UA-33754892-1 Archives for 04 March 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC Cadillac Championship

Last week there was good news and bad news.  The bad news is we did not back a winner. The good news our US Masters pick is looking a bit better!  We lost 9 points.  4 pts on Noh who never really fired, made the cut but made too many big numbers. 3 pts on Stanley who had a shocker and missed the cut and 2 points on Bradley who was 4th after three rounds but really struggled on Sunday.  We are now -46.37 points down on the year, including our Tiger stake.

At the moment there are three players in the world who seem in a different league to everyone else. Three players who when they really show up are untouchable. These three are Mcilroy, Woods and Westwood. Players like Donald, Kaymer, Mickelson, Scott, Day and Striker are not far behind and will win a lot but these three players for me are a different class. The others can grind out wins, these guys can contend every week.

These three players are in the field this week which makes things a little difficult.  Ironically the thing that is most difficult when trying to back them is they are always going off at win only prices and they do not win as often as you would think. Rory is the hottest of the trio with three wins in his last 12 events. This is an impressive win ratio indeed but bear in mind 11 of these 12 events he finished in the top 5. He does not make winning look as easy as some.  Others sometimes only need a sniff to convert but it is a positive sign how often he puts himself in contention. He deserves to be world number one.

Westwood's 4th place finish last week, after an awesome final day 63, was his third straight top 5. His conversion rate really is frustrating.  He is in the mix so often and used to be ruthless but now he appears toothless. Dubai was a prime example of this when lagging putts the whole of the back 9. He wins small meaningless events for fun but struggles to get over the line on the world stage. 

Last week I said I thought Woods was back to his best. His final round 62 was up there amongst his best ever rounds.  His stats are phenomenal.  Notoriously his driving has been he achilles heel apart from in 2000. Now he is 14th in distance, 5th in accuracy and number 1 in total driving. Add 13th in greens in regulation to that plus his final day putting last week and you can see the complete package is very very close.  I am happy we took the 13/2 about him for the Masters.  Now he is a best price 11/2 and as short as 9/2 in a few places.  

So who is going to win this week and where is the value?  I like these three plus Stanley 80/1, Crane 100/1, Bradley 40/1, Snedeker 70/1, Watson 66/1 and Senden 125/1.

We need to look for a player who can go low.  To do this at Doral there is a focus on driving as the rough can get up and the greens can get firm.  Wind and thunderstorms are forecast this week so this has to be factored in too. Patience and experience during delays is vital in any event and particularly so in big events like WGC's. But as we all know things always come down to putting, especially when scoring goes low.  Last year these were the sixth easiest greens so there should be plenty of birdies.  

I want to take Westwood out first. At first glance 14/1 looks very fair and with his excellent recent form, brilliant driving and the fact he will really really want this this week.  He won't like looking up at Rory in the world rankings and has said that Majors and WGCs are the events he is really focused on now.  However, he has no top 15's in four starts here and for me he is all about bogey avoidance rather than loading up on birdies.  He does not putt consistently enough to go low.  From 5 to 10 ft he makes 45% (160th) and 10-15ft 14% (170th). Therefore he is passed over.

Mcilroy has had a long few weeks.  Statistically he is the weakest of 'the big three' and for me there is not much value in the 6/1 on offer.  Course does suit and he ranks 1st in putting but not for me this week.  

Kyle Stanley was very disappointing last week and despite being a decent price at 80/1 he his hard to fancy in conditions that will be very similar.  Snedeker is another who makes some appeal as he ranks 7th in birdies and is a nice price at 70/1 but in his one appearance here he finished 44th never breaking 70. I may have backed him if it was not for the value in Ben Crane.  Crane has three top 10's this season.  He ranks 26th in greens in reg, 1st in eagles, 2nd in birdies and 7th in putting. 100/1 is too big to ignore and he will be in the staking plan this week.

John Senden and Bubba Watson are two great ball strikers.  It is all about finding a week when they hole a few putts.  Watson ranks 157th in putting and Senden 121st. There will be better weeks to be backing them I think. I do think Watson will enjoy playing in Florida though, after a week off.  It is pretty incredible really that he is 5 out of 5 top 20's this year when putting his ball so badly.  Maybe he is worth a small interest on greens that he will be more at home on.  Keegan Bradley to me has been playing some great stuff and has been getting in the mix a lot but for me I feel he is peaked and maybe going to be on the downgrade for the next few weeks. He is a great player and statistically very strong, but I just have that feeling with him at the moment.

Tiger Wood's stats, as I mentioned earlier, are off the charts. So impressive.  That combined with last weeks form and the fact he is a three time champion here and has never finished outside the top 10 in 8 starts surely makes him a must bet here.  I am not really a fan of backing players at short prices but I have a feeling it may be a while again before we can get prices like 7/1 about Woods winning.

Elsewhere, there is very little to get excited about in the event in Peurto Rico.

WGC Cadillac Championship

1pt each way Ben Crane @ 100/1
1pt each way Bubba Watson @ 66/1 
6 pts Tiger Woods @ 7/1

2012 running total -46.37 points. This weeks investment 10 points
(Already Advised - 6 pts Tiger Woods @ 13/2 US Masters)

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.