UA-33754892-1 Archives for 02 October 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Madrid Masters and Frys.Com Open

Last week was close to being huge. Our treble came up by the time the cuts were made. Darren Clarke, Goosen and Reavie all missing the cut helping us win 11.92 points. Donald had his typical solid week finishing in a tie for 9th, his 22nd top 10 of the year. He failed to sparkle on Sunday when in with a shout for at least a place. Jamieson was fairly disappointing and perhaps could have done with worse weather to make it a more demanding test. Tommy Fleetwood gave us great excitement. The young Englishman got to the top of the leaderboard after a brilliant second round and hung around all weekend. It is always a nice feeling to have a 200/1 chance lurking near the top of the leaderboard. He finished in a tie for fifth after missing a good birdie chance on the 72nd hole. The tie was very costly, he shared 5th with two others so only a third of the stake goes on. He won us 7.83 points all the same. So close to being a punchy return.

State side Nick Watney put in the expected big performance but failed to convert chances on Sunday. He finished 2nd to one of the worst ball strikers on tour, Kevin Na. Na putted unbelievably all week but was not really on with his long game! Shame Donald did not push on on Sunday as the each way double with Watney became a loser. Kyle Stanley finished 10th and Spencer Levin got a place. Unfortunately this break down was even worse than Fleetwood’s. A five way share of fifth. The 40/1 chance won us 1pt in the end.

So we won 7.75 points on the week. It had the potential to be so much better on Sunday morning. It brings our 2011 running total up to +181.79 or £1817.90 to a £10 stake.

This week we have the Madrid Masters and the Frys.Com Open, and to be honest I have no great ideas in either event.

Madrid features Luke Donald as the strong favourite. Just 5/1. I like Donald’s game a lot and he has had an impressive year, showing great consistency throughout. However he is not a prolific winner and this course does not look ideal for him. At 7560 yards it will not suit the short hitters. The other main feature of the course is undulating greens. So a long hitting good putter at a value price is what I am looking for. I can’t find one. Colsaerts fits the profile and played well last week but he is two tournaments back from a long injury absence. He is only 20/1. Too short for me. I can’t pick one in Madrid.

The Frys.Com Open is played at CordeValle Golf Club, California. The course features big greens and plenty of chances but in true Trent Jones style there is plenty of well placed trouble. It will be an advantage to be on the fairway, certainly more so than last week. You also have to be tactically astute.

All the excitement this week is around the return of world number 51, Tiger Woods. This is the first time he has played a Fall Series event and he starts the 7/1 favourite. The opening quotes of 8/1 were quickly snapped up. The rest of field is made up of a few household names who are not really firing like Els, Casey and Cabrera and the rest are names only true golf geeks will recognise.

The outcome of this event really revolves around Woods. If he plays well he wins, simple. Rumour has it he is doing just that in practice. A course record 62 was recorded under his name last week at Medalist, his new practice venue. My guess is this last break will have given him some time to sort things out. He has been out the headlines as the Fedex Cup took the limelight. He has finally sorted out his team and most importantly employed a permanent caddy, Joe LaCava. I think the most important factor is he is going to be so hungry for this. He will have put the work in, he will be fit, he will be ready, he will be focused. He will want this.

Like I said this is only my guess. Who really knows but at 7/1 I think he is worth a punt. This would be an OK price in a strong field and I don’t think this event takes much winning. My biggest worry is his putting. It has been poor this year but when his putting is on he is nearly unbeatable. Also Stanford, where he went to University, is fairly close to CordeValle so he will have experienced the course before. I am going to get stuck into the 7/1.

The rest of my shortlist compromises of Cantlay, Molder, Jobe, Levin, Oosthuizen, Haas, Piercy, Campbell and Herron.

Molder 33/1, Jobe 40/1, Levin 25/1, Campbell 40/1, Piercy 40/1 all have the right credentials to go well but are just too short. Cantlay represents decent value at 50/1, as discussed during my Austrian Open preview two weeks ago. The amateur is making his fifth tour start this year and has finished 24th or better in the other four. He got a top 10 at the Travelers Championship were he opened with a 60. I would be a backer but I am concerned with his draw for the first two rounds. He plays with Woods which should be a whole new experience for him. He may thrive, but he may not. I am not going to risk it.

Oosthuizen has a chance here at 33/1. He played well last week in the Dunhill Links, the first time he has been in contention for a while. He will have the taste for it again. However, he will be a little jet lagged and I am not sure he putts well enough to win here.

Tim Herron is a streaky player. He went well last week finishing fifth. He was 13th last year in this event and can go well again. 50/1 is a pretty good price.

Hunter Haas is the other one I want to be with. He finished 10th last week with a closing round of 64. In his last six starts he has three top top 10’s. He is 60/1 and we should get a run out of him at a decent price.

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Frys.Com Open

5 pts Tiger Woods @ 7/1
1 pt each way Tim Herron @ 50/1
1.5pts each way Hunter Haas @ 60/1

Special Bets

2 pt treble. Spencer Levin to bt Paul Casey @ 10/11, Ben Crane to bt Kevin Na @ Evs, Danny Willett to bt Ignacio Garrido @ 10/11. 72 hole match bets

2011 running total +181.79 pts This weeks investment 12 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.