UA-33754892-1 Archives for 04 November 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Barclays Singapore Open and the Childrens Miracle Classic

Ian Poulter, what a great weekend you had sir. A pair of stunning 65’s left you fist pumping and me crying; eating humble pie. He did well, but others did disappoint to allow him to win. Louis Oosthuizen showed the flare in the first two rounds we wanted to see the week before when we backed him in the BMW. He was very impressive but then came up with very little over the weekend. He does not find winning easy. Westwood shot an incredible 61 in round three to set him up to win the biggest tournament of his career but once again buckled on Sunday. His short game technique is so, so bad. Why he bothers going to the gym so intensely when he can’t pitch or chip is beyond me. He should spend those few hours around a green copying good chippers actions, which are so different to his. Dufner saved the day for us. Another solid performance by a very strong player. His second place finish won us 10.5 points and covered the 7 points we lost on the two Poulter match bets and 3 points on Keegan Bradley. We made 0.5 points. That leaves us at +189.86 points for the year or +£1898.60 to a £10 stake.

So lets move on to this week and first up the Barclays Singapore Open. This event is seriously top heavy.
Rory is the 9/2 favourite, Adam Scott the well backed 7/1 second favourite, then Mickelson at 11/1 and Louis Oosthuizen at 12/1. It is easy to argue reasons why each of these four can win, they are all great players in good form. Out of the four, if I had to back one, it would be Louis but to me there is nothing generous about these prices. There are two players I like at bigger prices but you can’t help but thinking at best they will be scrambling for a place as one of the ‘big four’ should win. I am shocked only betfair price up the ‘big four’ Vs the field and there is no liquidity in the market. A shame as that could have been an interesting bet this week.

Anyway, the two players I alluded to earlier are
Eduardo Molinari and John Daly. Yes, I said John Daly… Mr Freeloader, the world owes me something, give me an invite, himself! Daly is 175/1, 200/1 in a place. This is a big price about someone who has been in some form of late. He finished 18th in the USPGA, 5th in the Reno Tahoe, opened 69-63 in the Justin Timberlake before 86, 77 on the weekend! Typical Daly. He is very nearly worth a little play here. You never know which Daly is going to turn up but when he is interested and not acting like a big kid he is still a decent player and this year he has been putting well. I don’t think he will enjoy the Singapore heat or the feisty rough so is maybe best left alone here but worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks. Eduardo Molinari has been steady since returning from injury. Last time out he finished bogey, bogey to still finish in the top 25 at -8 in the BMW. I get the feeling he is close and he enjoys Singapore having finished 5th here last year. He looks a fair price at 66/1 (70/1 with Boylesports and Sportingbet).

So on to the USA and the Childrens Miracle Network Hospitals Classic. A fall event full of players looking to gain exemptions. For some the top 70 of the money list is the target as this gets you The Memorial and the Arnold Palmer and for others the top 80 will get Colonial. Further down players will be gunning to finish in the top 125 to keep their playing rights for next year. Some players will respond well to the added incentives/pressure, some won’t.

A couple of our favourite players to back lead the betting. Players we have backed at 66/1+ throughout the year suddenly open up 14/1 joint favourites for a main tour event, its weird to see, but fair. They have both really stepped up this year.
De Jonge sits top of my ‘most likely to win’ list, closely followed by Garrigus and Overton. Overton I think is now a non runner but was not much of a price at 33/1 either. I like the top two but not at 14/1, if they were twenty-something to one they could have tempted me. Next on my list are Roberto Castro 125/1, Will Claxton 80/1, Billy Horschel 80/1, Harris English 66/1, John Rollins 66/1 and Blake Adams 40/1.

These guys are difficult to separate as they are all very similar players. They are all good ball strikers who get a look at a lot of chances and when the putter is one they are not scared of going low. However, these six players have struggled to put four low rounds together on a single week this season, but have shown plenty of ability by going low often.

Roberto Castro is 118th on the money list and knows a good week will secure his playing rights for next year. He is a very solid player ranking 18th in total driving and 19th in greens in regulation and has plenty of low numbers to his name throughout the year. I think the rookie out of Georgia Tech can have a big week this week at 125/1. Will Claxton is another who will be nervous at the start of the week starting 113th in the money list. But like Castro, if he can break the back of the tournament early ( breaking the back; definition - to be nearer the lead and looking forward rather than being near the cut and looking backwards) he can definitely contend. He finished 5th at the True South on -18 and shot 66-65 in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the McGladery three weeks ago. 80/1 is fair.

Billy Horschel has had a limited schedule on Tour this year, having only played 16 events. He is 148th on the money list and only a huge week will do. He is capable and can do it. He finished 3rd at the True South on -20, shooting 71 on the last day. This has been a theme for him this year. He would have been a good ‘betfair kid’ for this year. (Betfair Kid; definition - a player who puts himself in contention at a big starting price only to be laid off on betfair at a much shorter price before exploding. See ‘Michael Campbell’ throughout the 2000’s) Horschel ranks 14th in actual scoring on tour, 15th in before the cut scoring, 9th in third round scoring and 138th in final round scoring! I think he is worth a bet at 80/1 especially when you see his last few tournaments. His last two finishes on the have been tied 4th 69-63-69-68 (-15) and 7th 68-65-67-68 (-16) and on the main tour 16 of his last 32 rounds have been at 68 or better. If he gets in the mix I may be choking as much as he is on Sunday but I am prepared to do that…. especially with the support of betfair!

Harris English is a serious player and ranks 87th on the money list in his rookie season. He lead The Players after two rounds this year and shot 60-63 to qualify for the British Open. (Finished 54th in his first Major). He finished 15th last time out at the Mcgladery where he ranked 2nd in GIR and needs a good week to break that top 70. He is nicely priced to do that at 66/1 and has to be backed at a very fair price. Ranking 21st in distance and 30th in greens in regulation he should get plenty of chances.

Rollins is one I am going to have to leave out. He ranks alongside the aforementioned when it comes to ball striking but not when it comes to putting. Rollins is an exceptional driver of the ball and enjoys a tougher test than the Disney courses offer. He can get involved but is passed over at 66/1.

I was massively keen on
Blake Adams chances at the start of the week. 69th on the money list gives him plenty to play for and he has finished 8th and 15th in his last two starts, posting six consecutive rounds in the 60’s in the process. The problem is he only just squeezed into my ‘backable players’ by a few points from Richard H Lee and just passed the value test when he was 50/1 but after strong support he is now 40/1 and not a good price and not a bet.

Barclays Singapore Open

1.5 pts each way Eduardo Molinari @ 66/1

Childrens Miracle Network Hospital Classic

1pt each way Roberto Castro @ 125/1
1pt each way Will Claxton @ 80/1
1pt each way Billy Horschel @ 80/1
1.5 pts each way Harris English @ 66/1

2012 running total +189.86 points. This weeks investment 12 points. This week’s P&L = -12 pts.

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.