UA-33754892-1 Archives for 04 December 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Dubai World Championships

So a disappointing week all round.  I had a shocker at Tour School and all four picks got beat.  The good news is that with no European Tour card the tips can continue for another year!

Soren Kjelsden was our closest to getting a return last week.  He had an awful last round after starting the day in 5th.  We lost 10 points bringing our yearly total back to 303.92 points in front or £3039.20 to a £10 stake.

This week there is only one tournament to look at, The Dubai World Championship.  The season closer on the European Tour, or the Tour Championship as it should be known.  I played this course earlier this year.  It is ok.  Long at over 7600 yards and has loads of ridiculous bunkers all over the place.  It is a long hitters dream course as it is wide throughout and there is little premium on accuracy apart from with the approach shots.  The greens are big and have decent breaks in them.  The last hole is possibly one of the worst holes I have ever played and I am sure this is not the course Greg Norman will be proudest of designing.

I say it is a long hitters dream but last year Poulter tied with Karlsson and Poulter is not long.  The greens are so pure that good putters will always have a chance so perhaps Poulter and Donald should not be dismissed for being short.  However I am going to concentrate on the big hitters.

Alvaro Quiros is the longest in the field, he showed strong form for three days last week in Hong Kong on a course that really should not favour him.  He has a terrific record in the desert and missed out on a playoff by a shot here last year.  He looks a fair price at 40/1.

The top of the market is dominated by the usual suspects and none can be dismissed easily.  The favourite is Westwood.  His performance last week at Sun City, especially the third round of 10 under 62, was exemplary.  He also missed a playoff here last year by one after hitting it in the water on the last.  11/2 is fair.  Mcilroy is 6/1 and also won last week.  He finished -12 last year when the playoff was -14.  He has won in Dubai and won last week in Hong Kong.  He looks to have the edge over Westwood here as he is a better putter. Donald 11/1, Kaymer 14/1 and Garcia 14/1 all have solid claims as well.  11/1 Donald is as good a price as we have seen about him for a long time and is maybe a reflection on how the course sets up against him, but he is good enough to putt his way into contention anywhere.  Kaymer has maybe not shown enough to make him backable  but again he would not be a surprise. If Garcia retains his Valderrama form he will be hard to beat too.

At bigger prices I have mentioned Quiros and he will be in the staking plan.  Others to keep in mind are Ross Fisher 80/1 who should like this venue, Christian Nillson who is long and can get in the mix at 175/1, Nicolas Colsaerts at 125/1.  He was in great form earlier this season and his length will be to his advantage here at a nice price.  This is actually very similar to the Ernie Els course at the Four Seasons in Mauritius where he won at the end of last season and Scott Jamieson.  The Scot Scott is the rank outsider at 350/1 which is correct as his form since qualifying himself for this event has been poor but he will like this course and can get in the mix.  Gregory Haveret is another who looks decent value, he likes Dubai and finished 2nd last week and 80/1 is fair enough.

It is hard to separate the favourites this week but I do like Mcilroy.  He has everything going for him here and 6/1 coming of a win is a good price.  I maybe would have had him as the favourite and he is worth a bet.

Quiros at 40/1 has to be a pick.  He has the game, recent form and course form and looks the value.

Colsaerts is my final pick.  125/1 looks a little big.  It will be tough for him to win in this caliber of field but he is well capable of a place in a limited field where you still get a 1/4 odds 1st to 5th.

One to maybe be against is Louis Oosthuizen.  He withdrew from the pro am with a knee problem and Geoff Banks has him matched up with a solid performer in Peter Hanson.  10/11 Hanson in a 72 hole match bet would have been tempting anyway, with a little advantage make it a bet.

 All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks - www.geoff-banks.com

Dubai World Championships

4pts Rory Mcilroy @ 6/1
1.5 pts each way Alvaro Quiros @ 40/1
1 pt each way Nicolas Colsaerts @ 125/1

Special Bets

6 pts Peter Hanson to beat Louis Oosthuizen @ 10/11

2011 running total +303.92 pts This weeks investment 15 pts

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register’.

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
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