UA-33754892-1 Archives for 02 April 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Masters

The Masters - Round 4 Two Balls

5 points Fowler to bt Spieth @ 11/8 (-5)
7 points Kaymer to bt Grace @ 21/10 (+7.35)
5 points Steele to bt Holmes @ 23/20 (+5.75)

The Masters - Round 3 Two Balls

2 point Treble

McIlroy to beat Kisner @ 8/15 (19.00 GMT)
Rahm to beat Couples @ 4/6 (19.30 GMT)
Fowler to bt Pieters @ 7/10 (19.50 GMT)

The Masters - First Round Leader

2 points each way Brandt Snedeker @ 50/1 (1/4 1-5) (-4)

Great in bad weather as we saw at Torrey Pines last year. It is forecast to blow 30mph so good putters will prosper. Good record at Augusta.

The Masters - Round One 3 balls

1 point trixie (-4)

Kisner @ 15/8 to bt Scott and Sullivan
Swafford @ 10/11 to bt O'Meara and Castro
Hatton @ 9/5 to bt Stenson and Cabrera

The Course

There are very few secrets remaining about Augusta as we enter the 81st edition of The Masters. Although there have been plenty of adjustments over the years, mainly lengthening the course, the test and the character remains unchanged. It appears long on paper at 7435 yards but the elevation changes are generally favour the players and the fairways are cut so short that players get plenty of chase on the ball.

The key at Augusta has always been the approach play. There are so many small ledges that players must try and find. You can be the best putter on the planet but if you can't hit the approach shots in the right place you have no chance. Being a good lag putter with plenty of imagination and experience helps, but even the best are going to be asked to hole out breaking putts from 4-8ft over and over again. It is just not very easy to the ball dead on and around these greens. You have to hit your approaches it in the correct places. Generally underneath the hole and not short sided.

The Weather

Wet early in the week and windy for the practice days, a strong breeze continues into the first two rounds leading to cool, testing conditions on a course playing fairly long and soft. The wind dies, the sun comes out and temperatures rise leading to a traditional, glorious Augusta weekend.

The Perfect Fit

If I had to pick a quality a player must posses to do well at Augusta it is approach play, with an emphasis on distance control. Many look for a bomber who can putt but I am not sure this is all you need at Augusta. On any week a bomber who can putt will be dangerous when they are on and one could win this week, but when you are playing the odds and trying to find a winner the percentages favour a great iron player to do well over a bomber. Also throw into the mix the fast running fairways and the windy conditions forecast for the first two days, a high hitting bomber's advantage is negated somewhat.

The winner will certainly have to milk the par 5s and length will be his friend with those, but the set of par 3s here are the hardest on Tour (3.24) and the par 4s averaged the second highest of last season at 4.24. It is perhaps easier to not give away shots on the par 3s and par 4s rather than relying on gaining them back on the par 5s. The par 5s averaged 4.76 last year. Last year if you had played the par 3s in level you would have gained 3.84 shots on the field for the week, if you birdied every par 5 you would have gained the same amount, level on the par 4s you would have gained 9.6 shots. I would rather find the player who controls his approaches on the 3s and 4s rather than the guy who has the length to birdie all the 5s. Ideally you would like a mixture of all these qualities, but Tiger is not Tiger anymore and he is not here!

So, I want a player who ideally has length but certainly has control of his ball on approach shots. There is a reason why Westwood and Monty used to go well here and it wasn't their power or putting. I want a player who can play chess around here, who has the experience to know where to hit it and can hit it there more often than not. I want him to plot his misses in the right spots and have the control to leave himself easy chips and putts. I also want him to be excellent from 4-8 feet. Players are tested by this length putt at Augusta much more often than anywhere else, especially if they hit it in the wrong places on and around the green. These short putts often have plenty of break in them and become harder and harder as the week goes on.

The Favourites.

Dustin Johnson - (6/1)

Dustin is a very worthy favourite. Since winning the US Open last year he has been immense. All parts of his game are firing and he can't come into a Major with better form or more confidence. But cautiously also perhaps never with so much expectation on his shoulders from others and himself. Can he keep his mind switched off and keep 'cavemaning' it around or will he become aware that he should win? He has the power to rip apart the par 5s and the skill to navigate the 3s and 4s. His achilles heel perhaps is his caddy, his brother Austin. He has always been with Dustin but Dustin barely uses him and a good, experienced caddy can help hugely at Augusta. Especially when trying to keep on top of the wind direction as the course meanders through tall trees or perhaps more importantly, when ones head threatens to come off when patience is lost!

Having said this he is a cool character, his form is outstanding and he has the stereotypical Augusta game. His improved wedge play is a huge plus. People may question his Augusta form but 6th and 4th the last two years shows he is going in the right direction. I wouldn't blame anyone for backing him but his rank of 129th putting from 6ft and in concerns me too much considering his short price.

Rory McIlroy - (8/1)

I think Rory is more ready to win a Masters than ever before and if he does he incredibly completes the career Grand Slam at 27 year of age. If there is one player in the field that can challenge Dustin Johnson when he is at his best it is Rory. If either of these guys play their best they are almost invincible. Like Woods in the old days, play good they win, play ok they might win.

As good as Rory is tee to green he is as bad on and around the green. This is why when he is playing well he can destroy a golf course yet he still has big scores in him. 113th in putting, 134th in putting from 6ft and in and losing almost a third of a shot on the average player per round with his short game tells the story, when his long game is poor his scores become uncontrollable. The short game number is a little inaccurate as he plays more aggressive than most and therefore misses it in worse spots making it harder for his short game to shine, but it does show you that is Rory is not exceptional tee to green he can't win. Woods in his prime could win playing badly because his short game and putting could counter his errors tee to green. Rory needs to be spot on and with such a limited schedule so far this season it is hard to quite know where he is at. Seems a little risky for an 8/1 chance.

Jordan Spieth - (8/1)

Jordan Spieth is very close to fitting the perfect profile for Augusta. Maybe even more so then finishing 2-WIN-2 in his first three starts. I will qualify this; In the past Jordan relied on his wedge game and midrange putting. He now ranks number one on Tour in strokes gained approach. Last year he ranked 162nd in this important category when arriving at Augusta. Statistically he is a better fit than when finishing 2nd or 1st or 2nd!

As a result his putting stats do not look as good, he ranks 39th in strokes gained putting and 92nd putting inside 6ft. It is this 2nd number that concerns me most, but then again he has never been a reliable short putter. 61st in scrambling isn't up to his normal standards, 8th last year coming into this. Perhaps he has put too much emphasis on improving his iron play. Like I said though, I would rather have a good iron player than anything else.

There is not much not to like about Jordan's chances. Expectations could get the better of him but he looks sure to go well especially if Augusta once again agrees with his putter and short game genius.

Rickie Fowler - (20/1)

I like Rickie Fowler a lot for this. He comes out number one my weighted stats and on my adjusted stroke averages. For me this is impossible to ignore.

The thing that has plagued Rickie at Augusta is the big number. He missed the cut last year but finished 5th in 2014 and 12th in 2015. The average number of starts at Augusta before winning your first in 6, this is now his 7th. He has learnt a lot I expect. Last year he was going well on the first day before making 8 on the 13th. He was 80 yards away on the fairway in two. You can't afford mistakes like that anywhere, but certainly not at Augusta where you need to keep momentum going, especially on the par5s.

42nd in putting from 6ft and in, 9th in strokes gained putting, 28th in stokes gained around the green (3rd scrambling) and 3rd strokes gained approach, 1st in adjusted scoring, 2nd in total strokes gained, 2nd in the all around ranking, 14th in par 3 scoring and 3rd in par 4 scoring all add up pretty well. Add in his win a few weeks ago at the Honda, a 3rd last week in Houston where he was making birdies for fun, 4 top 10s in 7 starts with those stats and the result is a player who fits the profile, is full of confidence and is over twice the price of the closely matched Spieth. Sure Spieth has better course form but Rickie has better current form.

If he can limit his mistakes and plot his way around smartly, which his improved short game should allow, there is no reason why he can't win his first Major and put on the green jacket on Sunday evening.

Hideki Matsuyama - (20/1)

Hideki has cooled down a lot since his blistering start to the year. His putter has gone cold and that has caused the cool down effect (185th in strokes gained putting and 125th inside 6ft). The Japanese star does have back to back top 10s at Augusta which is no surprise as he is an excellent iron player, but those putting stats and his current form make him hard to back, although he putts better on fast greens (Memorial winner).

Jason Day - (20/1)

Unfortunately his mothers fight against lung cancer will be a huge distraction to his play as well as his preparations. Woods said, "You should always play for yourself and never anybody else" when his father was terminally ill. This will be Day's challenge. If he can channel his focus he can contend and certainly has the ability to win, but outside factors make him a big risk to back. Unfortunately I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't complete 72 holes, but it would be an emotional win if he did defy the odds.

Jon Rahm - (25/1)

The young, Spanish sensation has proven his ability and thankfully we have been backing him since he was an amateur and profited accordingly at some nice prices. To see him at 25/1 seems a little excessive though. 125th in putting inside 6ft, 56th in putting and 93rd in scrambling show he does most of his damage with his long game, where he ranks 3rd in strokes gained driving and 12th in strokes gained approach. He is riding the wave right now so it would not be a surprise to see him get into contention, but surely winning this is a huge ask on debut, despite the last two Champions winning on just their second visits to Augusta. The most likely of the first timers though, (2/1).

The Value

Russell Henley - 80/1

Last week's winner has a nice profile for Augusta and looks set to roll his form over into this week. 80/1 with 8 places, 1/4 the odds (Skybet) has plenty of appeal too. 26th putting inside 6ft, 6th in strokes gained putting, 36th in strokes gained approach, 33rd SSG driving with the only horror stat being 125th in strokes gained around the green. He has been working with Tim Clarke on his short game, which seems like a strange choice, wasn't it Clarke who couldn't chip?! He ranks 4th in my adjusted scoring and will be eager to get going again after making 10 birdies in his last round in Houston in the wind.

This is his 4th Masters and hasn't cracked the top 20 yet but I put him in as a very similar player to Snedeker, who has had plenty of success at Augusta. Worth chancing.

Tyrrell Hatton - 50/1

On Masters debut but so much to like about the young Englishman, well about his game anyway!! 6th on my adjusted scoring, 2nd on PGA Tour adjusted scoring, 8th in putting from 6ft and in, 1st in putting, 6th in strokes gained approach, 13th in driving but amazingly 199th in scrambling, which is known as the strength of his game in Europe.

He is so bullish that it wouldn't be a surprise to see him contend. A little like Willett last year, they both have the arrogance and belief to get it done on the biggest of stages. The only difference was Willett had lead a Major before. He says he is just trying to run with it and not turn his brain on and think. If he can keep that attitude who knows, but again he is worth a go at 50/1, 8 places, 1/4 odds with Skybet.

Adam Hadwin - (100/1)

Has been in great form and a slick putting Canadian has won a green jacket before (Weir 2003). Big ask for a guy playing his first Masters and only his second Major (2011 US Open finished 39th). Maybe best watched this time, but has the game.

Kevin Kisner - (100/1)

Kisner is worth noting as he has been flirting with form of late. He is a streaky putter who statistically doesn't shine (134th inside 6ft, 46th overall) but does control his irons well ranking 7th in strokes gained approach. The reason why he is worth noting is for a 'small name' player he gets involved in big events. He lost in a playoff for the Players (to Fowler), finished 2nd in WGC HSBC Champions. He has only won once (RSM Classic 2015) but has lost 3 playoffs in a 5 year on and off PGA Tour career (has had his card the last 3 years). He is sneaky good, almost a bit of a Kuchar type player.

Marc Leishman - (66/1)

The Aussie played with Scott in the final round here in 2013 when Scott won and Marc finished 4th. He played good under the gun as he did a couple of weeks ago when winning at Bay Hill. Bay Hill form translates well to Augusta, more to do with the timings I think than the courses.

He ranks 11th in my adjusted scoring, 22nd in putting inside 6ft, 3rd in strokes gained putting, 56th strokes gained around the green but 95th SG approach and 74th driving. A lot to like if his ball striking is on.

Daniel Berger - (70/1)

Young, aggressive American who debuted with a top 10 at Augusta last year (only one in last 2 years to debut in top 10). Finished 5th last week where he ranked 2nd in strokes gained tee to green. He ranks 13th in my adjusted scoring, 31st putting inside 6ft, 19th SG putting, 145th SG around the green, 78th SG approach, 41st driving. If he maintains his striking from last week he could be a factor again. It was fairly windy last week in Houston which bodes well not just for him, but also Fowler and Henley, who will face at least two days of wind here too.

The Guys We Would Like To See Win, But Can They?

Rose and Garcia are the two that first spring to mind, but I guess I should include Els too, who deserves a green jacket.

Garcia (40/1) would be the one I would like to see win most. He has a poor Masters record, 5 top 25s in 18 appearances. He is in good form though and is the best driver of the ball on Tour this year. He ranks a lowly 81st in SG approach, 29th short game, 193rd putting and 184th inside 6ft. It looks unlikely as much as I would like to see it. The fiancée vibe will really have to work for him!

Rose (25/1) has a good Masters record and finished 2nd here in 2015. 4 top 10s in 11 starts at Augusta, 9 top 25s in 11 starts. Also 3 top 5s in 2017 so far. Rose and the commentators claim his claw grip is working but he ranks of 147th inside 6ft and 74th SG putting, that suggests there is still a large space to improve into. Add to that a lowly rank of 72nd in SG approach and it suggests in may not be his year again this year.

Els is a funny one as in everyone blames his putting. Last year from The Masters through end of season he was the best putter on Tour. This year his putting has slipped but not as badly as the rest of his game. 194th in driving and 185th in approach mean he has to really find something from somewhere to contend this week.

Jason Day remains the best chance of a fairytale story.

Enjoy…….. JK.

The Masters - Outright

5 points each way Rickie Fowler @ 20/1 (Skybet 1/4 odds 1-8) (-10)

1.25 points each way Russell Henley @ 80/1 (Skybet 1/4 odds 1-8) (-2.5)

2 points each way Tyrrell Hatton @ 50/1 (Skybet 1/4 odds 1-8) (-4)

The Masters - 72 Hole Matches (bet 365)

6 points Berger to beat Walker @ 7/10 (-6)

6 points Kisner to beat Zach Johnson @ 10/11 (+5.46)

6 points Rahm to beat Matsuyama @ 10/11 (-6 )

(Already Advised)

Antepost 2017 Season
4 points Rory McIlroy to win a Major in 2017 @ 2/1 (Bet Victor)

This week's P&L = -24.94
This week’s investment = 34.5 points

This week's Outright P&L = -16.5 points
This weeks's Outright Investment = 16.5 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -8.44 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 41 points

2017 Total P&L = +19.82
2017 Total Investment =  628.14 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  -34.63
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 226.88 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  +54.45
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 423.4 points

2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +469.87 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.