UA-33754892-1 Archives for 02 August 2020 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

USPGA Championship and English Championship

USPGA Championship - Day 4
Winner
0.75 units Scottie Scheffler @ 12/1 (-0.75)

Day 4 Two Balls
1 unit Paul Casey to bt Koepka @ 2/1 (+2)
1 unit Scott Scheffler to bt Dustin Johnson @ 7/4 (-1)


USPGA Championship - Day 2
Winner
0.25 units Scottie Scheffler @ 40/1 (-0.25)

Day 2 Threeballs
1.5 units Jorge Campillo @ 9/4 to beat Li and Cook (-1.5)
0.25 units Ken Tanigawa @ 12/1 to beat Grillo and Tringale (-0.25)
0.5 units Brian Stuard @ 4/1 to beat Furyk and Horschel (-0.5)
1 unit Jazz Janewattananond @ 9/2 to beat Jones and Streelman (-1)
1 unit Sergio Garcia @ 7/2 to bt Mickelson and Rahm (-1)
0.25 units Judd Gibb @ 19/2 to bt Hubbard and Herbert (-0.25)
1.5 units Nick Taylor @ 7/4 to bt Sabbatini and Auterson (-1.5)
1.5 units Rich Beem @ 23/10 to bt Micheel and Beach (-1.5)


English Championship - Day 2
Winner

0.25 units Jack Senior @ 50/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Scott Vincent @ 40/1 (-0.25)


USPGA Championship 2020


TPC Harding Park hosted the WGC Matchplay in 2015, WGC American Express Championship in 2005 and the Presidents Cup in 2009. Forty of this week’s field played in 2015, when it was a par 71, which was also the case for the Presidents Cup and the WGC Amex. More importantly, the routing returns to how the course was supposed to play, rather than the order used to make matchplay more exciting.

Moreover, the challenge remains the same. 7234-yard par 70 and with two drivable par 4s, a chance for decent winds and heavy rough (4 inches), played at sea level, means long and straight driving will be rewarded. If you miss fairways you will miss greens and you will make bogies. Bogey avoidance is always key.

One interesting point from previous editions is the amount of midrange putts made here. The percentage is very high. The greens are flat so good mid length putters like Simpson, Koepka, Rose, Spieth etc. should love it. It also means players are left with less tidying up to do when missing on heavily sloping greens. Weaker putters will love making some longer ones and not have to face so many short, testing ones. Watch out for guys who drive it great but usually are held back by poor putting. Dufner maybe?

My main bet for the week is a young superstar who has gone relatively unnoticed due to the three other young superstars hogging the limelight, in Wolf, Hovland and Morikawa. Scottie Scheffler is only 24 years old, a former US Junior Champion, a Big 12 winner, two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Korn Ferry points winner of the 2019 regular season, 2019 Korn Ferry Finals, and obviously the overall points leader. He is 26
th on the FedEx rankings and 59th in the world. On my rankings he is 20th and playing at the same level as a top 10 player. It looks a matter of time until he gets there.

He ranks 10
th in total driving and is 100/1. He tends to go better at low scoring events, he finished 3rd at the American Express this year. Greens in Palm Springs are pretty flat. I would have him at 50-55/1. He has played two US Opens, both as an amateur, missed one cut and finished 27th in 2017. He can play, just needs to get the putter going.

Elsewhere I am loading the place markets with solid ball strikers and good drivers. The one I really think could be sneaky at big prices is Robert Macintyre. 33/1 a top 10, 12/1 a top 20 looks generous. He drives it good and plays well in the wind.

10/11 about Thomas to beat Koepka over 72 holes looks very big in my view. I know Koepka seems to turn it on at will for the big events, but I would be nearer 8/13 Thomas.

We have an ante post position on Xander Schauffele @ 33/1, now 20/1 best price.


USPGA Championship
Winner

0.25 units Scottie Scheffler @ 100/1 (-0.25)

Top 5
0.25 units Sebastian Munoz @ 66/1 (-0.25)
0.5 units Scottie Scheffler @ 25/1 (+12.5)

Top 10
0.25 units Sebastian Munoz @ 28/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Nick Taylor @ 28/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Harold Varner III @ 22/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Jason Kokrak @ 22/1 (-0.25)
0.75 units Scottie Scheffler @ 10/1 (+7.5)
0.25 units Matthias Schwab @ 18/1 (-0.25)
0.5 units Robert Macintyre @ 33/1 (-0.5)

Top 20
0.75 units Sebastian Munoz @ 10/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Harold Varner III @ 11/1 (-0.75)
0.5 units Nick Taylor @ 12/1 (-0.5)
0.75 units Matthias Schwab @ 7/1 (-0.75)
0.25 units Lucas Herbert @ 22/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Victor Perez @ 20/1 (-0.25)
0.5 units Robert Macintyre @ 12/1 (-0.5)

72 Hole Matches
2.5 units Justin Thomas @ 10/11 to beat Brooks Koepka (-2.5)

1st Round 3 Balls

1.25 units Nate Lashley @ 13/8 to bt Landry and Perry (+2.03)
1.5 units Kurt Kitayama @ 13/8 to bt Werenski and Sowards (+2.44)

English Championship
Winner

0.25 units Thorbjorn Olesen @ 70/1 (-0.25)

Top 5
No Bets

Top 10
0.25 units Massahiro Kawamura @ 25/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Bryce Easton @ 40/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Lars Van Meijel @ 40/1 (-0.25)
0.25 until Louis De Jaeger @ 18/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Adrian Meronk @ 16/1 (-0.25)

Top 20
0.75 units Massahiro Kawamura @ 10/1 (-0.75)
0.25 units Bryce Easton @ 16/1 (-0.25)
0.75 units Maverick Antcliff @ 12/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Ewen Fergussen @ 25/1 (+6.25)
0.75 units Julian Suri @ 6/1 (-0.75)

72 Hole Matches
No bets

1st Round 3 Balls

0.75 units Steve Brown @ 4/1 to beat Hogaard and Fox (-0.75)
0.75 units Thorbjorn Olesen @ 5/2 to beat Harding and Horsfield (+1.88)
0.5 units Oli Wilson @ 7/2 to beat Jimenez and Warren (-0.5)

(Antepost - Already Advised

The 2020 Majors

  • To win the USPGA Championship
  • 0.25 units Xander Schauffele @ 33/1 (-0.25)
  • To win the US Open
  • 0.25 units Justin Thomas @ 18/1
  • To win the US Masters
  • 0.25 units Xander Schauffele @ 28/1

This week's P&L = +11.1 units
This week’s investment = 29.75 units
This week's Outright P&L = +16.75 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 11.5 units
This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -5.65 units
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 18.25 units


2020 Total P&L = +36.6 units

2020 Total Investment = 244.75 units
2020 Total ROI = 14.95%
2020 Outright Bets P&L = +5.76 units
2020 Outright Bets Investment = 162 units
2020 Outright ROI = +3.56%

2020 matches/specials/in running P&L = +30.84 units
2020 matches/specials/in running investment = 82.75 units
2020 matches/specials/in running ROI = 37.28%

2019 total +49.47 units
2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units
2010 total +189.33 units

9 Year Total +460.63 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • • • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • • • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • • • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • • • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • • • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • • • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • • • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • • • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • • • ETC.

Comments