UA-33754892-1 Archives for 04 January 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Hyundai Tournament of Champions and South African Open

Here we go again, another calendar year of golf begins. This year, for the first time since I started writing in 2010, I am happy to have clean slate. We lost a total of 103.98 points last year and that takes a fair bit of getting back. I hate seeing minus symbols in front of numbers unless it is a number next to my name or a player we have backed! We are still 582.27 points ahead since I started publishing tips. Lets take that number back in the right direction.

Analysing last year it was clear where the errors lay. I made too many selections and gave selections each week even if they were not strongly fancied. This year I will be more selective. I will also give more match bets, specials and in running plays. We made good money in these areas the last few years but I have been reluctant to advise these bets as they are not always offered by every bookmaker. I wanted everyone to be able to get on quickly, easily and, importantly, at a price that everyone can get. Many tipsters will advise bets with small firms at prices which will disappear after a £10 bet and is on on offer no where else. I have never done this.

The key to be able to bet smaller, more bespoke markets is to hold multiple accounts. There is no harm in it, especially with all the free bets and offers available to new customers. An easier option is to look to a firm like Geoff Banks (geoff-banks.com), a private bookmaker who has the ability to lay bets as requested by the client. Having your money in one place is an easier way to manage an account and a personal, private, service is nearly always preferable.

Anyway, lets get to it.

Lets look quickly at the South African Open first. Glendower Golf Club hosts again. At 7564 yards one could be mistaken to think it will favour the long hitters. It certainly won’t this year. The altitude makes it much shorter but more notably is the rough is going to make this a test of accuracy. The rough has been described as ‘hectic’ and ‘unplayable in places’ by players. This is a result of the wettest December in 25 years. The Kikuyu/Indigenous mix is cut to 10cm in most places but it is so thick, wet and heavy that it is going to be very penal. Good, accurate drivers will have a significant advantage this week. The bent grass greens should remain perfect, as you would expect in South Africa this time of year. There is a threat of thunderstorms throughout so one would anticipate it won’t be too firm and fast. This is important as the short hitters can compete on softer greens.

I like two players. Thomas Aiken at 25/1 and Adilson Da Silva at 150/1. They are both straight hitters and have been playing some acceptable stuff of late. Aiken has finished 5th and 15th in his last two and will love this test. He is fairly priced, mainly thanks to Charl Schwartzel’s ridiculous price of 8/1. The way he has been playing of late, especially with the driver, makes that price just horrific. He has a great record in SA and is a great player but you are backing a name at 8/1, not the current player. (It is just a shame there are not more ways to go against Schwartzel, there is a 72 hole matchbet with Grace at 10/11 but I wanted to take him on with Els, and there is only the price with one small firm of 6/5 Els. His 3 ball is weak too, Sterne and Paul Lawrie are not really two players you want to be with at the moment) 25/1 Aiken is very acceptable. Da Silva plays a mix of Sunshine Tour and Asian Tour. The way this is set up is ideal for him and 12/1 him to finish top 10 has appeal.

We can also have a speculative punt on Jason Palmer to be round one leader at 250/1. He is out early before the wind picks up and the predicted afternoon storms interrupt. He hits it very straight and, if the putter is on, he knows how to go low. Jason Barnes was considered in this market too but his late tee time was off putting.

In the States we have the limited field, winners only, Hyundai Tournament of Champions. 38 players qualified, 34 tee it up. One, again, is inclined to think the wide fairways and 7452 yards on the scorecard means this is a bombers paradise. When you see that 6 of the 9 longest drives on Tour were registered here it may add fuel to that thought. However, the average distance of all drives at Kapalua last year was just 281.9 yards. The huge elevation changes and running fairways makes this a level playing field between the long and short hitters.

The greens average 7120 square feet and last year players hit over 77% greens in regulation. The separation is how close they hit them. They averaged 39 feet in proximity, third longest of the year, and you do not make many birdies hitting it to 39 feet all day. If there is no wind an accurate iron player with a hot putter should win this, but there is a forecast prevailing wind for the first three days and then switches to the opposite direction on Monday, the last day.

They say experience is a key factor at Kapalua, and perhaps it is, but not many of the players on show here have a huge amount of experience of this course. Maybe more of a factor is how rusty they are coming off a winter break. For me there is nothing that really stands out at the top of the market so therefore I am going to make two value plays.

I am going to back Ben Martin and Robert Streb both at 50/1. Both have very strong all around games. Streb is maybe a bit more of a power player where Martin is a fraction more accurate. The big thing for me is they are both recent winners, in hot form, capable, motivated and over priced.

Robert Streb is basically an unheralded Jimmy Walker. Walker finished 2013 in strong form, everyone stood up and paid attention. The prices he was going off at reflected this new found ‘star status’. Last year at this point, having played the same schedule, Walker had 684 FedEx points, Streb has 681 right now yet we can take 50/1. Nothing like backing a capable player just because his name hasn’t been put up in lights yet.

Ben Martin won the Shriners in October playing the last four in four under. His quote this week, “The win takes a little bit of the stress off. Any time that I can be more relaxed going into a tournament the better I am going to play.” Hawaii in early January.... that should help relax him!!


South African Open


1.25 points each way Thomas Aiken @ 25/1
(-0.99 pts)
0.5 points each way Adilson Da Silva @ 150/1
(- 1 pt)
0.5 points Addison Da Silva to finish in the top 10 @ 12/1 (-0.5 pts)
0.25 points each way Jason Palmer to be first round leader at 250/1
(-0.5 pts)


Hyundai Tournament of Champions

0.75 points each way Ben Martin @ 50/1
(-1.5 pts)
1.25 points each way Robert Streb @ 50/1 (-2.5 pts)


2015 running total =  0 points. This week’s investment 8.5 points. This weeks P&L = -6.99 points

(Already advised) US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.



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