UA-33754892-1 Archives for 03 April 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Masters

The Masters - Outright
1.5 points each way Adam Scott @ 12/1 (1/4 1-8) (-3)

The Masters - Specials
1 point each way Jin Cheng @ 5/1 to be Top Amateur (1/3 1-2) (-2)

The Masters - In Running
0.5 points each way Danny Willett @ 50/1 (1/4 1-3) (+31.25)
0.5 points each way Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 125/1 (1/4 1-3) (-1)

The Masters - Day 3 Two Balls
2 points Rafael Cabrera Bello @ 21/20 to beat Poulter (+2.1)
(I also like Haas to beat Mize 1/2, Scott to beat Hoffman 6/10, Rose to beat Donaldson 8/13 and Walker to beat Love @ 4/6 but don't like the prices.)

The Masters - Final Day Two Balls
2 points Cameron Smith to beat Romain Langasque @ 19/20 (-2)
(I also like Rose to beat Cabrera but not at 6/10)

The Masters - Final Day Outright in Running
2.5 points Jordan Spieth @ 7/5 (-2.5)
1 point each way Smylie Kaufman @ 14/1 (1/5 1-3) (-2)




This week's P&L = +22.85
This week’s investment = 32.5 points

This week's Outright P&L = -3
This weeks's Outright Investment = 3 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +25.85
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 29.5 points


2016 Total P&L = -82.32 points
2016 Total Investment =  600 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  -61.45 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 104.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -21.14 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 495.5 points



The Masters 2016

The Masters is a funny Major. It is always the most anticipated, it is always the most beautiful and it's also the most easy to win. I say the easiest to win as it is the smallest and the weakest field of any Major. One could argue that winning The Players Championship is a greater achievement then winning The Masters, but I know which one I would rather win!

The 80th Masters looks a very open affair. It is the smallest field for a decade but it is competitive up the top with no stand out favourite. As I said last week, I like a strong favourite in the field as it generally offers a little value further down. A 6/4 favourite here would make a lot of these players more appetising to back each way, instead of having to separate maybe 10 guys at win only prices that are very closely grouped.

So lets have a look. Most people that I speak to suggest long hitters and good putters do well at Augusta. Well, they can do, but if you go through the results year in year out there is nothing to support that you have to be long or be a good putter.
Tim Clark, Langer, Zach Johnson, Donald, Choi, Kuchar, Poulter, Snedeker, Jimenez, Spieth, etc have all had top 5's here over the last few years. They are not known for their long hitting by any means. Schwartzel, Scott, Cabrera, Westwood, Oosthuizen, Rose, McIlroy, Bubba, Matsuyama have all posted top 5's too, but they are not renowned putters.

So what are well looking for? Well, the one thing the majority of players who go well at Augusta have in common is they are good iron players. So many pins at Augusta are stuck on ledges and getting to them is tricky. If you miss them in the wrong place the result will be worse than tricky, it can be almost impossible.

So there is some value in being long, it means shorter clubs in to the greens so more chance of getting the approach where you need it to be. There is also some value in being a good putter as it can get you out of trouble when the approach goes wrong, as well as allowing you to capitalise on when the approaches go well. But over 72 holes the thing that will separate these players is the consistent quality of the approach shots.

It is not just the physical ability of hitting the approach shots, it is also the knowledge and decision making of where to hit the approach to certain hole locations. This is something that generally only comes with experience of Augusta National, although over recent years debutants have repeatedly come closer to bucking this trend.

So, what we are looking for is a strong iron player with Augusta experience who preferably hits it longer than average and holes out well. Well there's a few of those in the line up!

Another thing to consider is the weather. There is forecasted rain on Thursday morning which should clear in time for the afternoon starters, leaving windy and cool conditions through Saturday and then a pleasant Sunday. This could favour the shorter hitters if anything.

Lets have a loot at the market leaders.

Jason Day is the 7/1 favourite. He comes into this with back to back wins. Only two players have won a green jacket when winning their previous two starts, Nicklaus and Woods…. big shoes to fill! However, out of all the current players he appears the most complete. He drives it long, if not always so straight. He is a decent iron player who has the ability to hit it incredibly high, which is an advantage at Augusta, but perhaps not so much if the wind blows. His short game is average but with only light rough in places this isn't a huge deal and he is a great putter, which will serve him well.

His form at Augusta is a little in and out but when you consider he is world number one, won the last Major played and has won four times since that win; he is a worthy favourite. Is he value at 7/1? Well, he has ok course form, great season form, the best predicted form but statistically there are question marks. 35th in scoring average, 65th in greens in regulation, 210th in proximity, 69th in scrambling. A lot of these average numbers are a result of a poor start to the season after a long winter break. One has to think he will be in the mix on Sunday but at 7/1 he is not for me.

Rory is up next at 8/1. When considering that a player has to win this to complete the career Grand Slam before the age of 30 surely 8/1 is value no matter what? Well, Rory is in a strange situation at the moment. Last year he was hot property, clearly the unrivalled future of golf. He was cruising. That is not the case now, he is no longer golf's golden boy and all of a sudden he is fighting to keep up. Day has eased past him, Spieth has moved past him and Fowler, amongst others, are a further threat. Those three are all winning and Rory seems to find winning harder and harder and the pressure is only building. When we look at Rory's wins they tend to come when he builds a comfortable lead over the first three rounds or when charging from behind with little expectation or pressure on him. He is unlikely to get an easy lead here. It is incredible that this is his 8th Masters already.

Rory lacks consistency and this is a result of an average short game, wayward driving and a cold putter. He ranks 145th in driving accuracy, which is no surprise with his length. He ranks a much improved 33rd in scrambling but still a lowly 107th in sand saves. 94th in putting is the real killer and although his long putting is ok, even cross handed he looks uncomfortable over the short ones. As good as Rory is, and as much as this suits his game, and as much as he wants to win this week, I just don't think he looks close enough to his best to be bet at 8/1.

Next up,
Jordan Spieth, the defending champion and the mid range putting master. He also has a pretty good short game (1st in strokes gained short game at Houston last week) to compliment that 10-30 foot putting genius. When Spieth won last year he made 28 birdies and dropped 10 to finish -18. He ranked 2nd in greens in regulation and 1st in putts per green in regulation. I think it is pretty clear he is not on top of his game but even so he is still competitive. Statistically the only real reason for his average form is his iron play, 167th in greens in regulation makes life difficult, no matter how good you chip and putt. His grit and determination will keep him in this but it is tough to win when you are fighting faults and I can't see him fixing this in just a couple of days. 10/1 seems a little risky about a player who's not quite on his game, but he is hard to write off.

Bubba Watson has won this twice and looks to have a very decent chance to win for a third time. He is long, hits the right to left shape that tends to suit around here, leads greens in regulation on the PGA Tour once again and remains, in my opinion, physically the best player in the world with more ability and talent than anyone. If he is interested and things go his way he will probably win this. The problem is his attitude. If it doesn't go his way or he is a little unhappy he can get frustrated and throw this away very quickly, if it captures his interest he can blow them away. His strokes gained tee to green numbers are incredible and there's a chance he would not even have to putt great to get this done. Another thing on his side is his win patterns at Augusta. He has won the last two even-numbered years. A thing against him is his inconsistency at Augusta. Outside his two wins he has one other top 30 (20th in 2008). 12/1 is a fair price although he may not like the wind.

Adam Scott is the most likely winner according to my figures. He won here in 2013 and has two wins and a 2nd in his last 4 starts. One can almost dismiss the matchplay as he actually played pretty good in a bad format. When you look through the stats the quality of his golf has been remarkable. 11th in driving distance, 7th in greens in regulation, 2nd in strokes gained tee to green, 42nd in putting, 1st strokes gained total, 1st in eagles, 3rd in birdies, 2nd in scoring average. The two stats I really like for Augusta are 4th in going for the green on par 5's and 1st in greens hit when going for it. The par 5's are where you do the damage at Augusta, the par 3's and 4's you just try to hang on (2nd in par 3 performance and 26th par 4 performance). He may not be as tough as a Day or Spieth but he has the course form, the current form and the ability to win again. I think he can ride the good momentum he has built up and 12/1 seems a fair price, not huge value, but fair as he is the most likely.

Ricky Fowler is a 16/1 chance. He is the first player we have talked about who has not already won a Major. He does, however, posses a decent Major record. He's finished 4th and 12th the last two years at Augusta and last week lead greens in regulation at the Shell Houston Open. For the season he ranks 2nd in greens in regulation, 6th in strokes gained tee to green, 3rd in strokes gained total, 3rd in scoring, 27th in putting and 1st in the all around. He has had 6 top 10's in 2016 and looks ready to get off the mark in The Majors. It is still hard to believe he is 16/1 with so much quality around him.

Outside of these we have
Dustin Johnson who is trending in the right direction. His putting improved a lot in Houston where he lead the field in the category and this completed a good Augusta run up with top 5s in 3 of his last 4. He only has one top 10 in 6 tries at Augusta but looks to fit the Augusta profile nicely. At 18/1 there appears to be better options although he is not without a chance.

Phil Mickelson loves Augusta and has three green jackets and 11 top 5s. He has three top 5s this season and is playing better coming into this than he has for quite a few years. The work with his new coach has progressed nicely and he looks ready to give a good account of himself once again. He is 45 years old now so this would be up there with Jack's win in '86 but his stats show he is still plenty good enough. 20/1 is a little short for a player who has not won since The Open in 2013.

Justin Rose finished 2nd here last year, his best finish in 10 attempts. He has three top 5s in total. Good numbers and although he hasn't set the world alight this year he has been solid. His stats are good. He is 25/1 and for me if he did win it would feel like a surprise winner, which surely means he shouldn't be a 25/1 chance. Nothing on paper discounts him, in fact it all looks quite good, I just don't fancy him. I'll give his 84th in putting as my official reason, but he putts better at Augusta, he had a tournament low 26 putts in his third round 67 last year.

Henrik Stenson at 25/1, he's a great player, but has never had a top 10 in 10 starts at Augusta. Statistically he has a big chance and form wise he is right there, but with no top 10's on the course makes him hard to back.

Outside of these I would suggest any added warmth to
Matsuyama's putter would see him go close at 40/1. His long game is very strong and he finished 5th last year with a closing bogey free 66 and won Phoenix a few weeks ago in a playoff against Rickie Fowler, who is just 16/1. Of the real outsiders I would throw Rafa Cabrera Bello in there at 100/1. He is rolling hot of late, 14-2-2-36-11-3-4 in his last 7 starts worldwide since Abu Dhabi. His short game is improved, his long game is impressive and his confidence is high. The odds are against him on debut but there is some value in the price.

Here's how my simulations predict the tournament unfolding. This also shows you just how tight this event is, not much to separate them.


Price
Player
Predicted Score
12
Adam Scott
-9
7
Jason Day
-8
9
Jordan Spieth
-8
12
Bubba Watson
-7
18
Rickie Fowler
-7
8
Rory McIlroy
-7
110
Rafael Cabrera Bello
-7
25
Henrik Stenson
-6
18
Phil Mickelson
-6
25
Justin Rose
-6
18
Dustin Johnson
-6
66
Danny Willett
-6
35
Charl Schwartzel
-5
40
Hideki Matsuyama
-5
60
Sergio Garcia
-5
80
Jimmy Walker
-5
66
Marc Leishman
-4
66
Paul Casey
-4
30
Louis Oosthuizen
-4
750
Jin Cheng
-4
60
Matt Kuchar
-4
70
Brooks Koepka
-4
110
Bill Haas
-3
125
Kevin Na
-3
110
Justin Thomas
-3
250
Bryson DeChambeau
-3
250
Smylie Kaufman
-3
200
Bernd Wiesberger
-3
66
Branden Grace
-3
60
Zach Johnson
-3
90
Ryan Moore
-3
125
Kevin Kisner
-3
140
Byeong-Hun An
-3
60
Brandt Snedeker
-3
300
Thongchai Jaidee
-2
45
Patrick Reed
-2
250
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
-2
125
Jason Dufner
-2
150
Billy Horschel
-2
225
Daniel Berger
-2
140
Charley Hoffman
-2
250
Chris Wood
-2
250
Matthew Fitzpatrick
-2
200
Russell Knox
-2
175
Lee Westwood
-2
140
Andy Sullivan
-2
150
J B Holmes
-1
175
Emiliano Grillo
-1
 
Luke Donald
-1
175
Jamie Donaldson
-1
350
Vaughn Taylor
-1
175
Webb Simpson
-1
175
Harris English
-1
400
Soren Kjeldsen
-1
200
Chris Kirk
-1
140
Ian Poulter
-1
250
David Lingmerth
-1
350
Jim Herman
-1
175
Scott Piercy
-1
140
Shane Lowry
-1
175
Graeme McDowell
-1
350
Troy Merritt
0
500
Bernhard Langer
0
175
Danny Lee
0
600
Romain Langasque
0
1500
Derek Bard
0
2500
Paul Chaplet
0
2500
Sammy Schmitz
0
500
Fabian Gomez
0
200
Martin Kaymer
0
250
Anirban Lahiri
0
200
Keegan Bradley
0
225
Victor Dubuisson
0
250
Kevin Streelman
0
350
Cameron Smith
1
200
Hunter Mahan
1
275
Ernie Els
1
275
Fred Couples
2
400
Vijay Singh
2
250
Angel Cabrera
2
500
Davis Love III
3
2000
Mark OMeara
4
1250
Trevor Immelman
4
300
Robert Streb
4
1000
Darren Clarke
6
7500
Larry Mize
7
750
Steven Bowditch
7
5000
Sandy Lyle
12
5000
Ian Woosnam
12
2500
Tom Watson
14
2500
Mike Weir
15

To be honest I don't really fancy a bet. There's nothing that stands out as particularly good value or clear cut. Even going through the specials, 3 balls, 72 holers etc there's nothing. It's so trappy and competitive. All the top guys are playing good and the guys in behind either lack the ability to beat them or they are out of form. The top guys are almost impossible to separate.

I will have one small play in the top amateur market. We know
Bryson DeChambeau is a fantastic prospect and has had a number of solid results in decent events this year. However, I think Jin Cheng is worth a little interest at 5/1. Those who follow my tips each week know I think the Thailand Golf Championship was a very strong event and he finished 11th there beating a lot of good players. Although the other events he has played are not as strong as Bryson's, he has recorded 6 top 10s in 18 starts on the PGA China Tour. He is only 18 and won the Asia Pacific Amateur to earn a spot here, but if he makes the cut he should be good for at least a place. (5/1 with bet365 1/3 odds 1-2 or 6/1 with betvictor 1/4 odds 1-2, the 5/1 works out better for a place).

I am also going to back
Adam Scott on the basis he has won this before, is in great form and is statistically as good as anyone. Also because the each way terms are so generous for a small field. Be careful who you bet with, many firms like Paddy Power and BetVictor have been sneaky and gone 1/5 the odds. Skybet, Stan James and Coral offer extra places with 1/4 odds. Skybet are 8 places so it is worthwhile shopping around for more than just the prices this week.

I am also tempted to back
Rickie Fowler. His stats fit the course the best, he's contended in Majors and the win at The Players last year was huge for him. If the forecast worsens or his price expands I may well step in. He's more prepared and a more complete player than this time last year and he loves the wind.

Sorry to be boring on a big week, but no point tipping them up just for the sake of it. There will be more 18 hole matches posted tomorrow, if anything stands out I will let you know. Once the tournament takes shape and we know how the weather is we can make some in play plays.


The Masters - Outright

1.5 points each way Adam Scott @ 12/1 (1/4 1-8)

The Masters - Specials

1 point each way Jin Cheng @ 5/1 to be Top Amateur (1/3 1-2)



This week's P&L = +22.85
This week’s investment = 32.5 points

This week's Outright P&L = -3
This weeks's Outright Investment = 3 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +25.85
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 29.5 points


2016 Total P&L = -82.32 points

2016 Total Investment =  600 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  -61.45 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 104.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -21.14 points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 495.5 points
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