UA-33754892-1 Archives for 02 September 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Championship and KLM Open

Last week was littered with errors, but it could have been a lot worse. I was very close to putting Rory in and didn’t. I also tipped Jimenez as I assumed his off course issues were over but they weren’t. His only pre tournament practice was in the pro am. He opened with a 77 before playing the last 54 holes in -15, oh what could have been. All in recommended 13 points worth of bets and lost all 13.

But as I said, It could have been worse. We could have been on Senden who 4 putted the last from 4ft. But the biggest dodge of the week, comfortably, was Julian Quense. I heard he had new clubs, took all the French players money in practice with a bogey free -7 in and was very happy with his game. He was 300/1 and I considered having a cheap bet on him but looked through his season and just could not make myself do it. He finished bogey, bogey to finish 11th. If he hadn’t it would have been a very bitter pill to swallow.

Anyway, we lost all 13 points to slip back to 188.23 points in profit for the year, or £1882.30 to a £10 stake.

This week looks like a good week to bounce back. The KLM Open looks like a very decent European event and the BMW Championship is the third leg of the Fed Ex playoff, where Pete Dye’s Crooked Stick hosts 70 of the PGA Tour’s finest.

Miguel Angel Jimenez has to be the first to be considered in Holland. His final three rounds in Switzerland last week were eye-catching and 40/1 again for this week seems generous. There is not really that much in front of him in the betting either. You would have to think that Colsaerts (16/1) will suffer from a panicked schedule in an attempt cement a Ryder Cup place and with the goal achieved may run flat. Kaymer has great course form but no recent form and 20/1 is a bad price. Lynn is a laughable 20/1, absolutely no interest in that. Donaldson is the most dangerous at 22/1 and has been in great form. He should be favourite in my eyes. Peter Hanson (22/1) was 59th last week continuing some average form, Joost Luiten (22/1) has home advantage but no top 20’s since the first week in June, Simon Dyson (25/1) is the defending champion but has only one top ten this year (10th in the Irish Open in the first week in July), Andres Hanson justifies his 33/1 price as he has had a very solid year and Henrik Stenson (33/1) who MC’d last week and is unpredictably hot and cold. They make Miguel seem a tidy price.

So, what to do? Well, I like
Jamie Donaldson. His recent form is rock solid and will find this an easier test than top end stuff he has been playing. 36th at Firestone, 7th in the USPGA and was 9th in a very solid performance in Switzerland last week. He will fancy himself this week as last time he played the KLM in 2009 he finished 5th and, to use a horse racing phrase, this drop in class makes 22/1 seem very fair.

As for
Jimenez, we have determined 40/1 is a fair price but I still have my doubts. It is perhaps a tool to realise the others are just underpriced. If Jimenez had no off course worries and was 100% focused he would be a bet but I can’t help but feel his great putting last week was more down to knowing the greens inside out. I get a feel his red hot putter from last week may not be quite as hot this week.

There is money for the Dutch amateur
Daan Huizing. He won the Lytham Trophy by 11 and St Andrews Links by 14 this year, shooting a record 23 under at St Andrews. He made the cut last year in this but 150/1 looks very tight, steeping up massively in grade but could run well…. starting to like the horse racing phrases!

I think
Donaldson will do for me for this week in Europe, tough to make a decent argument for anyone else.

On to the main event, the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick. This is tricky as there is very little course form. Daly won the USPGA here in 1991 but Funk won the Seniors US Open here in 2009. Two more contrasting players you won’t find! It is a pretty long course that will be playing its length after getting a soaking from Hurricane Isaac but its main defence will be its small greens. They should be receptive and from the reports the rough is not be too penal. I expect the scoring to be fairly low again this week and will be looking for a player who has some length and is a good, accurate iron player. A decent short game should come into it a little more than last week as inevitably players will be missing more greens than the generous targets in Boston.

I guess the first guys to consider are
Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Jim Furyk and Steve Stricker. The four US Ryder Cup wild card picks. Wildcards have a tendency to perform the week after receiving news of the captain’s faith. I would have picked three of the four but would not have taken Furyk to Medinah. I understand he brings leadership and experience to the team but others are better suited to that long course. Dustin should have the best chance this week. He is in good nick and has great form after his ‘injury’/suspension that saw him miss April and May. He should go well but 14/1 is a bad price. Snedeker ranks number 1 in putting on tour and has finished 2nd and 6th the last two weeks. I guess you have to putt good when you rank 105th in driving distance, 113th in driving accuracy and 118th in greens in regulation! Not for me when accurate iron play will be rewarded and only 25/1 is on offer. Stricker’s putter warmed up last week and he looked good towards the end. His long game was in good shape too. He is tempting at 33/1 as he ranked inside the top 10 in greens in reg, driving accuracy and strokes gained putting last week. Furyk ranks 170th in driving distance and 162nd in birdies per round and at 50/1 is easily passed over.

I do like
Louis Oosthuizen for this. He played some unreal golf last week leading the field in greens hit. He has finished top 5 in the first two playoff events and there is no reason why he can’t go well again here. It is a shame that he is only 22/1, even in a limited field this is too short to back. Same goes for Rory Mcilroy and Tiger Woods. 13/2 and 7/1 respectively is fair but too short for me, despite their awesome form. Jason Dufner is 25/1 and worth a look but he was 2 over for the final 36 last week after being in a great spot after two rounds. Perhaps best left alone this week. Justin Rose has drifted out to a backable price at 45/1. He missed the cut last week and continues to struggle with the putter. With the scoring set to go low he is scrubbed off the list. Lee Westwood, like Rose, is a nice price at 25/1 but is not quite firing. He is getting closer but not a betting proposition considering the outstanding form of some of his rivals.

Keegan Bradley is the first pick of the week. He struggled in the first two rounds last week without his regular caddy who was called away due to a family emergency. He managed to birdie his final two holes to make the cut on the mark before shooting 63, 69 on the weekend with his caddy, Steve Hale, back on the bag to finish 13th. He has that perfect blend of power and accuracy that should suit Crooked Stick. Last week he ranked 2nd in eagles, 6th in birdies, 11th in driving distance, 11th in greens and 9th in putts per greens in regulation. These mirror his regular stats for the season and should go well at 33/1.

John Senden should have some fire in his belly this week. He will want retribution for his final hole four putt double from 4ft last week. He is in great form too having posted 5 top 20’s in his last 7 starts. He ranks 4th on tour in greens in reg and 14th in total driving. His long game has never been in question though, it has always been about the putter with Senden and despite his final hole calamity last week is improving every week. If it were not for the four putt he would have been ahead of the field average in every round in strokes gained putting which does not sound that impressive but when you consider he ranked 8th in greens hit it is decent. He is 60/1 general and 66/1 with Paddy Power and worth a go.

Zach Johnson has had a few average weeks in a row. His last four starts read 40, 70, 38, 47. He has fallen from 1st in putting to 7th on tour during this time. Last week he ranked a lowly 55th in strokes gained putting. As a result he has drifted out to a juicy 80/1. Crooked Stick has bent grass greens that inevitably will get rather slick and will suit Zach and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back this week.

Finally, yeap, you guessed it,
Bo Van Pelt. Last week he was so average, he ranked between 20th and 40th in every major stat, including his finishing position of 26th. However, he is from Indiana and will enjoy home support this week. We have discussed his stats every week on here and how he is due a win. He is definitely worth persevering with, especially this week at a fair price of 55/1. He did not do a lot wrong in Boston and with only 70 players in the field it is nice to get him at a bigger price than last week!


BMW Championship

1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 55/1
1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 33/1
1 pt each way Zach Johnson @ 80/1
1 pt each way John Senden @ 60/1

KLM Open

2 pts win Jamie Donaldson @ 22/1

Special Bets

0.5 pt each way double Jamie Donaldson and Rory Mcilroy @ 172/1
0.5 pt each way double Jamie Donaldson and Tiger Woods @ 183/1
0.5 pt each way double Jamie Donaldson and Steve Stricker @ 781/1

2012 running total +188.23 points. This weeks investment 15 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf