UA-33754892-1 Archives for 04 August 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Northern Trust

The Northern Trust

This is a really trappy betting heat. There is currently no stand out player that the rest have to take aim for. I know many think Brooks is, and I am becoming more and more persuaded that perhaps they are right, but it is too early to say for sure. There is no doubt he is the best closer out there, and he has an exceptional mental edge over his current rivals, but we have seen short term runs like this where we were convinced we had seen the future of golf. Spieth was for a while, as was Matsuayma, Day, Thomas and the list goes on. Guys like Rory, Rose and Dustin are certainly proven over a longer period, but aren’t as cut throat when it comes to closing an event out. Tiger is still the only one I have seen with both the physical and mental edge over all his rivals.

It is strange I say this as I followed him throughout his Challenge Tour career, followed him through his European Tour career and thought he continued to be underrated when starting out on the PGA Tour. I was waiting for him to show the world what he was capable of, and now he has I am doubting him! We have been paid handsomely by backing Koepka. We had him before the off at 33/1 ( I think it was) and 100/1 after round 1 when he won his first US Open. We also had him at 50/1 when winning in Phoenix. So why jump off the band wagon now he appears to have the golfing world at his feet? I mean, a solid finish to the year will see him earn over $30m in prize money and bonus’ excluding endorsements. Why shouldn't we profit too?

Well, the answer to this is we don’t know how much he wants it. He talked when playing the Challenge Tour how little he enjoyed playing golf. The members at Medalist will tell you he prefers a whisky and coke to practice. He gets it ready for Majors but not anything else. So, we see a lot of bad or average which we never saw with Woods. He is hard to trust and believe in, which is something you need when you see the prices he goes off at. I would rather back him in week 2 or 3 of these playoffs rather than week 1, we just don’t know what he has been doing or how he has been preparing.

In fairness I could throw a blanket across the top of this market. I would be betting

12/1 Dustin
14/1 Rory
16/1 Thomas
16/1 Rahm
16/1 Rose
20/1 Koepka
20/1 Fowler
20/1 Fleetwood

The best value then looks to be betting Dustin who is 18/1 with the books. Problem is he was trying different putting grips and putters, wedges and woods last at the St Jude. Hard to fancy until he finds something with the putter again.

In fact, I am going to look away from the win market all together. I can’t see a price I really like or a player that has an exceptional chance.

Instead I am going to back two players who look generously priced in the ‘top’ markets. Both are strong players whose strengths lie in different areas of the game, and both need to putt better to contend.

First up is Tyrrell Hatton. He finished 6th at The Open and despite appearing to struggle this season he has actually posted some decent results. 146th in putting is something you would really not associate with him but his short game continues to thrive. He is clearly playing better and if he can make a few could get in the mix here.

Abraham Ancer had a 4th at the Quicken Loans, finished 5th in Canada and 7th in the Dell. More recently he finished 8th at The Travellers with rounds of 64-73-70-63. He missed the cut in The Open by one and same again at the Wyndham las week. He is playing better than those two missed cuts and seems priced based on those. For a guy who ranks 6th in SG Driving playing a course where good driving is rewarded, 15/2 a top 20 is a cracking price.

The Northern Trust

To Win

No bet

Top 5

0.25 units Tyrrell Hatton @ 22/1 (-0.25)

Top 10

0.5 units Tyrrell Hatton @ 10/1 (-0.5)
0.25 units Abraham Ancer @ 18/1 (+4.5)

Top 20

0.75 units Abraham Ancer @ 15/2 (+5.63)

This week's P&L = +9.38
This week’s investment = 1.75 units

This week's Outright P&L = +9.38
This weeks's Outright Investment = 1.75 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = 0
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 1.75 units

2019 Total P&L = +33.72 units

2019 Total Investment = 602.08 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +11.5 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 471.75 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +22.22 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 132.98 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • • ETC.