UA-33754892-1 Archives for 01 September 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Omega European Masters

Last Week:

We were close to a big week last week. It was a good week but it could have been something special. Dyson finished 18th. A good effort after an appalling finish to his opening round. Chris Wood was the opposite. An opening 66 made him look like a great bet but he fizzled out through the remaining 54 holes. Our new French hero, Gregory Bourdy, won at 40/1. Of course it was a shame we did not have more than 0.5 points win on but that was the nature of the weeks staking plan.

Bourdy did however give us a great chance to hit the jackpot with our each way doubles in the States. Bradley looked the most likely man, entering round 4 in 9th. He double bogied the par 5 second and never threatened thereafter. Snedeker got up to 10th during round 4 but disappeared as quickly as he arrived. Matt Jones, our each way single missed the cut, so it was left to Spieth.

The 20 year old made 2 double bogies in round 3 when right in contention. It looked as though his race was run. A stunning, best of the week, 62, shot him back up the leader board and into a tie for 4th. Unfortunately Garcia and Kuchar birdied the last meaning it tied places 4 thru 7, so our stake was diluted, but it still showed us a nice profit. We finally had a good bit of final round excitement! Spieth has had an unbelievable rookie season on Tour. His 4th here meant he just missed out on automatically qualifying for the President’s Cup. He is now mixing it alongside the likes of Furyk, Simpson and Dustin Johnson for a captain’s pick. Many fancy him to get it too.

Zach Johnson holed a 25 foot putt on the final hole at the Deutsche Bank to win a place on the team. However, he rode his luck to get there. He started his third round with a double bogey before rain stopped play. It was decided to cancel the start of the round and go back out in 3 balls and playing preferred lies. Johnson’s double was cancelled out! As was Luke Donald’s birdie!

Anyway, Bourdy won us 20 points and the each way double paid 37.13 points. We lost 13.5 points elsewhere meaning we showed a profit of 43.63 points for the week. We are now -76.88 points for the year. Fighting back!

This Week:

Omega European Masters:

This is a great event. It has a rich history with great winners and a golf course in a stunning setting. I am fairly keen on a few players but it is a strange market.

The players I like are Jamie Donaldson, Jimenez, Rumford, Dyson, Koepka, Wattel, Felipe Aguilar, Andersson Hed, Canizares, Lahiri and De Silva.

We can take Aguilar 80/1, Andersson Hed 80/1 and De Silva 100/1 out straight away. This is what I mean by a strange market. The favourites are very decent players and in my view all appear overpriced or underrated. The outsiders appear way too short in general. I thought these three may offer some sneaky value but was stunned to see how they have been priced up. They are unbackable prices about outsiders in a decent line up.

Lahiri is an interesting one. In June he finished 2nd on the Asian Tour and posted back to back wins on the Indian Tour. He has only played once since, finishing 55th in Russia. He has three missed cuts to his name at Crans-sur-sierre but if he has maintaines that sort of form he may be worth a punt at 250/1.

There have been a number of changes to the course since last year. Mainly water hazards and ditches put in to toughen it up a little. The scoring tends to go fairly low, given the right conditions. The changes appear to have been very well received by the players but it should not alter the ‘course form’ too much.

One man who knows this course better than most is Miguel Angel Jimenez. He has a house on the first and has an astonishingly good record here. We backed him last year when he opened with a 77 and still finished 11th, posting rounds of 65,66,66 after the opening disaster. He has played in this for over 20 years. He seemed to struggle with his new irons last week finishing 106th, but at 25/1 he is worth consideration.

Brett Rumford has undergone a remarkable resurgence in fortune. He is winning a lot for man who struggled to win for years. His great short game is well suited to this. He has finished 6th and 8th the last two weeks and also has two top 20’s here in his last three starts. Like Jimenez, he has to be considered at 33/1.

Donaldson also fits into this price category, he is available at 28/1. He has finished 23-3-9 here in the last three editions and has been in decent form registering a 10th, a 6th and a 32nd before finishing 17th in the WGC at Firestone and withdrawing from the USPGA. He has had three weeks off now and should be ready to go again. 28/1 is fair.

As I already mentioned, Dyson fought hard over the weekend in Wales and played better than his 18th suggested. He has bits of form here including a 7th in 2009. I expect him to go well at 35/1 but in a competitive heat I would want a slightly bigger price.

Brooks Koepka is a class act and is settling into life on the bigs boys tour with relative ease. He has finished 28th and 18th the last two weeks and this should suit his aggressive approach. He will also be very motivated after his close friend Peter Uihlein came so close last week. 40/1 is ok, but there is not much value in it for a debutant on a fairly unique and quirky course.

Having mentioned the fact that being a debutant is not ideal here, I will now tell you that Romain Wattel finished 2nd here on debut last year! He has some pretty mediocre form of late but goes well on these types of courses. Other courses that I would put as similar are Durban Country Club, where he finished 2nd in the SA Open and Korea, where he finished 4th, 2 shots outside a 3 way playoff. 55/1 looks fair considering that and is worth an each way play.

The final one to mention is Alejandro Canizares. He has not done much since finishing 10th in the French Open in June but has gone well here, finishing 11th in ’08 and 9th in ’11. For me, considering Andersson Hed’s price, Da Silva’s price, Aguilar’s price etc then 175/1 about Canizares is huge. He is a superior player to the aforementioned and many others above him in the market. He has to be a bet.

Now the hard thing. I want to back Jimenez, Rumford and Donaldson as well as a couple of outsiders. The problem is they are 25/1, 33/1 and 28/1 so the each way returns are going to struggle to cover the other bets. However, there can only be one winner so backing three players win only is not ideal either. I am going to back them predominantly to win and have smaller place bets so if two of them get placed they cover, which would be a necessity even if we were having standard each way bets.

Omega European Masters

2 pt win and 1 pt place Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 25/1 (+4.25 points)

2 pt win and 1 pt place Brett Rumford @ 33/1 (-3 pts)

1.5 pt win and 0.75 pt place Jamie Donaldson @ 28/1 (-2.25 pts)

1 pt each way Romain Wattel @ 66/1 (-2 pts)

0.75 pts each way Alejandro Canizares @ 175/1 (+32.81 points)

0.25 pts each way Anirban Lahiri @ 250/1 (-0.5 pts)

(for the 2pt win and 1pt place bets just have 1pt win and 1pt each way)

Special Bets

0.5 pts each way Alejandro Canizares @ 150/1 to be first round leader (-1 pt)

2013 running total = -76.88 pts. This week’s investment 13.25 points. This weeks P&L = +28.31 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.