UA-33754892-1 Archives for 03 January 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW South African Open and Hyundai Tournament of Champions

Hyundai Tournament of Champions - Outrights
1 point each way Graeme McDowell @ 25/1 (-2 points)

Hyundai Tournament of Champions - Outright
1 point each way Kevin Kisner @ 22/1 (Bet Victor and Stan James) (-2 points)

Hyundai Tournament of Champions - 72 Hole Matches
4 points Jimmy Walker @ Evs to beat JB Holmes (Bet Victor) (+4 points)

Hyundai Tournament of Champions - Round 1 Two Balls
3 points Jimmy Walker @ 6/5 to beat JB Holmes (General) (-3 points)

Hyundai Tournament of Champions - Round 1 18 Hole Matches
2 points James Hahn @ 23/20 to beat David Lingmerth - (BET365) (-2 points)

Hyundai Tournament of Champions - Round Two, 18 hole matches - Tees off 22.10
3 points Patrick Reed to beat Bubba Watson @ 10/11 (Bet365) (-3 points)

Hyundai Tournament Champions - 4th Round 2 Balls.
2 points Danny Lee @21/20 to beat David Lingmerth (-2 points)
2 points Reed @ 4/6 to beat Snedeker (-2 points)
2 points Spieth @ 4/6 to beat Koepka (+1.33 points)

Hyundai Tournament of Champions - 4th Round Matchups
2 points Rickie Fowler Evs to beat Dustin Johnson (+2 points)
2 points Danny Lee @ Evs to beat Lingmerth (-2 points)


South African Open - Outrights

1 point each way Jason Scrivener @ 55/1 (-2 points)
0.75 points each way Sebastien Gros @ 50/1 (-1.5 points)
0.5 points each way Thomas Linard @ 80/1 (100/1 with Sky Bet) (-1 points)
0.25 points each way Rhys West @ 300/1 (-0.5 points)

South African Open - Specials
1 point Rhys West to finish top 10 @ 25/1 (Paddy Power) (-1 point)
1 point Rhys West to finish top 20 @ 9/1 (Generally) (-1 point)


South African Open - Round 1 Three balls
2 points Jorge Campillo @ 7/4 to beat Norris and Mulroy (-2 points)
2 points Gary Stal @ 6/5 to beat Blaauw and Van Den Berg (-0.57 points)

This weeks P&L = -18.24 points
This week’s investment = 37 points

2016 Total P&L = -18.24 points
2016 Total Investment = 37 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L = -9 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 9 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L = -11.24 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 28 points


2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +465.99 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.





During last season I was reluctant to put up match bets, three balls, specials etc. as they are not necessarily available to all. Often people only want to bet with one firm as it is a hobby and they do not want to manage multiple accounts, or they don't worry too much about getting the best price. There appears to be enough demand to reintroduce these bets so I am more than happy to share them. I apologise to those who can't get on. If you are going to open another account I would recommend BET365 as I take a lot of the 18 hole match bets from them.

In regard to the odds I will generally pick prices available with bookies that will lay a decent bet and are, dare I say it, 'household names' or more commonly known as 'high street bookies'. I won't just pick a standout price, which is often wrong and won't be available long, especially with the small firms. Picking the standout prices may flatter my record but doesn't do anyone any favours in the long run. I understand a lot of tipsters happily practice this method, but I see it as a pointless exercise if people can't back the picks at available prices. A practice I have always used with my outright selections too.

Another thing to consider if you are going to follow this advice is your weekly investment will increase substantially. Matches and specials have been profitable each of the six years I have been betting them, so hopefully the turnover will make the added investment viable, but it won't be for everyone. Small stakes for potentially large returns on the outrights are definitely enough of any interest for many punters, and less stressful!!

I will keep separate records for the outright and the matches/specials to remain inclusive to all.

Best of luck!

JK




Happy New year to you all, I hope you had a great Christmas and here's to a huge 2016.

South African Open

The top two in the market, Grace (5/1) and Sullivan (8/1) look very difficult to beat on a course they both like and have been in great form. However, they both come back from a short and much needed break and may be a little rusty. At the prices they look worth taking on.

I think Jason Scrivener looks a good option to take them on with. He earned his card at Q School this year with 5 birdies on the back 9 to come from nowhere to finish 18th. He has backed that form up with a 3rd in Hong Kong and 27th in the Dunhill and 28th in the Australian PGA. Australia is the country he represents but the 25 year old was born in South Africa was bought up in Zimbabwe until the age of 10. He is a solid player and will come into this having played more than most and is in solid form. At 55/1 he is worth a few pounds. He finished 11th here last year with rounds of 73-72-66-71, he is a more established and confident player now.

I am also going to take a chance with two other rookies, both from France, Sebastien Gros and Thomas Linard. They are good friends and both had very good seasons on the Challenge Tour last year. Gros is very long and when the putter behaves has the ability to go very low. Linard is not blessed with as much natural ability but has learnt to be competitive consistently. They finished 4th and 5th respectively at the Dunhill Champs pre Christmas in SA and much of my speculation is based around that showing. They have been in the sun this Christmas so should be ready to go.

My final pick is a classic longshot. Rhys West is playing his home course this week, a course he finished 25th on last year when opening with a poor 75. He finished 18th at Leopard Creek and looks in decent form. A lot of his Sunshine Tour winter form has been poor but he did also finish 10th in the Africa Open at the start of 2015. He clearly has some ability and with home course advantage 300/1 looks worth a punt. He is also 25/1 with Paddy Power for a top 10 and 9/1 for a top 20 generally.

Hyundai Tournament of Champions

This is a seriously competitive and difficult betting heat. It would be easy to make arguments for and against so many of these. Jason Day has never finished outside the top 10 here and rarely did last season but is coming back from a very long break. Spieth has been competitive recently but 5/1 looks a little short in a quality line up. Dustin Johnson is hit and miss and although his form here (9-dnp-1-6-dnp-5) is definitely more hit than miss he continues to be hard to predict and 8/1 is risky. Watson can win anytime, anywhere and comes to Hawaii off an impressive win pre Christmas in Tiger's Tournament but his course form of 25-18-4-dnp-10-14 doesn't inspire confidence at 10/1. Reed defends here and has been ultra consistent for months all around the globe, 10/1 appears to be a fairly accurate reflection of his chances and he will once again give his backers a run for their money.

I am going to take them all on with a fairly unlikely pick. On a course that favours long hitters I am going to pick Graeme McDowell at 25/1. Although it favours long hitters, good wedge players and putters are rewarded too. He has one start here and finished 3rd in 2011. His win in the OHL was played in fairly similar conditions on a course with lots of wedges and greens with a lot of grain. If the wind blows it will favour him even more and there is no doubt through his interviews that he is ready and hungry.

18 hole and 72 hole matches and specials will be up tomorrow, if there are any that stand out.

Hyundai Tournament of Champions - Outright
I've added an outright selection in Kevin Kisner. I was very tempted with him when doing the initial write up but he was a best price of 18/1. I thought this was fair, but as he has been pushed out to 22/1 as money comes in for McDowell, Koepka (strange as he has switched to Nike which is historically catastrophic, at least in the short term) and Walker. I think he is worth having on side at this price as he is ultra consistent and although on debut here, looks sure to go well. He is a very disciplined, consistent player who learns new venues quickly, like HSBC in China last year. He is a great putter who likes the grain.

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