be a big advantage.  Good putters like big greens, but few players will have experience and know these complexes.  

The hot St Louis summer has taken its toll on the course.  It has been closed most of the summer in an attempt to keep it alive for this week.  A lot of the bentgrass greens are burnt.  There is a lot of spray paint to cover this up and relayed turf.  This is mostly around the edges but holes like 9 the whole green is pretty crusty.  In the most part they putt ok towards the middle of the greens, but around the edges there will be a lot more chipping than putting from just off the edge of the greens. 
Kaymer won't like it!

45Bell1

Dustin Johnson is favourite to win the Wanamaker Trophy at 10/1.  He is my favourite too.  3rd last week at the Bridgestone, winner in Canada the week before, winner at TPC Southwind, 3rd at the US Open….. these are all in his last 5 starts!  He fades nearly everything, but faders have done well at Augusta and start lines are not so tight at Bellerive.  He has a great all round game and is very hard to oppose.  I would be nearer 8/1 and see him as a good bet for this.

I also like
Paul Casey.  He is very hard to win with but gives himself a lot of chances.  With putting ability slightly negated this week and ball striking rewarded it would not be a surprise to see him get involved again this week.  His last two weeks have been poor but he still boasts 11 top 20 finishes in 15 starts this year.  He is a big price at 66/1 and 70 on Betfair.  He is also worth supporting in the 'top finishes markets'.  

Rory will like the set up of the course and still seems to be able to contend when playing horribly and making mistake after mistake.  If it clicks for him 14/1 may retrospectively be big, but he is unpredictable.  Thomas is defending Champion and won the Bridgestone last week.  His putting was fantastic there and he will fancy his chances again, but as a fader who does better on low scoring courses I will give him a miss at 16/1.

Koepka should maybe not be ignored at 20/1.  He finished 5th last week when leading GIR, par 5 scoring, driving distance and total strokes gained tee to green.  These look like great numbers moving into a ball striking week.  He missed the cut the week before in Canada.  It would not be a surprise to see him have a chance here and plays tough, long courses very well.

Day is another with a big chance.  He is long and likes to work in right to left.  He posses a brilliant short game, which used to be his achilles heel, and is the best putter on the planet.  22/1 is fair but not quite big enough for me.

I am going to put a line through
Rose and SpiethRose at 22/1 is too short to bet, he withdrew from last week with back spasms and although a player that gets in to contention every time he tees it up, you need to feel confident he is fit if you are backing players at that sort of price, that his normally meticulous preparations have not been affected.  A little like Stenson at The Open, I don't expect him to be awful, but it is hard to contend with any sort of disadvantage.  Mind you he had the same thing when he won the Olympics!  Spieth, take out The Open, has been awful of late.  Driving it poorly and putting poorly is not a good combination.  We know he can make things happen but I think it is a big ask on a tough golf course.  I also think The Open form is particularly poor.  In very few events do guys come from the cut mark to 2nd over the weekend, does Kevin Chappel contend in, does Tiger move backwards in.  I believe if one of the better players had stepped up they could have beaten the field at Carnoustie by 10 or 12.  The leaders never extended.  This would be another blow to Spieth's  already poor form.

Fowler (25/1), Rahm (26/1), Fleetwood (25/1), Woods (28/1) and Molinari (33/1) are all genuine contenders at their best but none represent great value and none appear to be at their best.  Well, Molinari is, but his best is not always good enough.  Woods looks close but each time he has arrived on the leaderboard since he has comeback, he has jumped off it just as quickly.  Rahm has had a poor 2nd half of the season, Fowler is in and out but has shown glimpses.  He doesn't find winning easy.  They do make up the main contenders. 

Of the outsiders
Thorbjorn Olesen looks a threat at 80/1.  I backed him during the final round last week for the USPGA at 250/1 which had more appeal.  Still, his third last week at Firestone was his fifth top 12 finish since winning the Italian Open two months ago.

All in the market appears to have it about right at this stage.  Only
Dustin and Casey make enough appeal at the prices to back, at a push Fowler wouldn't be the worst bet ever.  My gut bet from a profiling point of view would be Jason Day, but there's not enough value in the price.  To spring a surprise, maybe Adam Scott at 125/1.  He can turn the ball over at will, is an exceptional iron player and his poor putting shouldn't show up so much.  Or the aforementioned OlesenPerez is once again underrated in the top finish markets.  In conclusion, I think Dustin will probably win this.

In other news I was at Le Golf National the last few days.  Having played the course I fancy Europe.  It is pretty short, very few drivers, premium on accuracy, greens are flat and subtle.  If the weather is bad, which is unlikely given the long range forecast, or the wind picks up, then Europe would be the bet.  I also await a 'to make the team' market for both Europe and America.  I hope that
Olesen is a fair price, although last week did us no favours, but The Great Dane, Thomas Bjorn, will shortly pick him in current form.  For The States, Finau was one of very few players to show up for Jim Furyk's 'open day' for potential and fringe players.  Although the course does not suit him, his current form is hard to ignore and the dedication to appear may be rewarded.

 

To Win

0.25 points Dustin Johnson @ 10 (-0.25)
0.25 points Paul Casey @ 67 (-0.25)

Top 5

0.4 points Paul Casey @ 12 (-0.4)


Top 10


0.5 points Paul Casey @ 6 (-0.5)
0.4 points Patrick Cantlay @ 6.5 (-0.4)
2 points Pat Perez @ 20 (-2)
0.25 points Tyrrell Hatton @ 10 (+1)



Top 20


0.5 points Paul Casey @ 3.1 (-0.5)
1 point Pat Perez @ 9.5 (-1)
0.5 points Ryan Moore @ 7 (-0.5)
0.4 points Tyrrell Hatton @ 5 (-0.4)


First Round Leader

No Bet


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

1.8 points Jason Day to beat Brooks Koepka @ 1.83 (-1.8)

1.2 points Phil Mickelson to beat Bubba Watson @ 1.83 (+1)


player

imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Dustin

10%

10.00


7.83

12.8%
3%
27.69

Thomas

7%

15.00


13.31

7.5%
1%
12.69

McIlroy

7%

15.00


16.40

6.1%
-1%
-8.55

Fowler

4%

23.00


16.17

6.2%
2%
42.23

Day

4%

23.00


17.32

5.8%
1%
32.78

Rose

4%

23.00


20.96

4.8%
0%
9.73

Koepka

4%

23.00


21.77

4.6%
0%
5.64

Spieth

4%

26.00


23.56

4.2%
0%
10.36

Rahm

4%

26.00


27.70

3.6%
0%
-6.13

Fleetwood

3%

29.00


26.71

3.7%
0%
8.57

Woods

3%

29.00


73.08

1.4%
-2%
-60.32

Molinari

3%

31.00


41.18

2.4%
-1%
-24.72

Reed

2%

41.00


40.22

2.5%
0%
1.93

Casey

2%

51.00


24.80

4.0%
2%
105.64

Cantlay

2%

51.00


40.12

2.5%
1%
27.11

Finau

2%

51.00


45.58

2.2%
0%
11.88

Stenson

2%

51.00


49.33

2.0%
0%
3.38

Noren

2%

56.00


52.75

1.9%
0%
6.17

Matsuyama

2%

61.00


33.86

3.0%
1%
80.14

Leishman

2%

61.00


43.72

2.3%
1%
39.52

Schauffele

2%

61.00


92.71

1.1%
-1%
-34.21

Watson

1%

67.00


136.40

0.7%
-1%
-50.88

Simpson

1%

71.00


43.78

2.3%
1%
62.19

Oosthuizen

1%

81.00


50.69

2.0%
1%
59.81

Johnson

1%

81.00


70.10

1.4%
0%
15.55

Mickelson

1%

81.00


71.50

1.4%
0%
13.28

Kuchar

1%

81.00


92.25

1.1%
0%
-12.19

DeChambeau

1%

81.00


140.05

0.7%
-1%
-42.16

Niemann

1%

81.00


162.50

0.6%
-1%
-50.15

Garcia

1%

101.00


78.48

1.3%
0%
28.70

Olesen

1%

101.00


107.04

0.9%
0%
-5.64

Grace

1%

101.00


127.80

0.8%
0%
-20.97

Poulter

1%

101.00


128.78

0.8%
0%
-21.57

Chappell

1%

101.00


152.22

0.7%
0%
-33.65

Stanley

1%

101.00


198.71

0.5%
0%
-49.17

Hatton

1%

126.00


82.04

1.2%
0%
53.58

Hoffman

1%

126.00


105.70

0.9%
0%
19.20

Scott

1%

126.00


115.86

0.9%
0%
8.75

Kisner

1%

126.00


130.11

0.8%
0%
-3.16




This week's P&L = -6.25
This week’s investment = 9.7 points


This week's Outright P&L =  -5.2 points
This weeks's Outright Investment = 6.45 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -1.05 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 3.25 points



2018 Total P&L =  -94.18 points

2018 Total Investment = 1729.11 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
-38.08 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 817.54 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -56.1 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 911.57 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan.  Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.  


It is important to focus on bet size.  It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.  

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide.  So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection.  Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year.  The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account.  This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more.  Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones.  It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated.  The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested.  The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.


2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.


www.jasonkellygolf.com
@jasonkellygolf

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