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Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Masters Day 3

The Masters Day 3

0.5 point trebles and a 0.5 point accumulator day 3, 18 hole matches. (-2.5 points)

17.45 Bubba Watson to beat Rory McIlroy @ 11/8
17.55 Patrick Reed to beat Blixt @ 8/11
15.25 Henrik Stenson to beat Matt Kuchar @ Evs
18.15 Sergio Garcia to beat Tiger Woods @ 13/10

2 points Sergio Garcia to beat Tiger Woods @ 13/10 (-2 points)




The Masters

2 points win Jason Day @ 14/1 (-2 points)

1.5 points each way Jimmy Walker @ 22/1 (-3 points)

1 point each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 70/1 (+17.5 points)

0.5 points each way Webb Simpson @ 150/1 (-1 point)

Specials

2 points each way Jimmy Walker to be Top American @ 12/1 (ew 1/4 1-4) (-4 points)

1 point Webb Simpson to finish in the Top 20 @ 4/1 (-1 point)

1 point each way Patrick Reed to be First Round Leader @ 40/1 (ew 1/4 1-5) (-2 points)


(Already Advised)

The Masters
2 points each way Bubba Watson @ 11/1 (-4 points)


2015 running total =  -6.74 points. This week’s investment 19.5 points. This weeks P&L = 0 points

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015


1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

The Open
1.5 points each way Bubba Watson @ 40/1


2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments

The Masters

It symbolises the end of winter golf and the start of the golf season in the UK; the beauty of the course, the colours, the sounds that even non golfers fall in love with; the unique status and charm the event holds; the history; the season’s first Major test; the traditions; a peek inside the most exclusive golf club in the world. There are many reasons to love The Masters week but it’s the combination of them all that gets every golf fan excited, like kids before Christmas.

“I’ve never been to heaven, and thinking back on my life, I probably won’t get the chance to go. I guess winning the Masters is as close as I am going to get.” Fuzzy Zoeller.

So who is going to get that little taste of heaven this week?

Well, the forecast isn’t great but shouldn’t effect play too much. Winds are forecast to be light all week. Thursday and Friday should be hot and sticky and as the temperature drops into the weekend thunderstorms will become a decent threat, especially on Saturday. The lack of wind is the key thing to take from the forecast, after that the fact the course should start off pretty firm and perhaps soften over the weekend.

We are lead to believe that the perfect player fit for Augusta is a long hitter who draws the ball and is a great putter. That is true to an extent, but there have been lots of winners of the Masters who are not known for their putting. Bubba has won two of the last three Masters and although his putting has improved enormously, he certainly wasn’t known for his putting then. Scott’s strength is certainly not his putting. Vijay Singh was never envied as a strong putter, nor Langer, nor Couples who owns one of the best Master’s records of them all . Striker, Faxon, Baddeley were and are great putters, not great Masters records.

So lets dig deeper. How did players like Singh, Langer, Scott, Bubba and Couples do so well? Well, lets include Olazabal too, as he has a very strong Masters course record and is another great example of Augusta’s horses for courses theme. The thing they all have in common is they are great iron players. How do players like Tim Clark do well at Augusta? He is a very short hitter, can’t chip and is a streaky putter. He does, however, control his approach shots as well as anyone. This for me is the key. You can be a great putter but if you are putting from the wrong places you still won’t hole them and you still won’t compete.

Augusta’s greens are full of ledges. Almost mini greens within the greens if you like. If you can find these mini greens regularly and preferably leave yourself below the hole, then you can contend. You have to be able to putt aggressively and not defensively.

Distance from the tee will help on this 7435 yard course. It allows you to control your approaches better and allows you to stop them more easily. But it is not essential. Certain holes, like the 11th, the 18th and the par 5s the length advantage is fairly key. But even at the par 5s players like Immelman, Weir and Zach Johnson have had success playing conservatively. This is not an advantage, but not as much of a disadvantage as some may think. In 2012 when Luke Donald was world number one he did not rank inside the top 150 players on the PGA Tour in driving distance, driving accuracy or greens in regulation but lead par 5 scoring. There is more than one way to skin the par 5s but the long hitters do make it look easier.

Let’s try and back up these opinions a little further. 99% of people will think that Bubba is the best fit for this golf course. He is long, likes hitting the ball right to left and has won two of the last three editions. Bubba has played six Masters and his two wins are his only two top 15 finishes. What was the difference? All the years he has played he has ranked inside the top 5 in driving distance entering the week. The two years he won also ranked in the top 5 in greens in regulation entering the week. His four other starts he was outside the top 5 in GIR. In the actual tournament he ranked inside the top 5 in driving distance and greens in regulation in both his wins. His other four starts he ranked inside the top 5 in driving distance, but not in GIR. This shows the importance of approach work at Augusta, not just length, and certainly not just putting.

Westwood plays Augusta well. He drives it good, is slightly above average in length, putts well sporadically and not well under pressure but is an exceptionally good iron player. In conclusion I am focusing on iron play, then par 5 scoring and driving distance.

So, lets look at Bubba for this year. I obviously like him as I backed him and recommended backing him a few weeks ago. I still think he has a great chance but a few weeks ago he was way ahead of anyone else in my view, and now a few others have caught up with him and two have gone passed him on my rankings. The positives for Bubba are the fact he knows how to win here, the course sets up perfectly for him, he ranks 2nd in driving distance, 1st in par 5 scoring, 2nd in scrambling, 12th in putting and is coming off four top 15s in his last four starts. Plenty of ammunition there! Especially the huge improvement in his putting and short game in general. The negatives, well there’s only two. One is mentally. Can he handle the pressure of self expectation and the outside anticipation of another big performance? I think he can, he has matured a lot since his first Masters win and appears settled and puts things in to perspective impressively. The second negative is his approach play. He is normally a greens in regulation machine but now ranks a lowly 130th in GIR. This is a concern as he ranked inside the top 5 going in to both of his Masters wins. I’m happy we have him onside but won’t be topping up on Bubba.

It is a similar story with Dustin Johnson. He ranks first in driving distance and 5th in par 5 scoring. He has won and has three other top 6s in his last five starts. There’s a lot to like, but the worry would be the rank of 112th in GIR and 144th in putting. His results have been incredible considering those numbers. I am happy to pass at 16/1, although I think he will take it low on at least one of the days. One to maybe play in a 18 hole matchbet if out of contention on the weekend.

There is a lot of well placed hype around the young American Jordan Spieth coming into this. I like him. He is one of the players I believe has improved passed Bubba. But do I like him at 10/1? Not really. He finished an impressive 2nd to Bubba last year on debut so the course is not an issue. He ranks 97th in par 5 scoring, 55th in driving distance and 103rd in GIR. Not really what I am looking for but recent form and the fact he is 40%+ from 10-20ft means he is not without a chance. But I have no interest at the price.

Rory at 6/1 is short too. He, like Bubba, gets the, “He’s perfect for this course” vote. And sure, he hits it long, hits it right to left and could have won here before. But he still has nothing better than an 8th to his name, which came last year. He is world number one which helps to justify the favourite position. I think he will get off to a slow start and then come charging late on. There is an awful lot of pressure on him, which I think he can handle, but maybe he wants this a little too much. Once he lets go I think he will tear it up. My statistical concern with Rory is much the same as it has been for a while. His short game is just not up to much. When he is on, tee to green he is hugely impressive. But his scrambling is poor and he can’t save a score on a bad ball striking day as well as others. When the field averages just 58% of greens hit and then just 55% scrambling at Augusta, it is something that no player can really avoid, especially under pressure when everyone inevitably hits the occasional poor shot. Rory scrambles 52% of the time which ranks him 187th out of 205. If Rory wins he will do it from a long way out in front, with an awesome long game display. He ranks 97th in par 5 scoring and 72nd in GIR which suggests this isn’t guaranteed. For me 6/1 is too short, and the 7/2 a couple of weeks ago was way too short.

A player I do like is Jimmy Walker. He won for us two weeks ago at the Texas Open and has been, if not the best, certainly in the top 3 best players in the world for the last 18 months. He finished 8th here last year on debut, hits a draw, ranks 17th in driving distance, 27th in greens in regulation and 3rd in par 5 scoring. There’s not much not to like and with a price of 25/1 is definitely worth considering.

An interesting outsider to consider is Ryan Palmer. 100/1 is a big price for an in form player who fits the profile fairly well. He finished 10th here in 2011, which is his best finish in 4 starts. His last start was in 2012. He ranks 6th in driving distance, 41st in greens and 27th in par 5 scoring. He has put himself in the mix a lot this year but struggled to get it done. He is certainly an interesting player whose slow stroke could work on these greens.

Hideki Matsuyama has to putt better than he has done the last couple of months to contend here. He is a serious threat though. He finished 27th here as low amateur in 2011, 54th in 2012 but missed the cut last year. He ranks 35th in driving distance, 11th in GIR and 23rd in par 5 scoring. His long game will be good enough and if the putter warms up 70/1 would be very big. Two months ago he would have been a 25/1-33/1 chance for this. Poor putters have won this and he seems open to plenty of improvement. I like him.

Patrick Reed may be the second most ‘hated’ player in this field, after Bubba, as voted amongst his peers on the PGA Tour in a recent anonymous ESPN survey, but he comes to Augusta with a live chance. Nobody will believe they can win this more than he will. He has the hook flight, ranks 19th in par 5 scoring, 87th in driving distance, 78th in GIR and went to Augusta State so will have played here a lot. This is offset by ranking 3rd in scrambling and 24th in putting (was ranked 11th before Houston so could be starting to struggle with the short stick). But his form is strong. I like Reed to start well and fade. 40/1 to be first round leader is worth consideration.

Paul Casey got one of the four late invites to Augusta and there is a lot to like about the rejuvenated Englishman. He finished 9th last week in Houston where he ranked 2nd in par 5 scoring for the week. He ranks 5th in that stat for the season. He finished 6th in 2004 and 10th in 2007 but has not played since missing the cut in 2012. He has shown good form this season. He ranks 31st in driving distance and 24th in GIR. I think he will go well, but 66/1 doesn’t appeal so much when you see the names around him. I would have backed him at 100/1+. This is a theme that is reflected throughout the markets, top Brit, top Englishman etc. There is very little value about Casey unfortunately.

Webb Simpson has finished 44-MC-MC in his 3 Masters starts. Not very impressive at all! Is there any hope for the 150/1 chance. Well, I think so. He ranks 2nd in par 5 scoring, 13th in GIR and 66th in driving distance, hitting a draw. Adam Scott is moving back to the long putter for this week and I wish Webb Simpson would go back to the belly. He ranks 149th in putting with the short stick this season. Still, the price is too big and I am going to have a small interest on the 2012 US Open Champion.

I think a great bet this week is Henrik Stenson. He withdrew last week from Houston with the flu, and didn’t play a planned practice round at Augusta at the start of last week. Stenson has nothing better than a 14th in 9 starts at The Masters which is also a worry. On the flip side though that 14th was last year so he is improving! In seriousness his last, 3 starts he has finished 4-4-2 and he leads the Tour in adjusted scoring. He ranks a lowly 122nd in driving distance, which is understandable as most of his schedule this season has suited hitting his 3 wood in play. He gets the driver out when he needs to. But he ranks 12th in driving accuracy, 2nd in GIR and 2nd in putting. Those last two are the key. 2nd in greens in regulation and 2nd in putting. That is a killer combination. Stenson has never in his 9 starts at Augusta putted this well going in. I think 22/1 is fair and a price that looks at his Masters form more than his recent form. I like his chances. Update Tuesday PM - I’ve just heard that Stenson is improving but very tired. Perhaps best left alone, which is a shame as a fit Stenson would have been my best bet for this year’s Masters

Adam Scott has played 13 Masters tournaments. Four of those have gone for top 10s including 3 of his last 4. He finished 14th last year. This season he has hit a higher percentage of greens in regulation than anyone, he ranks tied 2nd in driving distance and 63rd in par 5 scoring. His putting continues to disappoint despite initial encouragement when switching to the short putter using the claw. He ranks 188th in putting. He reverts back to the long putter this week. Will this be the difference? Hard to say, and we have not really seen enough of him to really judge. He is a fair price at 20/1 but there are too many question for me and I would have liked to have seen him play more.

Jason Day has finished 2-WD-3-20 in his four Masters starts. He ranks 3rd in greens in regulation, 37th in par 5 scoring and 9th in driving distance. There’s a lot to like about the talented Australian. One thing that I really like is he flights it higher than anyone else on Tour. This is a big asset at Augusta, especially on a week where it is not supposed to blow. 52nd in putting is not too exciting but it is also a representation of the number of greens he hits. This year he has played 8 events and finished outside the top 17 once, at The Cadillac Championships, where the wind blew. He notched up a win at the Farmers Insurance. Hmmmm... 16/1 in a place, 14/1 generally. He is very tempting.

The problem this week is I want to back three players all between the prices of 14/1 and 22/1 and we already have Bubba at 11/1. We can’t back them all in the outright market so here’s what we will do.



The Masters

2 points win Jason Day @ 14/1

1.5 points each way Jimmy Walker @ 22/1

1 point each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 70/1

0.5 points each way Webb Simpson @ 150/1

Specials

2 points each way Jimmy Walker to be Top American @ 12/1 (ew 1/4 1-4)

1 point Webb Simpson to finish in the Top 20 @ 4/1

1 point each way Patrick Reed to be First Round Leader @ 40/1 (ew 1/4 1-5)


(Already Advised)

The Masters
2 points each way Bubba Watson @ 11/1


2015 running total =  -6.74 points. This week’s investment 15 points. This weeks P&L =

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015


1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

The Open
1.5 points each way Bubba Watson @ 40/1


2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments