UA-33754892-1 Archives for 03 August 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

USPGA Championship Day 3

USPGA Championships Day 3

0.5 points each way Jimmy Walker @ 200/1 (1/5 1-4)
(-1 points)

1.5 points Jimmy Walker to finish in the top 10 @ 11/2 (+5 points)

(Already Advised)

USPGA Championships

1 point each way Kevin Na @ 150/1 (-2 points)
1 point each way Ryan Moore @ 66/1 (-2 points)
1 point each way Zach Johnson @ 70/1(-2 points)
0.5 points each way John Senden @ 200/1 (-1 point)

Special Bets

1 point Kevin Na to finish top 20 @ 11/2 (-1 point)

2014 running total =  -15.66 points. This week’s investment 9.5 points. This weeks P&L = - 4 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

The USPGA Championship

The 2014 Major season has flown by. It is hard to believe it’s the final Major of the season this week and the long wait to Augusta will begin again.

Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville hosts the 96th edition of the USPGA. It also hosted in 1996 (Mark Brooks) and 2000 (Tiger Woods). It was also the venue for the 2008 Ryder Cup. It’s a 7458 yard par 71 designed by Jack Nicklaus. Therefore we know the challenge. It will be fairly lenient from the tee, the real challenge will begin in the approach shots where one will have to hit the correct section of the green in order not to be left with devilish long putts or seriously tough chip shots. There is a huge emphasis on accurate iron play, confident putting and exceptional short games. Hence Tiger’s success here and at other Nicklaus courses like Muirfield Village. In fact it offers a similar test to last year’s USPGA when Dufner won. He lead scrambling on the week and ranked 3rd in greens. Outside of that he did not feature in the top 10 of any other major stat category.

One of the exciting things about the USPGA is the link to in form players. Each of the last 10 winners finished top 25 the week before and 5 recorded top 5s in their previous start. When you look at the names that make that list it is impressive reading. Add to that the form of the world’s top players and we could be in for an epic. It is not ideal for us that the short priced players are performing week in week out, but it is good for the game. It is a real contrast to the start of the season when nobody in the world’s top 10 could win a tournament. We, however, may have to ignore the trend to find some value. There is, like most of the last year and a half, very few lesser names really over performing or having the season’s of their life, with any sort of consistency. A few have threatened, but the established players have been the ruling the roost.

Here are my top 20 in order. Scott 12/1, Sergio 18/1, Bubba 35/1, Rory 11/2, Kuchar 30/1, Rose 18/1, Zach Johnson 70/1, Keegan Bradley 30/1, Ryan Moore 66/1, Na 150/1, Senden 200/1, McDowell 40/1, DeLaet 125/1, Walker 55/1, Charles Howell III 200/1, English 100/1, Kokrak 250/1, Todd 125/1, Stroud 300/1 and Ben Martin 250/1.

Todd can come out first. His approach play last week was extremely poor and his numbers took a real hit. He still putted nicely and ranks highly in scrambling but a new low rank of 109 in greens hit is off putting. He is a decent price at 125/1 but he looks to be on the slide.

Stroud looks a huge price on first glance but a more in depth look shows he has played the 6th easiest schedule of the year and therefore his stats are flattered enormously. If anyone is interested, Furyk has played the toughest schedule. He makes too few birdies, putts pretty averagely and struggles to close and therefore has been left alone most of the year. 40/1 has little appeal on a Nicklaus lay out.

Ben Martin is big at 250/1 and has played well in some decent events this year. He definitely looks like one to keep an eye on. He has played a fair schedule but does not really shine in any one category. He ranks between 25th and 72nd in every stat which shows how complete he is as a golfer, but to win this at least one part of his game is going to have to take a huge jump. He will probably have a solid week but will do well to get into contention.

Jason Kokrak does have a weapon, he is long. This could set up for him quite well but and at 250/1 is worth a look. The fact he hasn’t played since The Players is a serious worry so best left alone on his return from surgery.

If you took Harris English’s early season form and his form from late 2013, and then see 100/1 next to his name would make him an incredible bet, but he has kind of fizzled out as the season has gone on. 8th in greens still makes him of interest. For me it is a concern that Muirfield Village has not been on his schedule for 2 years, suggesting perhaps a dislike of Nicklaus courses after shooting 80+ in both weekend rounds. He will appreciate the bent grass greens but 105th in putting and 90th in scrambling is the nail in the ‘backing English coffin’ for this week.

Charles Howell III could be a player this week but he will need to regain his putting. When contending regularly at the start of the season he ranked inside the top 15 in putting, he now ranks 90th. That is the only change and he will appreciate bent greens. He hasn’t had a top 10 since May but has shot some good numbers since, like at the John Deere where he started 66,68,67 before a closing 72 saw him slip from 11th to 23rd. He could show up and may be worth chancing at a nice price, despite being a one dimensional drawer on a Nicklaus course. You have to work it both ways at Valhalla they say, but Mark Brooks did ok with his slinging hook in ’96.

Jimmy Walker is long, putting great and a birdie machine. A three time winner with 5 other top 10s who is leading the FedEx Cup is available to back at 55/1. Seems pretty generous, I would make him 40/1. He does, however, have nothing better than 26th in his last four starts. He also chose to miss The Memorial this year after two poor efforts there. He could be a player here, but he would have to find a fair bit to compete once more with the top players who are in such good form. His wins were not against the strongest fields. But any player who hits it as long as he does and putts so well is never without a chance. Certainly worth considering.

Graham DeLaet withdrew last week after three rounds due to flu. He looked good through two rounds but the illness caught up with him in a third round 76. How well is he now? How has his prep been affected? Who knows but sometimes a players lessened expectations can be beneficial. I like him again this week and am prepared to consider chancing him despite the flu. Westwood won the World Matchplay at Wentworth playing 36 holes a day with the flu, it can be done. His iron play is absolutely top notch, ranking 3rd in greens hit. He also bagged a 7th place finish in his home Open. He appears to be coming in to form towards the end of the season like last year. He makes the shortlist at 125/1.

G-Mac has fallen from 1st in putting to 5th over the last two weeks. This is a consequence of better ball striking it looks like and statistically he continues to get stronger. He is similar to Furyk, a tough test will always suit them better and that is reflected in his schedule. His driving has really improved over the last few weeks but I make the 40/1 chance 40/1 so there is no real margin and I just don’t really fancy him on this course.

John Senden continues to slowly slip statistically. The stats are still good enough to contend though. 27th in greens, 11th in putting and 10th in the vital bogey avoidance ranking, a very underestimated stat. His form recently is not fantastic but he is a winner this year and 200/1 looks way too big. His middle two rounds of 66, 67 on route to finishing 26th at Firestone show he is not far away. Has to be worth a play at the price.

Kevin Na may well be my bet of the week at the prices. He lost in a playoff at The Memorial and closed with 66,67 last week. 150/1 is beautiful. I’d have him at 50/1. He ranks 27th in putting, 2nd in scrambling, 15th in scoring, 24th in birdies and 1st in bogey avoidance. It makes you wonder how he can be such a big price. That’s all on a fairly tough schedule. He is a definite bet at 150/1.

Ryan Moore hasn’t played the toughest schedule on Tour, he is pretty much dead on average. 14th in driving accuracy is not a huge asset here but helps. 9th in greens, 12th in birdies and 22nd in proximity are good assets. The real head turner with Moore is form figures of 5-7-12-8 in his last 4 starting and including The Open. We mentioned how desirable recent form is for the USPGA and Moore has it. 66/1 is certainly fair and he is hard not to back this week.

There is nothing not to like about Keegan Bradley’s chances this week apart from the price. I said months ago that I thought Keegan was about to explode into form after a very slow start to the season, his stats were so progressive, and indeed he has. Three top 4s in his last 6 including a 4th last week - he fits the aforementioned form trend perfectly. His stats are solid throughout, perhaps showing despite his nervy mannerisms, that he is in the top 5 most complete players in golf right now. However, despite ticking every box in a big, bold tick and being a past champion with USPGA form of 1-3-19; I can’t back him at 30/1 when I make him a 33/1 chance.

There is also a lot to like about Zach Johnson. It is rare to see him go off bigger than 50/1 in any event but you can back him at 70/1 this week. I would have him at 40/1. He finished 2nd in the John Deere three starts ago and 23rd last week. His 47th in The Open was out of the wrong side of the draw. His USPGA form reads 10-3-59-70-8. He ranks 8th in driving accuracy, 17th in greens and 7th in bogey avoidance. His season form is good and 70/1 is too big to be ignored.

Justin Rose is simply way too short at 18/1. His stats are fine and form is good but I would have him at 25/1, not 18/1. His driving is questionable, his putting is better than previous seasons but I don’t see how he is a similar price to Scott and Garcia.

Kuchar I would make 30/1 and he is 30/1. I think he will have a big week despite his iron play being the weakest part of his game at the moment. There is no margin in his price but, as I said last week, his consistency is one of the most underrated qualities or achievements in golf. He is also one of the most progressive players statistically this season, he appears to be peaking, but as I said, inspite of how much I rate him, I can’t back him at the price. I would have loved to have backed him and Bradley.

Rory has a very obvious chance and will have added swagger after regaining his world number 1 spot after winning The Open and the WGC Bridgestone back to back. I like Paddy Powers comment of “Rory’s confidence must be higher than Dustin Johnson right now!” I said last week I couldn’t put Rory in the ‘great’ category as he was too inconsistent.... then he goes and wins back to back. Ok, he is a great player. The reason he is inconsistent is because his short game is not that great. When he has days that he misses greens he drops a lot of shots. He ranks 145th in scrambling and that’s why I could never take 11/2 about him. Sure, if he plays like he did at The Open and at Firestone he will probably win but if he has an off day he can still rack up a number. When Woods was at his height he could have an off day and still get it around in a competitive score. Rory does not have this quality yet. The way he is driving the ball right now is incredible and last week he was gaining on average of 2 hots per round on the field from the tee. He is also averaging almost 5 birdies per round. It is the thing that is separating him from the rest. But I would still rather be a layer than a backer at the price.

Bubba, as we all know has the ability to win this and if he is in the mood, probably will. But it is very hard to get Bubba at the right time, sometimes he just doesn’t fancy it. He seemed to hate being at The Open, he missed the cut at The US Open but some of his play in the middle of the season was absolutely top notch. He has already mouthed off this week about a long drive competition and seems a little agitated. Therefore, despite his impressive stats, strong season form and some value in the price I am going to leave him alone. You can back him at 35/1, I make him 25/1. His strongest asset scoring wise is his normally very high percentage of greens in regulation. He is 23rd in that stat this year, I would only want to back him when he is in the top 5 of that stat and is clearly settled.

I would rate Sergio as a 14/1 chance and you can back him at 18/1. That is a very fair chunk of value. His stats are incredible. 4th in greens, 15th in putting, 4th in scrambling, 1st in scoring, 5th in birdies, 2nd in bogey avoidance and the third best form in the field. All achieved on a tough schedule of events. His recent form is 2-12-4-2. Surely, surely he is going to win something big soon. He deserves it and the golf fans need it. His USPGA form is not up to much recently but he is a hell of a player with no weakness apart from closing out. If I had to lump on a player it would be Garcia each way but that would mean backing nobody else. How many hits (mental hits from not crossing the line, not shots) can one player take. I think he will be in the mix and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him, but he would lopside the staking plan too much this week and you would want to perhaps be with someone who finds winning a little easier at the price.

Scott I still think is the best player in the field, however it is now just marginally from Garcia. He is 12/1, I would have him at just about 14/1. His win conversion rate this season considering his stats and the amount of times he has been in the mix is disappointing. A 12/1 chance has to find winning fairly easy if he is to be backed. With so many top players playing so well it is always going to be hard to back a short one.

If you want to back the winner this week I would suggest picking one or all of Rory, Scott and Sergio. If you want a couple of fairly safe each way bets then back Kuchar and Bradley. If you want to back players who represent good value that should lead to long term profit back Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na and John Senden.

USPGA Championships

1 point each way Kevin Na @ 150/1
1 point each way Ryan Moore @ 66/1
1 point each way Zach Johnson @ 70/1

0.5 points each way John Senden @ 200/1

Special Bets

1 point Kevin Na to finish top 20 @ 11/2

2014 running total =  -15.66 points. This week’s investment 7 points. This weeks P&L =

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.